zorloth
September 7, 2021, 12:57am
6013
sparky55603:
mitty:
I think all of the holiday sets have the best chance. Dragon Majesty, Generations, Hidden Fates, Shining Legends, Champs Path etc. etc. Have a much better chance of going up in the long run than other modern sets.
The economist in me has to say that it depends. While historically holiday sets have done well in the past, these are unprecedented times. Even 5 years ago people weren’t instantly sending ever UR and HR to PSA. Every HR and UR from 2016 and back has gone up in price because they follow the general rules of scarcity and over time, their prices increase because people are realizing their value and not every single one is mint. Today, if you pull an uber rare cards you will most likely send it to a grading company for a high grade to either sell it or encapsulate it. Regardless, I would bet that over 80% of the pack fresh charizards from either Darkness ablaze or Champions PAth have already been graded or will be graded. To come back to your argument though, why would the price need to go up if there is so much supply? Smpratte said it best with collectibles being the fastest self correcting market. People can try to influence the price as much as they want but at the end of the day, I think most modern sets will have more supply than demand even 20 years into the future. Now I dont think this applies to promos, but in the case of set cards and ESPECIALLY english set cards, there will always be one to buy on ebay. But at the end of the day, its too early to tell. Maybe Rayquaza alt arts go to the moon, but I dont see a card with 80% being psa 10 sustaining a higher price than some gold stars from the ex era that are WAY more scarce and are much harder to grade. Not saying it will crash but those who buy the card now will feel the burn a few months from now.
Edit: just checked and while the sample is low, Rayquaza vmax is 82% psa 10(pop 23) and umbreon vmax is 89% psa 10(pop 19). For refrence, entei goldstar has a 19% psa 10 rate (which is high among gold stars) and sells for roughly the same as the rayquaza right now.
I agree with your points, just wanted to mention that the PSA 10 rate for Entei/Raikou/Suicune gold stars is irrelevant. Most other gold stars have <10% of the pop in PSA 10. And that percentage is constantly decreasing as effectively zero new PSA 10 gold stars are being added to the pop.
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