can someone explain the gold star bub and now?

I know the gold star bubble existed, but how is it different than whats happening now (genuinely asking, not saying its a bubble now because I don’t think this growth was inorganic)
@smpratte video idea???

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I wasn’t around for the gold star bubble and also don’t know anything about it. Would love an explanation as well :blush:

If I had to guess, it would be that sealed product is just not being opened for this era right now vs back then. The profit/loss ratio is bananas compared to many other vintage sets. Take that $14,000+ TRR booster box that sold recently. The only way you’re gonna make your money back is to pull the Torchic GS in PSA 10. So pull a gold star (1 in 2 boxes) + have it be Torchic (1 in 3) + have it be Gem Mint (some low probability). The probabilities are heavily in favor of getting hosed opening any TRR sealed product. This situation holds for pretty much any set with gold stars.

So opening sealed product isn’t going to happen right now (can change if EXs become much more valuable). That leaves you with 2 other possibilities: buy raw mint (which is probably in the hands of someone who knows what they have) or buy graded which is in low supply (especially now). Personally, I think the supply from lower PSA grades will move up but 9/10s are going to be harder to come across. To be honest, for how iconic and desirable these cards are, the prices they were going for last year was weird to me.

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I’m not aware of any Gold-star-specific bubblebath existing at the moment. If you didn’t suggest that a Gold-star-specific bubblebath exists right now, I apologize for misunderstanding your point. Card prices have been increasing in general over the past few months, and I mean almost any card from the Wotc and early Nintendo era. That includes the Gold stars.

As for what’s going on right now, I don’t think anyone has a definitive answer, we can only speculate. We can assume that the pandemic was a big factor, and personally I assume that small shifts in buyer’s behavior accumulated and triggered higher and higher selling prices.

Imagine it like this: At first the market is relatively stable and stagnant. Cards gets sold for a certain price and at a certain speed (rate). The prices are slowly increasing because people want to sell their cards for more than they were sold at the last auction. Then the rate at which cards are purchased increases (it’s possible that covid led to some sort of panic-buying). Collectors see this and are afraid of missing out on great deals, so they also enter the market and buy cards, which accelerates the situation even more. Sellers see the situation and increase the prices because the recognize the current market as a seller’s market. Some collectors don’t get deterred by the high prices because their fear of missing out outweighs their fear of overpaying. Other collectors see that cards at such high prices were sold regardless and feel the need to go all in out of fear that things will only get worse from now on. As a consequence, the rate of card sales doesn’t slow down, which in turn leads to sellers increasing the prices even further. And like a deadly spiral (for our wallets), the market accelerated more and more, to the point we are right now.

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I meant the gold star bubble back in the day

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I believe that Gold Stars (aside from the dogs) are still undervalued.

1.) Back then people only needed one for competitive decks. This means that people weren’t incentivized to hunt for playsets or whatevers.

2.) The pull rate is incredibly low. Its 1 Gold Star per 2-3 Boxes. If each box is 8k+ then well…you do the math there.

3.) They were printed during a relatively low point in the hobby. So there aren’t that many out there, especially good condition ones.

4.) The art is fantastic and its one of the only cards with a symbol/artifact on there.

5.) The boxes are insanely rare and expensive. Generally speaking, the sealed gold star boxes cost more than WOTC boxes. It is actually possible that there are LESS sealed gold star boxes than WOTC boxes. A sealed Ex Deoxys box would probably insta sell at a record price.
Not to mention some of them like Mew, Torchic, Mudkip are stupid difficult to grade due to print lines and silvering.

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Raw LP Goldstars are selling for more than raw played 1st edition charizards… Definitely not undervalued :joy:

Which? Only ones I could possibly see doing that are rayquaza/umbreon/espeon. Which are you referring to that sell over 1k raw in LP condition?

Consider how much money NEOs are selling these days.

1st edition base and Gold stars are undervalued.

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