I voted disagree. The question is intentionally universal so my overall answer is not as nuanced as my actual opinion. First I think it is helpful to define what a bubble is. For something to be a bubble, there needs to be a large increase in prices which diverge significantly from the intrinsic values of the items. Actual economics tells us that it’s impossible to identify a bubble until after it has “popped” which is important to keep in mind.
For the people arguing in favor of a speculative bubble, I see three major reasons why. First, the comparatively high prices for modern cards (especially waifus). Second, hoarding of sealed product with the intention of future growth. Third, the nature of Japanese marketplaces and the card market that make it easier to artificially inflate prices.
- Waifus + high prices
I see this sentiment a lot when it comes to waifu cards. I am not super familiar with the market, but in my understanding it is not so much a Pokemon market as a wider waifu market in Japan. Put differently, the people buying these cards are not just Pokemon collectors, they’re waifu collectors. You can see similar insane prices in things like Weiss cards, hololive cards, anything with anime women. Pokemon’s massive popularity makes their waifu cards huge chases for waifu collectors. Because these people are paying high prices because the cards feature allegedly attractive anime women (literally an intrinsic property), I don’t think that can be classified as speculation, or at least the role of this part of the market decreases the role of speculation in the price. This also explains why the prices are so significant when compared to other old Pokemon cards. People buying these cards simply aren’t making those comparisons.
- Sealed product hoarding
There’s really a tale of two sets here. You’ve got things like VSTAR Universe and VMAX Climax, which are absolutely incredible S-tier sets (VSTAR Universe is arguably the greatest set ever produced) but were printed to a degree that prices are relatively affordable. But then some main-series sets like Violet ex are triple MSRP a month after release. Pokemon Japan seems to prioritize printing certain sets over others, so I see both sides here. “People are hoarding” is an abstract point that is hard to quantify but this is where I can possibly agree with the bubble argument, we just don’t know how much is being hoarded. However, with the barrier to entry for Japanese modern being MUCH higher than English, I would have a hard time saying hoarding is anywhere near the level of English.
- Japanese Market Manipulation
The idea that systems can be gamed doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be/are being gamed. This is another point that is very hard to argue because you can’t know the definitive cause of prices and if/how much any manipulation may influence them. Scott already hit the point that the ssize of the market makes it much harder to actually manipulate. But there’s another problem however, the idea that all “manipulated” or artificial demand is bound to eventually be corrected isn’t necessarily the case. Some of the OGs may remember back when UnlistedLeaf hyped up some Pikachu card (I think it was one of the Battle Festa full arts) as being the rarest card in the world. The price shot up immediately and everyone said it was just hype from the video. But then…the price never went down and in fact went up from there.
Overall, we can’t be sure whether we’re in a bubble unless it pops. Right now, I agree more with the idea that there are clear, underlying, justifiable reasons other than pure speculation and euphoria that lead to the prices being what they are. Nobody can deny the element of speculation present in paying thousands of dollars in childrens anime trading cards though.