Following the history of this card on the market its PSA 10 version seems to fluctuate in value constantly. It moves in the pattern of a wave, gradually rising only to drop back off into the mid 00,s. Do you think it will ever settle at the high 00’s - 1k mark? Or does it have too much of a confusing identity being it’s a popular species in the most popular era and language but it has too much of a high pop so it lacks rarity and scarcity?
I can give an in depth reply on all this, but i’m sure there’s a thread with all the info you need on rockets set.
On another note; all your posts here revolve around ‘investment’ questions… Just collect what you like, its shiny cardboard after all, nobody knows what is gonna grow or plummet financially for sure
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I’ll check it out. Thanks.
I agree with you on we collect what we like but I have to disagree with the loose buy what you like attitude. I have not re-entered the hobby to invest. Meaning I’m not here to make money, what I want to make sure of is that I don’t lose money and speaking to people far more intelligent than I am on this subject matter adds clarity and helps people like me to choose a more cautious path. We are not talking 10s of £s here.
With 1st edition Dark Charizard, at present it is on the top of its wave so I’m looking at purchasing the card at its ceiling value. What I don’t want is to buy it out of blindness and lose over 50% of my investment into the card. I’m more than happy to enjoy the momories it brings whilst feeling comfortable in the know that it won’t depreciate all that much if at all.
Thanks again
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When looking for investments you need to find things with room to grow. If you are about to buy an item but are worried about losing value you need to ask yourself:
“Could the price go up from here?”
“Would there be demand at a higher price point?”
“Can the card sustain a price despite availability or population increase?”
“Is the card popular or a must have for collectors?”
“Is the card selling at an all time high/low price?”
“Do I enjoy/ care about/ or love this card enough to hold in most situations?”
Answering these questions will help you make good buying decisions.
Edit: I’ll add one more thing… Generally, buying what you like is the best way to ensure that the value of an item is sustained. It means we are less likely to dump (liquidate) the item I a time of need. Mass liquidation=price drop.
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Only issue is that most of the time those questions can’t be answered without some kind of magic 8 ball.
I remember back when people were shocked that PSA 10 1st edition base Charizard was selling for $16k. We laughed at people who bought it at that price, but look where we are now. Analyzing investment potential requires a lot more of a circumspect view of things in my opinion, and isn’t some precise science.
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I totally agree @fourthstartcg
It’s not a “precise science” and hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
Regardless, doing a quick analysis of past, current, and possible future market conditions can help you make informed decisions. There is no question about it.
With regard to the 1st Base Zard, we had been viewing it through the lens of a Pokémon card collector in a limited community. In reality, that card appealed to a much broader audience. We just couldn’t predict the factors that lead to it becoming a $20,000+ card.
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I grabbed mine for U$S500; wich seemed reasonable, during the first months of 2019. After June card spiked a lot, and last solds show prices from 790 up to U$S1025.
You need to know 2 things about it:
A) Card is almost pop400
B) There are over 1.000 PSA9 and a ton of PSA9 crackers out there.
Availability for PSA10 Dark Charizard shouldnt be a problem in the short term. Price, due to supply factors shouldn’t see a huge spike.
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This one and Blaine’s Charizard seemed to have gone up a lot this past year. Idk if it’s a normal price fluctuation and it will come back down, or if these are just the new prices. Charizard is one of the most popular in the hobby and most new collector that join our group are probably going to want one. Not to mention current members that start building more capital. This zard might have 400 psa 10 copies but at the end of the day, that’s not a lot. Especially when some peope out there collect multiple copies. Current bid is $760 on Ebay. I think that’s a fair price
No, but one can make educated guesses based on a variety of factors including market history, popularity, etc.
For example, Charizard, in general, is one of the safer investments you can make in this hobby.
Is there a guarantee that Charizard cards will increase in value? No, but there is certainly a higher probability of a Dark Charizard card increasing than there is of, say, a Dark Slowbro.
If someone is looking to primarily invest (and I’m not sure if that is what OP is doing), they shouldn’t just collect what they like. They need to make educated guesses and make purchases based off of their analysis.
What if the person “likes” Neo Discovery Caterpie?
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Market value is what you can buy the card for today. What’s going to happen tomorrow? Don’t worry about it. Collect what you love and don’t look for fortune tellers or false profits to guide and influence you because when tomorrow comes…it’ll be meaningless;)
One example, I love to collect Charizards but every time I’ve laid out big bucks for one, the dissenters squirmed. I bought every one cause I loved them and it didn’t matter if they went up or down. I still have nearly every one still even though they’ve zoomed up in price. Had I asked and listened to every one of them I’d have 20 today instead of over 100;)
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The core issue is the idea described here. You don’t “lose money” when you fail to buy at the lowest price. If you buy with the intention of just keeping the item indefinitely, every dollar you spend is “lost”, regardless if the items goes up or down. If you really don’t want to “lose money”, your best bet is to not buy the card in the first place.
If your thought process is that every dollar you could have “saved” by waiting is a loss, you will go crazy. This is not a healthy collecting perspective since you will almost never buy cards at their lowest price. Consider this. Every dollar you spend in something you don’t plan on reselling is lost money. But in what you lose in money, you gain in owning the card. So what would YOU be comfortable spending on the Dark Charizord? What is the value to you? When you pay the amount you believe the card is worth, you will never go wrong. If it goes up, then great. If not then you still got what you consider to be the proper value for your money.
You also have to consider the variability in price today vs the difference in price between now and the future. Consider a card that has a market value of about $50 but the sold listings range from $25 to $75. Let’s say after a year, the average price increases from $50 to $70 but still maintains that range of ±$25. It is better to buy the card in a year on the lowest end ($45) than to buy it today at the market price ($50). My point is, often it is better to wait for a low outlier sale than to bet on the general trend of the item.
Here is how I buy cards (that appear on the market with relatively high frequency):1) Evaluate sold listings and my own desire to own the card, determine a price I would be happy to pay. Typically this is at the lowest end of recent sold listings
2) Wait for an ebay coupon or an auction/listing to dip to the price I would pay
3) If the price shifts upward or it seems my initial price was too low, adjust upward and repeat
Using this method I buy card at prices I am always happy with. If a card ever decreases in price from when I bought it then oh well, cry a little and move on.
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This is exactly what I would of wrote @daanny . Without risk, no reward either. This is a hobby and everything can fluctuate and nothing is technically “safe”. Graded cards/booster boxes are probably the most cautious approach that you want to take but even with authenticated cards, they can be replicated (harder to do but it will be done). The more popular and higher profit margins Pokemon gets, the more reason to create fakes. Once again, nothing in this hobby is safe but what you can do, is utilize the knowledge of long time members experience and expertise on this forum if you are unsure of a purchase you are about to make.