As a new collector its interesting to see how prices have changed over the last few years.
pwcc auction history
10s have tripled in price since Pokemon Go, that’s getting into bubble territory imo.
There is a reason I haven’t purchased any 1st edition charizards yet. Pokemon has been riding a wave of popularity since its 20th anniversary, Pokémon Go and sun/moon. While it is awesome to see such a resurgence, I dont believe the prices are maintainable. (Bear in mind it is a relatively common card, you can go on eBay any day of the week and find one. It is truly supply and demand as charizard has always been popular. Don’t hate but it’s true) Like any market it will have its peaks and valleys. Remember that at one time in the early 2000s trophy cards exceeded 20k a set. Prices bottomed out around the mid 2000s (around 08-09) and have steadily rose again. Do I see prices dropping all the way down to bargain basement prices or even back to where they started? No! But do I predict a drop at some point, possibly. Good news is the pices has been far outpacing inflation of the USD so there is really so awesome growth within he hobby. I’m just weary that these prices can be maintained. I hope I am wrong through.
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missing an important aspect most of these buys are either high end collectors or investors eg someone that wont put them back up to sell
A bubble is a quick increase in price usually…this is over years…so it is an increase not a bubble imo.
Just because you pay x amount for a card does not stop the market from fluctuating, regardless if you relist it or not. Unless you have so much money that you can afford to purchase 90% of the market and create an artificial drought, but that seems unlikely. I fear we are close to unsistable prices, but again I hope I am wrong!
I 100% agree that prices legitimately increased. I’m just cautioning that from what I have seen over the last year with this card especially, don’t be surprised if they settle down a bit
One thing to note is that the main surge in pricing didn’t occur straight after the release of pokemon go. Maybe this is because Pokemon Go got people back into pokemon, but they didn’t really get back into collecting seriously for a while after. I can’t imagine too many people people thinking “Huh, this game is like the one I played as a kid. Lemme drop 18k on a piece of cardboard” so quickly.
Personally I wonder how much of a direct effect Pokemon Go would have on prices of higher end cards. I think that fewere collectors of high end cards would play the game, but I could be wrong.
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@mkpokecc I think you’re right to be cautious. I do want to know if you feel that it’s the same for all 1st base charizards across the board, or maybe you feel there’s some sustainability in specific grades? Roughly 110 PSA 10 charizards 1st eds isn’t sustainable. Especially with amount of demand for them, they’re routinely off the market in less than a quarter (unless they’re overpriced)
I feel that prices are a little high across the board but they are more reasonable in the lower grades. Those have seen an increase as well since people who can’t afford a psa 8-10 are moving into these. It’s hard to say, the lower graded cards still have some room for growth because of this, and less face it, if you spend 800 on a psa 6 and the price drops a little bit, it’s an easier pill to swallow than if you lost 4000+ on a psa 10. (Just an example no hard facts on that number). My advice, and it has worked for me, buy the card, not the grade. Get something you genuinely enjoy, and so what if it isn’t the most perfect example. If the card is desireable, it will sell and chances are you will make money anyway.
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Just wait, people are going to start paying like $600 for psa 2 Charizards. That’s then we’ll know its unsustainable.
I am not sure what metrics are being used to define “unsustainable”. I find it very odd that people are so critical of Pokemon go or the 20th anniversary, as these are simply a point of entry for collectors. We all accept the 2011-12 social media entry point. Even more ironically, the actual gold star bubble brought in plenty of collectors who are still here today.
If you actually investigate Pokemons revenue, it went from 1.5 billion in 2014 to 2.1 billion in 2016. Pokemon Go alone has already earned 1 billion in revenue. The competitive TCG is breaking records annually. The World Championships have grown significantly since 2011 when I originally attended.
I really don’t see a quantifiable metric to suggest an actual bubble. Prices might have their peaks and valleys. However, I think the more common trend right now are collectors inability to adapt to the current larger market.
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I couldn’t agree more with this opinion. I still get people that message me and say they only collect PSA 10s, I just think to myself ‘even the most notorious collectors don’t do that’.
@smpratte I agree, I still find the whole Pokemon Go excuse as just that, an excuse. I like to think that a 10% market demand increase (it’s much more than that but we’ll go with a very conservative number), the millenial generation getting more disposable income, a shift in the pokemon perspective (from a childs hobby to an investable collection), outside the hobby influences (things like Alpha Investments, SMR magazine, Pawn Stars taking notice), and much more under the radar influences have more impact than a video game.
I don’t mind people being cautious though, it’s an investment. Everything in the investing world holds risk, and untill the future happens nobody knows for sure.
I don’t post often. Mostly a “lurker”, but posts like these about bubbles definitely pique my interest.
I work as a financial advisor for one of the major firms in the US and have about $40m AUM. Not a lot by any means, but I’ve also grown my book and clients in a pretty short amount of time.
The term, “bubble” comes up almost every day when talking to clients. Whether it’s another housing bubble or stock market bubble, people always think they are smarter than the market and can spot a bubble forming. Very few get it right, but I would say most get it wrong. In order to understand a bubble, you need to look at what supports the bubble theory. As SMPRATTE says, there’s not quantifiable metric to suggest an actual bubble, I would tend to agree with him. I think a lot of us here on the boards aren’t multi-millionaires, but I work with quite a few. I would say that the amount of money in the world right now is also at an all time high. If you look at income, earnings, savings balances, investment balances, we are probably at it’s highest point in history (US only). A lot of that correlates to the market’s performance. Is the market in a bubble? Not really if you look at it from an earnings perspective(that doesn’t mean there won’t be any short/near term volatility). These levels are actually “somewhat” justified.
With Pokemon cards though, I haven’t really thought about what signals would be telling of a bubble or what would “justify” these prices (I mostly collect for fun). But I would put it in the collectibles and arts categories. People buy expensive art to diversify their portfolios all the time. I am adding MTG and dabbling in some comics to diversify my collectibles portfolio.
If you believe in inflation, overtime, prices will not only continue to rise because of demand for certain cards, but inflation as well. That’s a very big key that most people forget about. In 20 years, I can almost guarantee the 1st edition Zard will sell for more than it is today, if not for demand but simply inflation.
I guess my point is, that there has been a quick rise in the prices of certain cards, but if there is no evidence of a bubble, other than people not willing to pay a certain amount for a card that they could have paid less for a year ago, then that is the equivalent of someone not wanting to buy Apple stock because they could have bought it for $92 dollars over a year ago and it’s trading around $150 today.
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@pokeologist Well said, you should post more! Your talents are wasted as a lurker. 
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Allow me to echo this. It’s interesting to see someone’s perspective who has a finiacial background. Certainly gave me something to think about. I don’t know, I’m not saying that a certain card isn’t worth the money, I’m just naturally cautious. The legitimate rise in price of these cards is not lot on me. I guess only time will tell when it comes to prices.
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The old stuff like the 1st edition base zard in the auction link has been trending into another league of collecting for quite some time. I started looking at old shadowless stuff about 2 years ago before the anniversary and go craze started and people were talking about Zard Bubbles even back then when the prices were lower.
I love seeing threads like this 
I’ve said it before, but a good amount of doubt is healthy to the market because it helps prevent market bubbles from forming. Collectors with that “collector” nuance will still buy the product, while speculators, doubters, and mainstream investors will sit on the fence and watch.
Pokemon has seen the most healthy growth of any I’ve seen. It’s nearly 100% organic tomatoes.
Edit: I think the true question here is whether market saturation (a quantifiable metric) has met demand, which if so would indicate a decline (E.g. 1st edition Fossil Dragonite picking up ~30+ PSA 10s in a year, Lapras with 20+).
Interesting topic. Growth from $5k to $24k in a year or two is certainly a bubble. I mean we’re talking considerably more than any other single card ( barring truly rare cards). Charizard is a card that could trade hands over 100 times in a given year and to think that the price wouldn’t marginally diminish is foolish.
From my experience ( been in the market since 2010) the PSA 10 Charizard will drop in price but will continue to see steady growth over coming years. It’s just not realistic for a card with over 100 examples just at this grade to earn $20,000 every sale from here on out. Trophies maybe, booster pack cards I don’t think so. Not that it will go back to $5k ever but will probably settle around $15k.
Edit: as others have said, collecting what you really love and are passionate about helps combat bubbles and market saturation
Just thinking about the supply and demand for a 1st Edition Charizard, I think it’s pretty safe that the price will continue to increase in the long run. The supply of PSA 10s is effectively fixed (right? Can we rule out a hoard of 10 worthy ungraded Charizards? It would have to be huge). Demand on the other hand will likely increase over time, for reasons already mentioned in this thread.
I think the other key distinction with trading cards is that most people don’t buy them primarily to make money. Sure that’s a part of it, but I think most of us buy cards because we like them and want to own them. Realistically is any pokemon card going to grow more quickly than a good index fund over time?
@raichuforyou I think you’re viewing a bubble in the wrong way. A bubble is a price increase caused by people following exterior metric aside from the intrinsic or actual value the item has… something like if you were following the advice of a group of friends. There’s no evidence that the card is being bought for $18k+ by people following others advice, because in general 99.9% of people (US pop) still think you’d be crazy to do so.
Maybe there’s an easier way to explain that?
I agree with you that the card is in for a small temporary decline, but only based on price point versus its demand at that given price point, not because of a bubble.
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I think in the broader economy overall, there might be an asset price bubble due to the long run of historically low interest rates the world has seen.
There is a lot of money around the world seeking returns. I think this is why we see talk of bubbles in many different asset classes: Bitcoin, real estate in Canada, the US equity market and Silicon Valley startup valuations to name a few. If interest rates do end up rising, there is a good chance asset prices, include for Pokemon, will start up deflate.
Just my two cents 
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