So Daniel Chang made a YT video confirming the PSA 10 AUTO 10 Alpha Black Lotus sale of $250k while the buyer of the card also made a video confirming he bought and paid via eBay.
What I find interesting is the value of this said item. Last year April, Daniel made a video stating this card had a valuation of $435k (trade+cash) and a few months later in Nov 2019, Scott made a video of this card (not this exact copy) stating a valuation of $700k-$900k, probably trade value.
This is such a good lesson about the high end where a price is solely determined by a buyer and a seller in the sense that if a seller values something higher than a buyer, it will never sell and the same for a buyer (values lower). $250k was the value the seller placed and there was a buyer for it, cut and dry. Having only 2 in existence of this card with that grade for the AUTO, this is the definition of a high end seller’s market.
People don’t tend to make value estimates of cards they don’t have direct interest in; estimates like this are either given by people who own the item themselves and are looking to boost its value to make a profit or, much less frequently, are from people who are prepared to pay that amount at that time.
The fact that Daniel himself claimed he believed the card to be worth $435,000 last year and ended up selling for $250,000 shows that this was a large overestimation of its value to begin with - unless MTG in general has gone down in value a lot since then (which based on how almost all collectable card values have gone up recently I’m guessing isn’t the case).
Edit: I had originally written this thinking Daniel was the buyer who was prepared to pay $435,000 last year rather than being the seller who wanted its value to be that amount, so have since modified the second paragraph.
Kind of surprised Daniel couldn’t find a buyer at a bit more. $250k for the absolute top dog of the entire CCG market isn’t that much. But, then again, if you’re going to spend $500k on a card, you might prefer to have a BGS 10, especially given the stature of BGS in the hobby. So maybe $250k wasn’t too bad of a price.
I’m actually glad it sold for that price. This the ceiling of “most recent” tcg collectibles, lots of people were claiming bat shit prices for this card and this is what it sold for, could it have sold for more? Sure. But it didn’t.
As pichufan said, estimates are given by people who obviously have interest in the card or want to boost the value, usually not by people wanting to pay that value.
This price is still extremely high by overall historical standards in the hobby. I paid $32k for a quad Alpha Black Lotus at the end of 2013. That was considered a high price at that time. Prices in MtG had run up a LOT by late 2019 / early 2020.
MtG prices have now come down quite a bit off of their highs, and this sale is evidence of it.
A good friend of mine still owns the highest graded PSA Alpha set in the world and has tons of extra graded and raw alpha cards. He sells them from time to time. Values have not been meeting his expectations.
MtG is more of a BGS market than a PSA market. BGS cards with high subs tend to be the most desirable cards. I know that a quad 9.5 BGS alpha lotus sold for around $500k pre-COVID
Unless this is Steve Woziak’s card, he also purchased a PSA 10 signed copy which I thought he paid around $450k for. Maybe that’s where the $430k reference comes from? Did the Woz overpay at the top of the market? It’s not inconceivable.
Forgive me as this may be a jumbled post - im typing while working and thoughts are here and there… also it applies an apples to oranges comparison but the theory is the same
A lot of wise people on here, but at the same time there a lot of people here that don’t understand markets. There is frankly no ceiling. Everyone underestimates the sheer vastness of the market and the amount of money out there in general. All that you see right now is “sold” and “listed for”. A lot don’t understand the legs that collectibles have and more so that certain cards have.
People value cards that are scarce, at values that they would sell at or merely at what they believe it would take to acquire certain items. They certainly get to do so, and people certainly get to disagree. For example: I graded a lugia neo genesis and valued it at 15k back when the last sold was for 1.9k. Why did i value it there? Am i just a babbling idiot? No, not necessarily - it is because there are a lot of factors that indicated that this specific card being valued there was warranted. Did multiple sell at lower prices before it hit that number? yes. That didn’t effect the value for me. 40 other people have the card, they value it differently. Could I sell it for 15k today, probably. Would i need to find the right buyer? yes. (Actually, have increased my perceived value).
A second example:
I value and sell apartment complexes for a living. My team prides ourselves on selling within 96% of list price. Part of that is dealing with expectations… Sellers have to understand that there is a strike range where properties will trade. If expecations can’t be met, they dont sell- period. We provide a valuation (based on many factors) on where we believe the property will trade in the eyes of the most aggressive buyers on the market. Of course, as with all real estate, they sell for less. Do they sell for more? yes. Simply it is about what the client perceives to be acceptable AND that THE RIGHT buyer is brought to the table. A higher offer with less certainty to close, will most of the time be a less “Strong” offer than that of a lower offer from a client that will almost be a guarantee close. You deal with BIG NUMBERS, there are other things that come into play besides pricing.
TLDR; Valuations are not price points. Price Points, don’t tell the whole story. Previous sale, is not new price.
It’s pretty cool to think that a mint ungraded Illustrator was roughly the same price give or take a few thousand around this time late 2000s.
So if we equate that to a PSA 9, we see a 26X rise since 2007 for both cards, as after fees and conversions the Illustrator went for close to this Lotus sale.
Whereas the DJIA has gone up 2-3X depending on when one purchased in late 2000s.
Would be interesting to see if this is a precursor to what’s going to happen to pokemon next after its amazing run up so far, like how alpha black lotuses ran up a lot over the past year before this sale
@sgbased, I think the better question is, how many sales will be shared moving forward? The public is always making assumptions off partial data. For example, did anyone hear about the 500k alpha lotus that sold privately? Or what if I never made that video about the private trade + cash deal?
In sports people don’t share information. Its held tightly to their chest. I think that is where we are headed. We are already there in a lot of ways. Therefore with less data, these market assumptions/predictions will be even less credible.
I’d rather my money go towards funding other people’s card collections than helping Amazon become a monopoly and undercut sellers and small businesses at all costs if we want to go there
