Burning Shadows booster box is $400 while PSA 10 Rainbow Charizard is $2,500?

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Isn’t it normally it’s the opposite, where the box eclipses any value of what you can pull from it?

Seems like quite a discrepancy between the box and the chase card?

Are there a lot of boxes out there like this?

edited to add a list of data showing the anomaly in XY/Sun and Moon/SW&S sets:

I compiled some data to share, (some of it is about a month old if there wasn’t enough new data for averages. )

Evolutions: 2:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $1500
Average Box Sale : $800

Sun and moon base 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $ 225
Average Box Sale : $270

Guardians Rising 1:2 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $ 160
Average Box Sale : $ 340

Burning Shadows 6:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $2500
Average Box Sale : $420

Crimson Invasion 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $200
Average Box Sale : $200

Ultra Prism 2:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $1000
Average Box Sale : $617

Forbidden Light 1:2 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $250
Average Box Sale : $431

Celestial Storm 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $600
Average Box Sale : $597

Lost Thunder 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $550
Average Box Sale : $560

Team Up 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $2000
Average Box Sale : $1945

Unbroken Bonds 1:2 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $360
Average Box Sale : $570

Unified Minds 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $500
Average Box Sale : $585

Cosmic Eclipse 1:1.5 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $500
Average Box Sale : $815

Sword and shield sets with data that isn’t just 1:1 -

Evolving Skies 1:1.5 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $1000
Average Box Sale : $700

Fusion Strike 2:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: 400
Average Box Sale : 200

Lost Origin 4:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $600
Average Box Sale : $150

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Burning shadows print quality is it’s downfall. Realistically you can expect to pull a Psa 7 or 8 on a good day if you’re lucky enough to hit that charizard. And the rest of the set was terrible imo

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Most boxes are cheaper than the best chase card in a PSA 10.

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By a multiple of 6?

At this point a full case is less than the psa 10.

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Remember when the Black Label Umbreon VMAX Alt Art sold for $12,000? At the time, the booster box for Evolving Skies was selling for $300-$400 if I remember correctly. That’s a multiple of 30x-40x.

This huge price discrepancy is due to the premium of conditional rarity (and flex culture).

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It’s more the case of how many boxes you’ll go through to find a rainbow Charizard GX, from a set with 19 full arts, 13 rainbow hyper rares and 9 gold cards. And then you’ll have to find a PSA 10 candidate, which currently has a record just shy of 17% (816 / 4904 graded). Nearly all the remaining supply of boxes with this solo chase card goal in mind will be duds

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IMG_7171

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Adding graded cards into the mix is kinda messy. There are many sets where the highest grade of a specific card eclipses the entire box.

ex: 1st ed base, neo gen, several gold star sets, some of the low pop wotc holo sets could even be considered.

I think raw value is a better metric, but its still all over the place

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Well the highest grade being black label kinda messes it up. I think most gold star 10s from PSA are still cheaper than a box. Except Rayquaza but that’s pretty close

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For nearly any box that is out of print, it will almost always be cheaper to buy the hit in the grade you want than the expected value of pulling and grading it yourself. It has to be this way, otherwise the financially smart move is to open boxes at scale.

In this case the premium is in the grade. You can buy the PSA 9 right now for ~$520 USD 2017 Pokemon Sun & Moon Charizard Gx Secret Rare Rainbow PSA 9 MINT 150/147 | eBay. You have to pull nine or ten copies them to expected to hit one PSA 10. Ten boxes @ $400 each = $4000 and that assumes you get one charizord per box!

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Really hard card to pull and the quality of buring shadows is awful

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Still seems like a very strange outlier, I compiled some data to share, (some of it is about a month old if there wasn’t enough new data for averages. )

Evolutions: 2:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $1500
Average Box Sale : $800

Sun and moon base 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $ 225
Average Box Sale : $270

Guardians Rising 1:2 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $ 160
Average Box Sale : $ 340

Burning Shadows 6:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $2500
Average Box Sale : $420

Crimson Invasion 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $200
Average Box Sale : $200

Ultra Prism 2:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $1000
Average Box Sale : $617

Forbidden Light 1:2 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $250
Average Box Sale : $431

Celestial Storm 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $600
Average Box Sale : $597

Lost Thunder 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $550
Average Box Sale : $560

Team Up 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $2000
Average Box Sale : $1945

Unbroken Bonds 1:2 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $360
Average Box Sale : $570

Unified Minds 1:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $500
Average Box Sale : $585

Cosmic Eclipse 1:1.5 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $500
Average Box Sale : $815

Sword and shield sets with data that isn’t just 1:1 -

Evolving Skies 1:1.5 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $1000
Average Box Sale : $700

Fusion Strike 2:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: 400
Average Box Sale : 200

Lost Origin 4:1 ratio
PSA 10 chase: $600
Average Box Sale : $150

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This ratio isn’t really informative unless you account for the probability of pulling the hit from a box and the probability of it grading PSA 10

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Even if we had that data, just because the first half that were opened generated a probability of getting a psa 10 at whatever rate, it is in no way indicative of what the others will be.

Similar to if you flip a coin 100 times and every time it’s tails, the 101th time is still 50/50

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If singles’ prices reflected actual difficulty most would be a lot more expensive. Of course the math doesn’t work like that because, as it turns out, the market is really quite shallow in terms of spreading interest out.

However, a good example of an exception is Scarlet & Violet 151. There is really not much difference in any of the full arts/SRs in that set than any other set. Yet those cards are going for much more, still not reflective of their price to acquire, but closer to the cold math simply because the set design is the strongest since…who knows when, possibly one of the strongest set designs ever. Granted, the concept is easy to pull off when it just requires being part of the 151 than a theme, but honestly amazing how TPC still hasn’t seen that connection.

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You should go for it. There’s 2 cases on eBay right now for 2500 each, you could open 12 boxes and get us some updated 2024 numbers on rainbow charizard gx pull rate + PSA 10 rate.

I anticipate this update.

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I don’t know what you are trying to say. My point is that you have to normalize your ratio by the difficulty in pulling and grading a PSA 10 if you want the straight comparisons to hold

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You payin for that gamble Champ? ,

Maybe you can convince Logan to do it.

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I am saying there is no way to get that data. All we have is sales data and what has been sent to PSA.

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We don’t have pull rate estimations and PSA population data?