1st Edition Shining Charizard vs Gold Star Charizard PSA

Market
1

I wanted to discuss the PSA 9 and 10 prices of these cards and why there’s such a difference between the two.

If you look at shining Zard, the 9 is half the price of the 10.

However, if you look at gold star Zard 9, it’s only 1/4 or 1/5 of the price of the 10.

Is it simply bc of scarcity? Popularity? Thoughts?

1st Edition Shining Charizard PSA 9
Last few prices:
$950
$890
$945
$1300

1st Edition Shining Charizard PSA 10
Last few prices:
$2,025
$2,095
$2,325

Gold Star Charizard PSA 9
Last few prices:
$1,100
$1,095
$1,154
$1,200

Gold Star Charizard PSA 10
$6,100
$5,634

2

I think it just has to do with how many there are. There are about 50 PSA 10 Gold Star zards and almost 140 PSA Shining zards so the gold stars going to command a much higher premium.

1 Like
3

I’d have to agree, Shinings and Gold Stars are pretty equal in popularity. But Gold Stars have always been far more rare due to the incredibly low pull rates.

I guess with shining charizard there’s enough supply to satisfy the demand and gold star charizard is the opposite, which is why the price keeps rising.

4

So are you thinking the shining charizard psa 10 will top off around 2k and the gold star 10 continue growing?

5

Not really, it’s just an explanation for why Gold Star Charizard is so much more valuable than the shining atm.

Shining charizard could still increase in value and even surpass the Gold Star if the demand becomes strong enough. The shining is the original shiny charizard so that could become a strong factor that would allow this to happen. But who knows? The market is unpredictable.

6

So why doesn’t the gold star 10 drag the price up of the 9?

We’ve seen similar stuff with base set Zard and how the 10s help the prices of everything below it.

7

For the last months i tried to follow the situation about these two guys.
I can tell more about the Gold Star which i had both (Psa 9 - Psa 10). Now i’ve just the 10 which it was very cheap when i bought it (2016).

Until September the situation was balanced actually.

The best market price you could find for a 9 was 700/850 usd (even less). And the 10 was at 2K Usd but it was becoming hard to find.
After a month i sold my PSA 9, the price for the 10 incredibly went very far with an auction that reached 3500 Usd (maybe more, i don’t remember exactly).
From that auction the price escalated very quickly.

The huge difference between a 9 and a 10 has been made on the last few months. Maybe because of the scarcity of the 10s in sale and everytime an auction appears it gets “crazy”.

By the way The gold star 10 dragged the 9 but maybe it’s harder to see it because the difference in values is huge.

Anyone who would like to correct what i said it’s truly welcome :blush:

8

The price gap between PSA 9 and 10 usually becomes wider as a card becomes more valuable. It was the same for PSA 10 1st Ed Base Zard when it was $5,000. Notice that 1st Ed Base Blastoise, Venusaur, and Gold Star Rayquaza all have similar price gaps.

9

I personally think the PSA 10 1st Ed. Shining Charizard is undervalued, both compared to the PSA 9 price and in general, and will increase much more in the long run. My reasoning is below. I’ve highlighted things in green which I think boost my argument and text in red which may counter it. Feel free to disagree, just figured I’ve done a lot of consideration on this and people may appreciate.

  • Modern prices compared to pull rate: The pull rate for Dragon Frontiers gold stars was 1 per 2 boxes. There are two gold stars in the set, Mew and Charizard, so the odds of pulling a Charizard are 1:144. As for Neo Destiny, the pull rate for Shinings is 2-3 per box, so the average is around 1:15 packs. Since there are 8 Shinings in the set, the odds of pulling a Charizard are 1:120. A Dragon Frontiers booster box currently runs approx. $2,500 whereas a 1st Ed. Neo Destiny is easily $5,000+. To open enough product for a Charizard Gold Star would average $2,500 * 4 boxes = $10,000. For a Shining Charizard it’s $5,000 * 3.33 = $16,650.

  • Pull rate with modern prices is not that great a measure here because the other cards Dragon Frontiers besides Mew Gold Star are comparatively worthless, while the Neo Destiny holos and other shinings all fetch a pretty penny, so even if you don’t pull a Charizard you can have a very valuable box opening (though probably not $5k worth).

  • Print runs are debatable and low for both. 1st Ed. WOTC past Base/Jungle/Fossil had much lower print, but so did ex series in 2006. If I had to guess, 1st Ed. Neo Destiny had a lower print run since Dragon Frontiers was a more popular ex set (partly due to everyone wanting the Charizard), came out during 10th anniversary celebrations, and wasn’t quite as low as the 2004-2005 sets. 1st Ed. Neo Destiny was well past Pokemon’s prime of early WOTC. Dragon Frontiers didn’t have the same competitive appeal as sets like Delta Species which had a truckload of popular holon cards and trainers = more players opening boosters, but it did have Flygon and Rayquaza ex which were used in winning world championships.

  • Dragon Frontiers came out 4 years after Neo Destiny. Shining cards have always had a higher POP report in 9/10 than gold stars, but their POP reports may start growing slower than Gold Stars in the coming years if a higher % of shining Pokemon have already been graded.

  • Shining Pokemon are generally easier to get in PSA 10 quality. There’s less likelihood of holo scratches or holo peeling, and I’ve noticed the centering to be 10 worthy in more of them compared to Gold Stars.

  • The new Shining Legends set may increase interest in the original Shinings.

  • There’s more of an incentive to complete the entire 8 or 10 or 11 (depends on your preference) PSA 10 1st Ed. Shining set compared to the nearly impossible task of all 27 PSA 10 Gold Stars. So while there’s a higher PSA POP, someone buying a PSA 10 Shining Tyranitar and Steelix and Raichu etc. will likely want the Charizard as well. However, someone buying a PSA 10 Kyogre and Flareon and Entei gold star may have zero interest in Charizard. While the few people with the resources to buy a complete gold star set will always be competing on auctions which drives scarce PSA 10 prices up, I expect this to happen with Shinings as well. IMO there are more than 100 people who will now or will ever in the future want a complete PSA 10 1st Ed. Shining set.

  • English Gold Stars had no 1st Ed. print, which increases the appeal and perceived scarcity of these cards overall… let’s be honest that except to serious collectors, the only difference between 1st Ed and Unlimited non base set is a small stamp. So while the 1st Ed. Neo Destiny print run might be smaller than Dragon Frontiers, there are still plenty of Unlimited Shinings which could satisfy less picky collectors.

  • Shining Charizard is about 2x as expensive as Shining Mewtwo. Usually Charizards command more of a percent premium over the next most expensive card in the set – Gold Star Charizard is roughly 3x as expensive as Mew Gold Star.

  • Neither of these cards were playable IIRC compared to ultra rares like Latias Gold Star.

  • The Shinings were the very first ultra rares with different artwork and rarity symbol, and have more WOTC nostaliga.

18 Likes
10

Absolutely incredible post and information. Exactly what I was looking for.

I’d love to see this posted as an informative article.

11

Double post but another thing that has been around since 1999: weighing packs.

Can both sets be efficiently weighed? I know that’s a small factor but if you look at pop series 5, it drives the price up bc no one knows what’s inside.