What are your thoughs on 1st Ed. Base Set?
The set (PSA9 and lower) was stuck for months but seems like its finally moving up; and following the trend of the other WOTC Era sets that literally exploded after December.
A couple weeks ago most of the 1st. Ed PSA9 Holos were still around the 300-350U$S mark and now, most of them are literally gone; i saw someone offering $700 for hitmonchan on a famous facebook group, a $300-350 dollar card prior december.
When everything else ran out/got too expensive people move onto the next available item.
Also why pay $200 for a psa 9 jungle 1st when for an extra $100 you can get a base 1st.
I agree. There seems to be a big increase in offers here on this forum too. When the base set for sale PSA 9 and 10 inventory clears out, watch out for those prices shooting up.
Thats whats happening, i just saw someone offering $4600 for a PSA8 Charizard (1st Ed); roughly what a 9 was worth less than a year ago.
Base set will get its dues… glad to see it happening
Reason I say is watch out when inventory clears out on base set is because it has the most fixed supply of product vs other sets. I predict recent prices on the neo sets will lead to more graded product for those sets entering the market. It will likely enter in the same ratio as the current grades (ie “hard to grade in 10” cards will still remain relatively hard to grade) but it will happen. The extent as to which it happens will be interesting to watch and will start to give a sense as to print runs of these cards vs base set. And my comment is only directed towards the holos.
For example, 1st ed Neo genesis Lugia has the most graded copies submitted to PSA out of 1st ed Neo Genesis. Why? For a long time it’s been the most expensive card in the set. But there are still less than 1000 copies submitted. if you look at the base set 1st PSA pop report, basically ALL of those holos have as at least as many submissions as the PSA 9 Lugia from first set base (900+). 1st ed base Charizard and Blastoise have ~2400 and ~1400 copies each submitted so in theory that’s what is possible. Yes there are lots of re-subs but probably for neo lugia as well.
For most of the rest of 1st ed neo holos, the PSA pop is less than 500. Even the almighty T17 sits at only 455 submissions. So, these pops will change.
But 1st ed base PSA pop growth should increase at a relative snails pace. Recognize all of this may be known/obvious but thought some of the data would be interesting to highlight. BTW, this post is not to bash 1st ed neo sets. I love those sets and have been collecting them. I am long-term bullish on them. The point was to highlight the growth potential for 1st ed base in contrast to a recent “fast grower” that seems to be top of mind right now
The prices of 1st ed Base have definitely been on the move, just not as much as other WOTC holos when you compare the % gains.
Some anecdotes:
I could keep looking at these specific price points, but the general trend is that prices are going up and that the lower grades have been increasing at an even larger % compared to the higher grades.
I’d be careful with your observations here.
Hitmonchan did sell for $3.5k once, but that was the absolute lowest sale. Back in 2017, the card sold for $6.3k and $5.8k. The most recent sale was by me was for $5k exactly (this is incorrectly shown as $5999 on pokemonprice.com). Hitmonchan still hasn’t reached past 2017 prices.
Blastoise did sell for $4.5k, but it also sold for over $6k before the $4.5k sale. So is $6k really a new high? I’d argue Blastoise is just getting back to 2017 prices.
That’s a fair point about the prices for certain cards like Blastoise and Hitmonchan fluctuating since 2017. As a whole though I would say prices are at their all-time high right now. This is harder to glean from looking at some specific cards that have fewer sales data points like the cards you mentioned, but it’s more obvious when you look at cards with much more data points to go by (like PSA 9 Charizard, for example).
@hyruleguardian, yes I agree that there’s a clear trend when looking at other cards. The PSA 10 cards with low pop and/or very infrequent sales are harder to gauge.
1st edition base is long overdue. When you look at the way that Jungle and Fossil have exploded (especially Jungle) recently, and you realize that you have some of the top cards from those sets now practically rivaling 1st edition PSA 10 copies of cards from the most iconic set with populations of like 60 that are unlikely to ever rise much at this point… It was utterly nonsensical.
Although interestingly, the base set rise does seem to be more evident for the 9s, where you have popular cards like Alakazam, Raichu, and Mewtwo breaking from the $400ish area where they have been for a long time and now climbing to $600, $700. And it’s been mentioned quite a bit lately around here that 7-9 Charizard are seeing increases. I’ve been surprised that for the 10s, buyers have not really been willing to push prices that much to try to shake free some of the supply that just isn’t there. That includes myself, but maybe that’ll change imminently =P. It’s been so long that there was a PSA 10 or even PSA 9 Hitmonchan on eBay. Something has to give.
I’ve noticed less availability of psa 9 1st edition base holos recently. Usually 5-10 of each sit on eBay, but now there are like 2-5 for the more popular species.
I have no idea on print runs but what I do notice when buying is there always seems to be plenty of 1st edition base and hardly any of some of the Neo 1st ed holo’s. Also Aquapolis and Skyridge are very scarce as well as most of the ex era sets. I’ve really been liking collecting these type of sets with less available cards. I’ll always love base set 1st editions but they aren’t exactly hard to find if you have the money to spend
Agreed - ever since I got in (late 2018), there has always been multiple of almost all of the species. Now, there are a few where none are listed.
BUY 
BUY BUY BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE 
CARDS WILL SHOOT TO THE MOON 
I wonder how many of us are pretty much addicted to buying and completing set goals while attempting to collect as fast as possible before prices increase. I know I’m guilty of this haha
It’s sort of a catch-22 for Neo - the supply for all those cards is much lower because far fewer of these cards were printed due to the fact that 90s Pokemon hype had already died down. But therefore there are also far fewer people who have nostalgia tied to these cards compared to the cards printed in 1999 (and they don’t have the honor of being the original Pokemon TCG cards, although they do contain the rookie cards for Gen 2). I would say the surge in price for Neo cards has mostly come from people who didn’t grow up with the cards but fell in love with them anyway (I am also in the camp of people who thinks the Neo cards are fantastic).
In my mind the demand for Neo cards in general will never match Base/Jungle/Fossil because there are far fewer people who have nostalgia tied to the Neo series - HOWEVER, since these cards have a much smaller supply it sort of balances out.
For some perspective on supply, consider these PSA pop report numbers for the 1st edition cards (disregarding Charizard submissions):
So clearly the Neo cards in general are much scarcer, and although in my opinion the demand for these cards will never match that of the first 3 sets, increased demand combined with scarcity have made them very pricey.
@enlightenedbulbasaur I’m in that camp too I love all the Neo sets. They are probably my favorite. I have zero nostalgia towards those sets. I stopped after fossil as a kid. And I agree the demand might never be the same but nonetheless having less printed is great. I don’t care what’s the most expensive set. I like the less printed sets better. Also I get extra enjoyment because I never had these cards before. A lot of the cards in my collection I’d never seen in person until I ordered them. Not talking down 1st edition base. And for price I’m sure it will probably remain on top for the long haul as well as popularity but i don’t underestimate all the other wotc sets to eventually hit astronomical numbers as well just less than base but who knows. I just wish I currently had enough money to order doubles but I can only focus on my own collection with selling out of the equation
@mcorey777 Yeah I feel the same way about Neo - the cards are something old and yet something new because I never experienced them growing up (I actually did own many of the Japanese Neo Genesis cards growing up but I never owned any of the other Neo series cards). So Neo cards actually strike an interesting balance of tickling nostalgia while at the same time offering something you’ve never seen before.
One of my biggest regrets in this hobby is that I had always meant to buy some Neo cards but never really got around to it and now prices have exploded - but that’s the same regret just about everyone has! 
Having said that, my heart will always lie most with the originals and Base Set in particular. I just have such powerful nostalgia connected to that time. I first discovered Pokemon through the Base Set.
@enlightenedbulbasaur I have some regrets on my purchases mainly opening too many packs and a few bad Facebook marketplace deals. I would have used that couple thousand towards Gold Stars. Or part of 1st edition base or Skyridge and Aquapolis holo’s. Another thing that would have helped me would have been buying all PSa cards for wotc holo’s. Instead I went for light played to near mint binder sets. I completed a ton of holo sets but only own 4 PSa cards. I don’t regret that though because in reality i would have finished maybe Base thru rocket in PSa 7 or better but I’d have no other sets to show for it. Instead I have base unlimited. 1st edition jungle thru Neo Destiny holo’s and shinings. Expedition holo’s. All Crystal cards. And Ruby and Sapphire thru Fire red leaf green ex’s as well as Crystal Guardians and all Rainbow Rares from sun and moon. And Hidden Fates master set. So I accomplished a lot by skipping PSa cards for now but I do plan to expand my PSa collection at one point if possible
I hope so! I just bought blastoise today, spent about a year collecting the holos and I am happy to say i am only 3 holos away now!