Has the anniversary ever caused prices to go up or down? I can’t help but feel it’s such a naive way of thinking. We pretty much have an idea of the products and events that actually moved the market.
2016 was the 20th anniversary and it was also a big year for Pokemon. But the sets themselves are… a bit lackluster.
Generations was the actual 20th Anniversary set. Did it move the market? not really. What did was Pokemon Go. It was on the 20th Anniversary but not dependent on it.
Here are the users that joined e4 per month over time.
You can see a new average begin after the release of Pokemon Go. I have a feeling Evolutions was an important set to drawing people in and piquing interest. But it looks like S&M base is actually a peak point in terms of new users.
Google trends for “pokemon cards”. The first spike is July 2016 → Pokemon Go
The release of Evolutions corresponds to where the downtrend begins actually.
You can see the interest spike again in terms of e4 memberships at the start of the pandemic. These are the “early adopters” of the pandemic and what really set it off was the Logan Paul box break. Note this was the end of 2020, the 24th anniversary.
Champions path and Vivid voltage were huge sets that pulled in a ton of people. They were released in 2020. Shining Fates released around the 25th anniversary. Celebrations was probably the true 25th anniv set but was pretty mid.
In summary, the 20th anniversary was big because of Pokemon Go. The 25th anniversary was big because it was the peak inertial moment triggered by the pandemic/Logan Paul box break. The 15th anniversary… does anyone even remember it? I think people are misidentifying the reasons why 20th and 25th anniversaries were so successful. It has little to do with the calendar year and everything to do with things that were happening outside of what TPCI’s was doing. And of course, since we have two datapoints it’s easy to draw a straight line and say the 30th anniversary will be the same. To me, it’s not guaranteed. It all depends on whether there is some Pokemon-based news story or event that captures the attention of the general public. The 30th anniversary alone can’t do that. And there’s not a good reason to think the next time that happens will be on the 30th anniversary.