Do sets with bad pull rates or good pull rates perform better?

Market
1

Hey Guys

I was just buying some crown zenith tin because it’s really a fun set to open.
While I was doing that I was reading the EX Blister discussion and this got me thinking.

Crown Zenith is an amazing set with great pull rates. But these pull rates result in cards being overall not as valuable. Where in contrast you have Brilliant Stars with worse Pull rates but more valuable cards.

Also factoring in that people argue weather sets with chase cards or sets that are fun to perform better.

My overall question is. If we leave modern aside and focus older areas until X&Y. Did the sets with bad pull rates, but expensive chase cards perform better, or sets with good pull rates but overall not so expensive cards? Only talking about a comparison of sets with similar print runs.

What is your observation?

2

You also have to consider print run which will affect the price of the set and the cards in the set. I would argue print run for a set affects the price of that sets sealed and chase cards more than pull rates, although pull rates are a big effect as well.

1 Like
3

Oh right, I should have clarified.
You are totally right that the print run is a very important factor. That’s why I was focused on sets within the same era. I will edit it to clarify. Thanks for the Input :slight_smile:

4

i mean, if you look back to something like 1st edition base set, you had pretty good pull-rates. that set performs well. though, that could be related to it being first, very low supply, etc. but, if you look to ex era, these sets with god awful pull-rates/ bad EV, perform better. though, the same could also be said that the highest performing ex era sets like deoxys also have very low supply.

I’d like to think 1st edition base set has generally good EV, in the sense that all the cards from those packs have value (may not get u back to what you paid, but still), whereas something like deoxys is awful. 90% of the time you’re gonna end up buying a $600+ booster pack and getting $3 of commons and uncommons, plus no hit. im not sure how the ratios compare, relative to the cost of each booster, but yea.

however, if we jump to modern, something like cp6 has generally great pull-rates, but again, low supply. what about tag allstars? pretty decent supply, decent pull-rates, solid growth today.

basically, i think this answer has changed a bit over time. but the constant for performance seems to be low supply, relative to the market. essentially, if the market continues to grow in size, or at least interest in a specific set, theoretically, once a set is out of print, it’s supply will hit that low threshold and grow.

i think whether a set will grow more or less once you hit that supply threshold depends on whether it’s a fun set to open, collect and enjoy. that’s also going to include if there is a rare, highly desirable chase card inside. to me, it is kinda of about what makes a set special. anniversary sets, sets with strong themes, sets with good art, good cards, very popular pokemon, special rarity (like shiny vault), etc.

Off the top of my head, I’d say sets like VMAX Climax, VSTAR universe, shiny star v, eevee heroes for Japanese. Probably Celebrations, Hidden Fates, Evolving Skies, for english. I also think sets like S9 & S10 are great sets, but whether they will perform “well” over time-- well, who knows.

sorry for the novel, just thought I’d word-vomit all my thoughts about sets lol

1 Like
5

Thanks for the word vomit/novel, I really liked it :smiley:
In the end this threat was not really born out of investment reasons but more out curiosity of the workings behind the performance.

You raise some good points with EX and Base set. But I would not compare WTC Sets with the sets after because WOTC sets have a different appeal or at least more factors playing into them if you compare them to lets say BW/X&Y era.

Also, I think Japanese sets are different from English releases. I would value VSTAR universe different from Crown zenith. Simply due to supply and demand being different. Not saying there aren’t more factors coming into play here.

When you say sets that are fun to open perform well, then shouldn’t sets like BS and ES perform worse than CZ since CZ has way better pull rates and the overall sentiment of the forum was also that CZ was one of the most fun to open Sets of all the SWSH era.

So comparing sets with an overall similar print run. Is the most decisive factors simply the sum of the value of sets cards? Or how much does the pull rate factor in? (here I would make an example, but I can’t think of two comparable sets pre SWSH with vastly different pull rates)

6

Set composition matters too. SV and CZ have probably the same rates but SV has lame cards so most are cheap now. CZ has tons of fan favorites and many cards are maintaining the over 20$ price point raw which is great

1 Like
7

Sets within the same era can have quite different print runs. Like how ultra prism had lower print run than the sets before and after, although Im not sure how it compares now after the new print run in like 2020. But one set the the next can have very different print runs throughout the entire tcg.

1 Like