Is it a bubble? – Probably not. Is it likely to retrace soon? We don’t know, but there is no reason why it can’t after having such an extraordinary run. Is that a bad thing? No. Is it a permanent thing? Unlikely.
Pokemon TCG has an interesting economic trajectory with many stages where fresh money continues to flow into the hobby.
I think prices will retrace soon once the dust settles with covid as the economy has really gone down the tubes and we aren’t feeling any of the pain as yet.
But looking at the larger picture to post-recession:
I’ve attempted to identify the stages both proceeding us and in our future, and as I see them as likely to occur, because overall-all I think prices will accelerate within the next 20 years, quite drastically.
Stage 1: The initial Pokémon release – Early waves of high volume and high demand for cards, the majority of which were used for their primary purpose: to play the game.
Funding for cards came from: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts
Stage 2: Pokémon franchise loses popularity - Less cards are printed and relatively few customers are interested in the game or collecting in comparison to stage 1.
Funding: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts, Full-time jobs (entry)
Stage 3: Nostalgia for Pokémon attracts old and new players and collectors into the fold - the popularity of Pokémon Go ignites loving memories and gains overall public acceptance, becoming cool again. This allows many adults to return to the hobby feeling comfortable in publicly expressing their love for the franchise once again.
Funding: Allowances, Part-time jobs, Gifts, Full-time jobs
Stage 4: As more adults return to their childhood hobby, the more the supply of collector grade product is absorbed - increasing demand and in turn prices. A lot of collectors during this period have conflicting priorities between family obligations (mortgage payments, kids and other associated expenditures) that may restrict the amount of money they would like to outlay for their wish list.
Funding: Gifts, Full-time jobs
Stage 5: For many, the home will be paid off, the kids will be grown up and their lives may be slowing down. The parents of many collectors of whom initially grew up with Pokémon, will pass away which is an unfortunate but natural occurrence.
Many of those original collectors in the hobby (of course, not all) will inherit money or valuable assets as a result of their parents passing, and having already settled into their later stages of life will have the ability to spend large amounts on cards that provide them with tangible nostalgia from their childhood. This influx of boomer inheritance will likely inflate prices in a wave that will make the current market cap seem as antiquated as the cards themselves.
Funding: Gifts, Full-time jobs, Inheritance