Assuming the box is in mint condition and every card grades a PSA 8-10, what is the average return if every card you pull is sold for standard value? 36 Packs, 11 cards per pack, and I believe 18 holo’s per box? I’m considering purchasing one when the next one is available from a reliable seller and I’m just wondering what the chances of a profitable return are?
Profitable return opening a box? Probably close to zero. Opening boxes are normally a losing strategy. You’d have to get all your cards centered and all your Holos print line free to feel good about a profit on a $150k box.
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i think your chances are bad to break even, even if you got psa 10s on every single holo. i think the avg rate of psa 10 is about 10-15%, so for you to hit 12 10s, you’d have to be lucky. plus, your charizard has to be a 10 for you to even have a remote shot at breaking even. profit? the only scenario i see that happening is if you pull 2 PSA 10 1st ed charizard…
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I appreciate the feedback. I was under the impression that the price was closer to $90,000USD so that $150K figure changes everything regarding my intention (and my wallet) of buying one.
There are 5-6 of any given common in each box. Including the starters and 2-3 of each Pikachu. The expected value is far higher when you consider the recent price climbs of non holo 9 & 10.
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If you don’t already know these things you shouldn’t even consider buying such an expensive item to make money in.
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EnlightenedBulbasaur made a great post in the thread below outlining the potential current value of a box based on the current values of light and heavy packs. I think you would be extremely unlikely to break even selling each card by opening each pack.
www.elitefourum.com/t/tracking-1999-pokemon-psa-10-base-set-1st-edition/28629/1
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Great response, I’m checking out your linked post now.
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Just watch this here. The final price will dictate the market for a little while at least. Currently at $132k + tax
I thought about looking into this, but i’m not great at doing probability math to figure out EV from the commons. yeah, with the base starters and pikachu being so high now, it definitely helps, but i don’t know to what degree, considering the box may be in the range of 150-200k.
Exactly. Not to be mean to the OP. However, too many people are jumping into this without even basic understanding of boxes, pull rates, etc. Like Pokemon youtubers that are pokemon investment channels that don’t know PSA is a yearly membership, they said it was a montly subscription, and other dumb shit.
However, if $120-150k was something you were comfortable losing half on for the experience of opening up a 1st ed base set box for. Then i’d say go for it. If it were still a profitable strategy to do box breaks, then so many of us here would be rich from it. it’s a big gamble.
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Put it this way, if someone well known opened a box and sold the heavies for 10k a piece, many people (including me )would buy one!
I guess look at it this way
If a box is $150k
$5k+ for grading
$155k
360 cards
You would have to aver $460 a card to break even.
Is it possible…with great condition cards…yes
Likely…no
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Different way to look at it.
Did not know heavies were going for 10k