As someone who came into the Hobby in late 2018, I’m curious if the current going rate for most PSA 9 1st ed base cards are record prices - similar to most of its WOTC counterparts?
If not, shouldn’t 1st ed base be due for an uptick?
Personally, I can’t believe something like a Mewtwo goes for $600-$700. That just seems cheep relative to how the market is booming.
The pop on most of these are roughly 350-400 but still, it’s 1st ed base!
I believe most are close if not at all time high prices. Cards like Blastoise has shown strong growth lately, some not so much like Magneton.
In my opinion, these are some of the best value cards in the hobby today. Particularly so when you look at how much prices have risen recently in other WOTC sets, combined with the inherent historical significance of this set above all others.
What about the value of PSA 8 conditioned cards? They still seem reasonably affordable
That’s sort of how I view it too. Everything else seems to have grown exponentially over the past 6-12 months while 1st ed base 9’s have moved, but not nearly to the degree of others. It’s just crazy to me because finding mint ungraded from 1st ed base is impossible.
Can’t believe I still don’t own any 1st ed base holo. Slept on them will try to get the one I want soon
Good viewpoint. I’m fine if 1st ed base still hovers around where it is now for awhile - gives me more time to buy!
It just seems like (since I joined the hobby) everything else has risen so quickly but 1st ed base hasn’t moved a whole lot & I’m not sure why. I know the supply of graded cards seemed to be relatively steady for awhile but as I search through eBay it appears some of that may be dwindling.
If I did fall into some doomsday scenario where I had to liquidate my collection - you betcha 1st ed base would be the last things to go.
Less than a year ago you could build the entire Holo PSA9 set for around U$S9500. They definitely been raising, considering Charizard was a U$S5000 Card a year ago and now some people offering U$S6500. Same with Venusaur and stoise wich had $600 sales at last year PWCC and now should easily hit U$S1000.
Cards like Magneton are not that desirable and thats pretty much why they didnt see much of a grow, still going for around U$S300.
In the other hand, i bought Mewtwo for U$S400 a year ago and now its worth way more; this has nothing to do with pop, more like with the Pokemon itself.
A rising tide lifts all boats as they say. People priced out of the higher grades will go for the PSA 8s and lower.
Compared to the neo sets it has moved very slow, but it could jump any time again.
I would think that availability would impact price and growth more then anything, regardless of Pop numbers.
Seems like there are still multiple of most 1st Edition base cards available on eBay in PSA 8/9. I think the reason for big price jumps in sets like Neo are availability issues. Basically the market has dried up and there are few/no PSA 9/10 cards on the market. Then when one appears, it has this pent up desirability from people still needing/wanting it. Prices jump.
I also think that maybe a lot of people re-entering the hobby just put 1st edition base out of their brain, especially at the beginning, as the prices were already high pricing them out. Perhaps now that these other sets are jumping and costing a lot, people will reconsider and compare to base again and think that maybe an 8/9 set of base is something doable. I know this is how I started personally. Was just like, ok no way I can get 1st ed base so let me look into other cards and sets I love. Now I find myself circling back to base as prices of other sets get closer in price again. Makes base seem more reasonable, even with the higher pops, there has to be a higher demand for base (which I’m sure there is).
When the market availability of the 8s and 9s dry up without any replacements, then I think that’s when we will see a spike and base will again separate itself further from the pack.
I agree with everything said. I have also been wondering why is there so much first edition base high grade inventory out there relative to some of the other older sets. I started buying pokemon cards in January. I was able to pretty quickly put together a high grade set of 1st edition base. The only card I haven’t seen yet from 1st edition base in the last three months is PSA 10 Chansey. 1st ed jungle and fossil were also easy except for a few “chase” cards. Sets like skyridge have taken longer and have been much harder. I haven’t been trying to put together PSA 10 neo sets but it seems these are also much harder.
1st edition base was the logical, very first set I went after when I started buying vintage graded pokemon cards. I think for obvious reasons. clearly the card prices there have been driven by a lower % of collectors who can pay the higher prices. but at the same time, there’s a floor where if prices drop, collectors and investors would swoop in and buy up all of the cards. I don’t need extras right now but if prices dropped I would certainly be watching. and that factor is what holds the prices up. But the prices are still out of reach for most who want them. Not sure if I articulated that well but that’s one way I’m thinking about it.
Another thought… the pop report for first edition base is very old and very stable. very little new graded product is coming in. and given the prices virtually every decent first edition base card gets graded. For example, charizard 1st ed base has 2300 or so copies graded. I know that lots of those are re-subs etc. but let’s assume that dynamic is the same for any comparison card too. T17 1st ed has only 454 total graded copies. Are there really 1/5 the 1st edition T17 cards as there are base 1st ed Charizards. Or could this pop report look very different in the next few years as people notice the new prices, more graded inventory comes online, etc.
I guess time will tell. Maybe someone here knows something about the relative production runs of these cards so we can test the theory?
A couple of my thoughts on this. 1st Base has always been seen as the “investment” set. There are people out there that hold multiple copies of all the holo and are ready to sell at any time. PSA 9s have also been in the hundreds of dollars range for many years.
In contrast, something like t17 has been $100-200 in PSA 9 until like a few months ago (not even long enough to receive 1 bulk submission). It always has been a bit of an outlier as most PSA 9 holos have historically been well under $100.
Knowing this, there are 2 points to consider:1) people who have been buying 1st ed base are often doing it to resell so there’s always been a steady flow of them and that translates to a fairly stable price (for now). Compare that to other PSA 9 holos that people typically picked up a copy because they liked it or to build full sets. There’s probably a lot more resistance to price corrections for these cards since many people aren’t holding multiple copies or are currently inactive in the market or don’t want to break up sets etc.
2) there has always been a good reason to grade PSA 9 quality 1st ed base cards but it’s only recently that something like the t17 and other 9s which have seen significant growth become worthwhile grading candidates. We saw a very similar trend around shadowless cards a couple years ago. Just a larger proportion of raw 1st ed base holos have been graded in general and over time, we’ll probably see more 9 quality cards being submitted that people were just sitting on from later sets. First PSA has to reopen and catch up though lol
edit: I realize you’re mostly taking about psa 10s but the logic still applies
less popular 1st edition holos will still rise, but like some have mentioned, will rise slower than the more desirable cards. ultimately, the math comes down to the ratio of demand vs supply.