I have studied Pokemon finances several hours a day for the past 2 months almost and, as I have completed my collection for now with the HA auction that ended today, I would like to share a selection of my findings.
The cost of some WOTC boxes appears to be under their expected value.
Calculating the expected value of a box is not rocket science. It is a weighted average of a weighted average of the value of each card for each grade (e.g. PSA 10, 9 and 8 and lower). By being priced under their expected value, it means that, if you were to open enough boxes to reach statistical average, if all assumptions are true, then you would be making money opening them. This can’t be. Sealed products must carry a premium over their content. This is true in other segments of the hobby, such as with Magic : The Gathering. By how much are boxes undervalued? As of today, March 25th 2021, the expected value of some of the most iconic sets are :
Base Set 1st Edition Expected Value : $156,276 (last selling price is +130%*)
Base Set Unlimited Expected Value : $14,796 (last selling price is +70%*)
Jungle 1st Edition Expected Value : $23,076 (last selling price is -17%*)
Fossil 1st Edition Expected Value : $20,808 (last selling price is -25%*)
Team Rocket 1st Edition Expected Value : $21,924 (last selling price is -13%*)
* Using the price of the HA auctions that ended today (all were mint boxes).
Base Set boxes are overpriced ! Jungle 1st Edition, Fossil 1st Edition and Team Rocket 1st Edition are underpriced ! Fossil 1st Edition is currently the most undervalued box.
My models use the following data as input and assumptions :
- The last selling price of each card for each condition, as found on eBay (excluding special cases, such as error cards).
- A probability of 15% to pull a PSA 10 card, 60% to pull a PSA 9 card and 25% to pull a PSA 8 card or lower (PSA 8 value is used).
- For simplification, it is assumed that every card worth being graded is graded for a flat fee of $35.
The models are available at :
Base Set 1st Edition : (link to Google Doc)
Base Set Unlimited : (link to Google Doc)
Jungle 1st Edition : (link to Google Doc)
Fossil 1st Edition : (link to Google Doc)
Team Rocket 1st Edition : (link to Google Doc)
How is this possible?
One explanation is that it would appear that the value of the cards has increased more rapidly than the value of the boxes (i.e. the value of the boxes hasn’t catch up yet). For instance, year-over-year the value of a Base Set 1st Edition Charizard has increased 6-7 times and the value of a Jungle 1st Edition Eevee has increased 6 times. Meanwhile, the value of an Unlimited Base Set box has increased 5-6 times year-over-year, Jungle 1st Edition box has increased less than 5 times year-over-year, Fossil has increased 4 times year-over-year and Team Rocket has also increased about 4 times year-over-year.
It is also possible that my models are too optimistic. For instance, the pull rate of a PSA 10 or 9 card could be lower and an average grading cost of $35 may not well reflect the reality.
Bare in mind that, as you can see from the models, the bulk of the packs (common and uncommon cards) account for a majority of the value of the boxes. This is also why Unlimited Base Set doesn’t do as well, since the bulk of this set is way more common. It is also why some rarer boxes such as most 1st Edition Neo boxes aren’t doing as well (they are much more expensive, yet the bulk remains about the same value as cheaper 1st Edition sets).
Surely there is a premium for rarer boxes?
Of course the 1st Edition Base Set boxes are something special and all other boxes that are difficult to find are worth a premium. However, it is strange why Unlimited Base Set boxes are so expensive. Between late October and early March, there were 35% more Unlimited Base Set boxes sold than 1st Edition Team Rocket boxes and there were 37% more 1st Edition Team Rocket boxes sold than 1st Edition Jungle boxes. Yet, the most expensive boxes sold were the Unlimited Base Set and the least expensive the 1st Edition Jungle.
This is not financial advise. I am posting this because I have recently purchased 1st Edition Jungle, Fossil and Team Rocket boxes and will financially benefit from raising valuations.