Just want to hear your opinion on what is the better/smarter buying strategy in the current climate: Disregard the cheaper cards on your want list and save up for the most expensive cards, or buy everything from your want list that you can afford at the next chance?
Until recently, the case was pretty clear-cut to me. I assumed that saving up for the most expensive card is the smart move, because whenever cards increase in price, the most expensive ones usually make the biggest jumps. That’s not surprising, because even if both a cheap and an expensive card increase by 10%, that’s a lot more of additional Ben Franklins for the expensive card.
However, the current situation of prices rising like crazy makes me doubt my strategy, for several reasons. For one, I see so many of the (still affordable) cards on my want list increase drastically in price. One was $200 4 weeks ago, now it’s at $1000. And many other cards on my list behave in a similar way. On the opposite end, my chase card (which is at the top of a mini set) will increase in value drastically as well, even though it doesn’t get sold often, because the other cards from the mini set rise in value and that influences the top card passively. It’s become so bad that even with my strategy of saving up every penny I make, I might not be able to save up money faster than the price of the chase card rises.
So the dilemma I’m in right now is the following: Do I continue to save up money in hopes to get my chase card one day and take the risk of just being too late to the party for this while also missing out on the current deals for the more affordable cards on my list? Or do I kiss good-bye to my main goal and settle for the cards I can afford right now before even those become super expensive? I also want to add that in my case, buying the chase card in a lower grade is almost impossible due to a lack of availability. It’s either go big or go home…
Maybe you find yourselves in a similar position, and can give some advice. Thanks!
I’m in the same dilemma to be honest. I had just switched onto purchasing 1st ed holos before the crazy storm and now they’re all double in price. I think to myself, do I bite the bullet and purchase them now before they get even higher and increase FOMO? Or do I focus on the cards that have barely moved in price/got cheaper and get them purchased?
The reality is, although nobody knows, I personally can’t see the market massively dropping again. So if you have the finances and don’t want to adjust your goals, suck it up and buy the cards. If your finances mean you’re being priced out, then you’re probably better of sticking to those cheaper cards on your list. The reality is there that you may never be able to afford those cards, but that’s not necessarily the be-all end all, everyone has to adjust their goals at some point in life as the priorities in life change.
You’ll drive yourself crazy with this one… My opinion is that these price increases will not continue at the pace we’ve seen in the last 2 months. I believe they’ll level off for a few months. So, if you missed the boat on the price rise, save up for the expensive cards. But nobody really knows, so its just a gamble.
i second this
prior to this sharp rise in prices i would have said buy your other cards first. why? cause prices typically move in tandem. A zard going from 20k to 50k might be tough to swallow, but along the way if you bought the $200 cards they would gone up to $500 tho. in a sense, by buying the cheaper cards, you’ve helped “hedge” some of that risk
but after this sharp rise, i think it’s too late. odds are theyre not gonna go from 1000 to 2000 anytime soon if they just moved from 200 to 1000. so focus on the big fish, but dont be adverse to picking up some bargains if you see them along the way
Population will effectively not move for 1st edition base holos. So I think you’re safe there. For other cards you have to think about the supply. If you’re going for ungraded that’s one thing. If you are going for graded what does the pop look like now and potentially in the future? For many sets, there are probably a LOT of ungraded copies sitting out there. When prices rise, it will draw these ungraded copies into the market. Demand could still outweigh supply though and cause prices to rise, nobody knows. I like to look at the lead card or cards of a set to try and get a sense of the potential ungraded population. For example, look at the gold star pop from an EX series. These are the rarest cards from the set. For example Gold Star Charizard from Ex dragon frontiers (pull rate 1/4 boxes, it’s actually 1/2 boxes for gold star but mew is also in that set). The card has had 1000 copies submitted. That pop is probably stable and a good floor for how much ungraded product is out there for any given card. #69 trapinch reverse holo has only had 4 copies submitted. But at gem mint, it’s a pop one, so on ebay it might say “low pop, ultra rare”. But it really should say only 1 of 4 graded copies out of thousands! You get the point
Exactly! My advice echoes these statements, seeing as how the price jumped so much, they wont continue in the same drastic fashion but will retain their value and continue growing.
To answer your question directly - it is advisable to go for the “big fish” first, as the prices may not continue to skyrocket, but they will continue to increase. If you can manage to reel in that big fish, then your battle is half over and you won’t experience disappointment later at how significant the price has increased. However, if you come across a great deal on a different card you are looking for, don’t pass that up either as good deals are hard to come by anymore.
Thanks for all of your replies! I think I will stay on course and go after the big card, no matter how many cheaper cards I have to ignore for now. If I succeed, you will hear about it in 1 to 2 years.
@miguelito, you make a good point. If I don’t buy now but manage to buy the chase card eventually (and I will, unless it goes to 100k or some BS), I can look back and won’t regret not buying cheaper cards. But if I continue to buy other cards but never achieve my main goal, it will leave a foul taste in my mouth forever.
@jonandek,the pop report is definitely important and I keep that in mind. I focus mostly on cards that have a lower pop and probably won’t receive any more influx (maybe I like to suffer), so time works against me extra hard. 1st ed base isn’t my cup of tea so that won’t affect me.
sounds like you’re being smart. I would agree. knock the biggest cards out first even though it’s painful. the pain will likely get worse if you wait.
If your buying for your personal collection, it doesn’t really matter much. Let’s say there is an expensive card that goes for 2,000 today, and it doubles to 4,000 in a couple years.
If you buy it at 2,000, or buy it at 4,000, you’ll still find yourself owning a 4,000 card eventually, when you could instead have 4,000 cash.
The only difference is you’ll profit more if you eventually sell it. So for cards that you intend on keeping, price shouldn’t really play a factor.
Obviously it isn’t always black and white, profit or collect. But it’s something to consider. Opinions, anyone?
I think that is a good sentiment, however im sure many people would rather buy the card on the cheaper side instead of paying more for it in the long run. Yes in the end you will own the card, but with the extra money you could knock off some more of your collection goals
I agree with half of this concept. But I think you need to factor in the cost of acquisition even more when you are talking about items that you don’t plan to sell because the purchase cost is the only variable in items that you don’t eventually sell.
To use your example, a $2000 purchase of a card that eventually is worth $4000 is preferable to a $4000 purchase of a card that is worth $4000.
The difference is now you have a $4000 card and $2000 cash instead of just a $4000 card
The increase of value over time is not really a factor in cards you will never sell
Personally, I know which cards I will never sell, and their market value matters less to me than the ones I would sell or trade in the right circumstance. The cards I plan to sell are still expendable/usable assets to me, either for cash or other cards, whereas my personal collection cards could be worth $10 or $10,000 and it won’t really matter in practice because their market value will never be realized via trade or sale
I actually got some really good advice from @churlocker: Go for the expensive cards you want first because they will become less and less affordable as time goes on and go out of reach first compared to the less expensive cards you want. When you are done buying the super expensive cards, the rest will be easier to obtain even if they have increased in value and more likely to still be in reach.
@leafblade,I get your point, and I do intend to keep some heavy hitters in my collection forever. However, I’d prefer to buy them at the lowest possible price, to no one’s surprise. Missing out on those opportunities should only be considered if they benefit for doing so outweighs the cons.
@deltazero,yeah, I will follow this advice, even if it hurts. Maybe I can strategically buy and blitzflip some cards to achieve my goal even faster, but that’s about it.
@ripguyfawkes It is a little painful when you first get started. However, when you can finally buy that card you really want, it feels SO rewarding. It makes the card feel more special. I saved up for my Mew Ex Play Promo so that I could buy it as a graduation gift to myself. It not only was it great to finally buy it, but the fact I got it as a graduation gift for myself gives the card adds to its history in a personal way.
I had this dilemma with Fossil 1st Edition. In the end I went for Lapras and Articuno first and I’m glad I did last year.
Even though I wanted Dragonite more and it has now risen in price which is hard to swallow, I still feel like it is obtainable. Its so much higher in population that it feels theres always one for sale and it’s just a case of saving.
If I had instead purchased the Dragonote at the time, I would be nervously sweating whilst saving up for the Lapras worrying that it would either climb completely out of reach or simply no more would come up for sale again and I’d be fighting against a big money collector when one is eventually listed.