Hey guys, wanted to glean as much insight as possible on this three card promo set. I would love to own the whole set, but I’d like to understand the distribution process a bit more.
From what I can gather:
Given out at 8-player tournaments
These are given in a blind pack, with a 1-in-3 chance of obtaining any given one
You can figure out what card is in the pack by shining a light through it…! So buying a random pack would be stupid, since they’re being priced at the expected value of a Lillie.
I expect prices to go down over time, but…
My main question:
Does anyone know how many of these tournaments there will be? I can’t imagine the ~10-15 total promos between the three currently available will be the only ones, but if they are, I’ll suck it up and pay for the set.
Thanks for the thread @cinnaminhbun . And also thanks for the link @rattlebear , it contains some information I didn’t knew about yet. As a FA Supporter collector, I had my eyes on these as well, but considering the limited amount thus far on eBay and Yahoo Japan, I didn’t want to create a thread in case someone saw it as an opportunity to buy them before me. I actually have the Guzma and Acerola incoming (I definitely overpaid, but that’s alright. I compare these to The Masked Royal 085/SM-P promo, which is limited to 100 copies and were also given at a mini tournament event, which went from 1k to 3.5k (for PSA-10) in 1.5 year time. Unless it turns out there are a lot more printed than I now think, these will definitely hold value over time.)
Here’s what I do know thus far (mostly from Bulbapedia):
They are in special random packs of the Extra Battle Day events, for which this pack contains one of these three promos.
Depending on the available places of a particular venue, people could either sign up on the event day themselves, or enter a lottery to reserve their place on the Players Club website.
The first event was open between September 17 and 24, 2009, with the results announced on September 27, 2019. The cards we see on the market thus far are from this first event.
The second event will be open between October 11 and 18, 2019, with results being announced on October 25, 2019.
Each tournament consists of 3 rounds between groups of up to 8 people depending on attendance. The ranking of players was determined in this order:
Number of matches won;
When equal: difference between number of Prize cards taken and number of Prize cards taken by an opponent over 3 matches;
When equal: Number of Prize cards taken over 3 matches;
When equal: Head-to-head record;
When equal: rock-paper-scissors (although the losing participant of this rock-paper-scissors were still given a random pack as consolation prize)
I’ve already send a message to the two sellers I bought my Guzma and Acerola from, in the hope they’ll have some actual numbers. Are we talking about 100 each; 200 each; 500 each? Depending on the quantity, it greatly affects the price I’m willing to pay for the missing Lillie, which is advertised as 1.75-2.5 times the prices of the other two…
What I do know in terms of numbers:
We now there are date-ranges for the event. The ‘October’ event between September 17 and 24 and the ‘November’ event between October 11 and 18.
The participants are split in up to 8 persons per group.
What we don’t know and I’m mainly interested in:
At how many venues are these events taking place?
How many participants were there in total at the venues?
Hello!
So I have been watching the situation, especially with the price of the Lillie. The first listing on Ebay was $780. Wow I wish I would have bought it then. The asking price is now over 1500, even in Japan. Here is the real bit of news… There is according to the Pokemon Organized Pokemon Play website a total of 116 tournaments upcoming in the month of October. I checked the website today and half of the tournaments for this weekend were canceled! This may be due to the storm approaching Japan.
If you all hear any more information regarding these cards please let me know. I really want to purchase the Lillie card, but I am definitely fearful that the price will only go up!
Why would you think this? They made a tournament and listed exactly how many spots were open per event and they didn’t make enough cards? Let’s made an event that we need 100 cards for any only print 50. Stores are not keeping the cards, for most stores the cards would only pay 2-3 days wages. Get caught and cut off being a Pokemon GYM will cost them a lot more. Plus these are almost all corporate stores not mom and pop shops that might have shady ownership. Instead of coming up with crazy reasons for things you should probably just ask simple questions first.
The tournaments are not 100% cancelled. Pokemon already posted that they might go on, their system only allows basically yes/no and not maybe. You are supposed to check with the individual stores to make sure. They also state events are only postponed. Again, the event page doesn’t offer the option to say postponed and when the event will take place due to the postponement.
Now for the actual reason for the cancellations. The category 5 hurricane that is hitting Tokyo and the surrounding area this weekend. On Saturday 99% of flights are already cancelled out of Tokyo and train service is being stopped for many lines.
There is no shady business going on.
There will be more cards. Prices will probably drop. But maybe not as low as before as prices might go higher as this weekend there won’t be many cards given out.
Shady Tip - Don’t buy packs. They will almost 100% contain Guzma as it is possible to tell what card a pack contains.
Thank you Mulder for your reply. I truly was not trying to throw stones and I am just trying to have a discussion and share my thoughts and hear from others as well. I definitely think it’s a good idea then to wait as more copies hit the market. Lastly I hope that everyone in Tokyo will be safe as that is far more important some Pokemon cards. Oh, and yes if anyone has updates please let us know. I will be sure to do the same.
Here’s a bit more information on numbers from the first seller I contacted:
Since I wasn’t sure whether those 115 tournament locations will be spread among the two dates, or if they are held twice on each location on both dates, I asked the seller for clarification. I assume it would be divided, so 115 tournaments in total in September-October, but I wasn’t sure. Here is their response:
So there would be 230 random packs in total (so roughly 77 of each of these promos if equal distribution). This is assuming the information the seller gave me is accurate of course!! I’ve only just started researching myself, so don’t take all this as fact! And there are of course some more cards printed or available which weren’t given at the events. Still, from what I know thus far, there seem to be less than 100 of each card (given the information the seller gave me is correct and accurate).
I already have all three cards incoming right now. That first day I saw them I waited it out a bit. It was only a single seller on eBay, and none on Yahoo Japan, so I figured the seller had a monopoly and I hoped more would pop up below that price. Next day that seller had already sold one, and he doubled his prices… Sigh… At that point I bought Guzma and Acerola through Best Offers, and I purchased the Lillie a few days later. I know I’ve overpaid, but considering the limited amount available and the fast increase in price in just a few days, I decided to buy them now instead of waiting for October 25th for that second batch.
Hey Quuador,
Very good information, thank you! I just have one question. So according to the schedule website the 115 tournaments are all in October. The November tournaments have not been scheduled yet. So if the November tournament has the same prize packs and the same number of tournaments should we double the roughly 77 Lillie Copies to 154? I figure even if there are 154 copies total I don’t see the price coming down at all. There just wont be enough copies to meet the demand. I am thinking about putting an offer in tonight. What do you think? Thanks!
The November tournaments have been scheduled for October 11-18, for which winners will be announced on October 25th. I’m not sure why they call it the October and November events instead of September and October to be honest… since the ‘October event’ took place on September 17-24 and the ‘November event’ takes place on October 11-18. As for your question, I was wondering the same thing and actually mentioned this in my post above. According to the seller I bought my Acerola and Lillie from, he said there are 115 tournaments in total spread among the dates. Unless I somehow misunderstood the messages I quoted above that the seller send me, or if the seller made a mistake.
I personally think the demand is high enough to keep the prices going up for a short while until they’ll settle, which is why I’ve already bought all three copies. But feel free to use your own judgement, or contact some sellers for more information yourself as well.
Hey everyone,
I was just checking in to see if there is any more information about the distribution of the Lillie card. I did pick my up on Ebay, but I have still been following up on Mercari and Yahoo Japan to see about listings and prices. The price isn’t really dropping, but there actually around 30 listings on Mercari and Yahoo Japan. There are still 76 tournaments to be hosted, so I feel like the estimate of 77 might be a little low, but we will see! Thanks everyone I have enjoyed our conversation!
To my understanding the November dates aren’t announced yet and will be on the 25th of October. The link is kinda confusing but its not the winners of the events announced on the 25th its winners of the raffle for who get guaranteed entry into the events in November. I also believe at each event there can be multiple winners. That link shows an example of an event with 65 people. Groups of 8 compete and out of each group of 8 one person gets a pack… although i cant guarantee this info because i haven’t spoken to any shop owners. Ive have talked to an ebay seller who says the extra battle day events will be held in November though.
As for price i believe you’ll see a decrease in all the cards price in the next couple weeks. Theres going to be an over saturation of high priced cards and they won’t sell. Already on ebay guzma cards are showing up for 500 and i expect them to decrease more and more as more events are held. As for lillie the price will always remain higher but i dont see it sticking at the $2000+ range in the next couple months.
Earlier today i saw the buylist price of a shop i was visiting. They are buying this card at ¥100,000. They usually have 30% markup, so from that data i would assume they resell at ¥130,000.
What i am more concerned about is how the 2nd batch of prizes will turn out. This first batch there is reportedly a very minor issue (for lack of a better definition) on the upper left corner of the front of the card. Didnt know about it until a friend in Osaka pointed it out, at which point i looked at my copy and found it. However, the sample size is too small to make conclusions at the moment.
Sure thing. Im on a bus on the way to Osaka now to meetup with my friend. He has my Guzma and Lillie, so I will post the findings here once we have a chat.
So i finally talked to the guy in person.
Seems i misinterpreted his previous msgs.
Let me just get this tldr out of the way:
There is no factory defect, it was just a misunderstanding on my part (having different tongues, things get lost in translation).
The problem: back of card, upper left corner.
Some kind of “watermark” that looks like it was wet by a drop of water then dried with a hair blower. (No pics, he didnt bring it).
I showed him my card, and we looked at other cards in some shops, the issue isnt there. Told me i was too picky with the pinpoint foil issue i showed him. Lol
Tldr: false alarm, relax, we good.
You guys have probably seen it on some websites, but if you want pics, i’ll post them on my collection thread.
I actually have the Guzma and Acerola incoming (I definitely overpaid, but that’s alright. I compare these to The Masked Royal 085/SM-P promo, which is limited to 100 copies and were also given at a mini tournament event, which went from 1k to 3.5k (for PSA-10) in 1.5 year time. Unless it turns out there are a lot more printed than I now think, these will definitely hold value over time.)
