I’ve tried searching online for an answer, but nothing showed up.
I have done MTG mass openings in the past, but I knew the expected value per box, so it was a straightforward investment in which I had a rought estimate on my potential returns.
When it comes to Pokemon TCG the pull rates are less transparent making EV calculations impossible. I assume most card shops aren’t relying on random luck to make their money when opening packs, yet there doesn’t seem to be a statistical way to determine EV.
If someone could provide me with answers to the following questions I would really appreciate it:
What is the best time in relation to set launch to do mass openings?
Is there an estimated figure that one can consider an entry point price?
How do vendors know whether to start, stop cracking cases of a particular set?
Kindly note I am referring to opening 4+ cases, as much as I appreciate people sharing their experience of opening one or two booster boxes, I ask that you refrain from doing so as reddit is already swamped with such information which isn’t all that relevant for what I am trying to figure out.
Rusty (@thecharizardauthorty) had a nice video and shared his spreadsheet on this. All estimates I believe whereas some of the stuff on magic that I have seen over at mtggoldfish it seems like their pull rates are much more defined.
I’ve seen a few of these videos, but it still makes me question how do these people know they will get their money back? Pretty sure most TCG stores wouldn’t be able to afford taking random losses.
Also, any idea if single prices peak at pre order (like Magic) or whether they follow a different price pattern and what events push a set’s value up or down?
Supply and demand ultimately is what determines pricing. In general preorder prices are higher. People who can’t wait to assemble their sets as well as players who can’t wait to have playsets of all the relevant cards for play testing. Bulk prices have gone down loads so I don’t know how people are making out well at all cracking loads of new cases. I used to do it here and there but lately haven’t had the time nor seen enough profit to make myself find time to do it.
I know my answer was vague in saying supply/demand. Ultimately the specific answer driving supply and demand relies on a lot of things. Playability and collectability are the main two IMO. See Tapu Lele GX/Guzma/Golosipod GX for a few examples of the former and Rainbow Charizard GX for an example of the latter.
Would you have any idea of whether the pull rates in Pokemon TCGO are simillar to the pull rates in real life? It just occurred to me that if that was the case I could just buy 500 codes for cheap, compile the stats on those and find out the expected value of a given set before comitting a larger amount of money.
Would this be a fool’s errand or do you think there might be some sense to it?
At the beginning of a release you can always make money if you are very prompt with sales. It also encourages buyers to buy some of your other product. I rarely do large restocks due to the market being so cut throat on pricing to be the lowest on ebay.
Another HUGE part is knowing Pokemon both the collecting aspect and play-ability. Guardians Rising is going to a great set to sit on if you have time. Lele outclasses Shaymin in nearly every deck. You can speculate off of the trainers and ultras based on popularity within the community.
Take Shining Legends:
Of Course SHINING cards are going to be a great hit. Shining Legends also is limited to collection box releases, so most likely allocated and limited on printing after initial release. You have very playable cards within a small set, allowing for ease of access for both players and collectors. My number for Shining Legends are roughly 1 ultra rare in every 4.05 packs (GX, FA, or Shining). That is fantastic! If you play the game you will pick up on a lot of cards that will be playable as well as cards that are worthy of buying to test out. All these little factors can add up.
