Yo, I’m sure that with the large amount of collectors’ focus on the financial side of things, I thought it would be cool to see what the parameters you trade around and what your 2020 have been. Here is what I have:
individual brokerage account:
must hold securities for at least 3 years
cannot exceed 30% in one stock
roughly 70% value and 30% growth
no options or micro caps
100% equities or cash
Roth IRA:
cannot exceed 200% asset turnover rate
aim for 50 50 split for growth and value
cannot exceed 25% in one stock
100% equities or cash
must pass an algo screener which I created before buying
no micro caps
Both accounts I have only been doing since I got an internship over the summer, so my timeframe is pretty wack but here is what my returns are:
IRA, +48% since I started in August
individual : +34%, since August
Looking forward to seeing others strats and results
SMH, I knew that someone was going think that this was one of those threads, but I just want to know how people think about analysis of equities (how do you do research?, what are your parameters?, which quant KPIs do you use?)
I would like to clarify that I don’t care about the ind. securities but the thinking behind it.
Heavy in equities, due to inflationary pressure (M2 up 25% YoY… wooo) and low government-backed yields pushing up prices.
Slowly shifting to corporate bond funds with some higher yield munis thrown in to sate my inner boomer (though I have concerns about munis getting trapped in a refi-spiral to keep balanced books). Will be interesting to see how bond market reacts as infrastructure plans begin to come from new admin.
Begun to utilize theta plays with higher frequency, seeing strong returns.
When it comes to traditional investing (outside Pokemon), I’m pretty boring and consistent. I have been 100% invested in FCNTX (Fidelity Contrafund) since 2011 when I made my first Roth IRA contribution. A couple times along the way I pulled out of the market when I was trying to time it, but I’ve always gone back to that fund.
My great-uncle managed investment portfolios for a living. Before he passed away he specifically recommended that fund to me, which is why I bought into it. Anyway, I know I should probably diversify now. I just haven’t gotten around to doing the research.
lean defensive and hold more cash / defensive stocks imo, unless you have unique insight / alpha for certain companies
Low interest rates skews return outcomes either sideways or downwards (as low interest rates increase present values, in a low interest rate environment that’s not much room to further reduce rates)
High cyclically adjusted multiples skews returns outcomes similarly sideways or downwards (shiller PE at 34x is much higher than wherever it has been except during dotcom, less room for multiple expansion)
Projected earnings are partially inflated by stimulus (earnings could easily depress as defaults take a longer time to materialize relative to tech companies’ jump in revenue - if earnings falls multiples have to re-adjust)
Only reason why I say lean defensive rather than all cash is because low interest rates could be around for a long time
I really like ETF’s over individual stocks.
I have one that tracks the S&P 500 (doing great).
Ones that tracks the tech sector of the S&P 500 (doing better than great).
And one made up of real estate stocks. (Not doing great at all).
The most important rules to follow for investing:
Diversify! Something like 5-10 stocks with no more than 2 in the same industry. Or about 3 ETF/Mutual funds. Anything more than that and you will end up tracking the entire market. The goal is to beat the market (S&P is the benchmark).
Invest long-term! Short-term trading is a crap shoot. You won’t beat the pros. If you do, it was luck. Check any 10 year period for the entire market. It always goes up. Start early and hang on for the long-term.
Invest periodically. Someone above mentioned what to do with $500K. Don’t just drop all that money into a stock all at once. Instead invest, for example, $10k a week for 50 weeks. This will help with market fluctuations.
The throw up rule. Don’t invest more than you are willing to lose. If the thought of losing that money makes you want to vomit, don’ do it.
I love collecting Pokemon cards, records, and first edition books, but never considered them as investments. Just a fun hobby.
Personally I believe in diversification for the general investors. Hell even investing is low mer etf/mutual fund has proven the best return for the average investor.
Now if you’re someone more experienced or knowledgeable in the financial market sector, I would go with only 3/4. DO NOT TRY TO TIME THE MARKET. It’s not pokémon, the Charizard of today can be the ratata of tomorrow. IF timing the stock market was possible a lot more people would be rich and even berkshire hathaway would’ve kept a 30%+ return for their 100 years or however long those 2 genius have been in the market.
Diversification is largely recommended because it is a shield against the market if you’re not 100% sure of what you’re doing. And trust me, none of us fully know the ins-and-out of the market, again we’d all be billionaires if we did. This year was different because even my cat could’ve put 100$ in X stock and most likely x10 the amount.
My portfolio started at around 20 stocks and the more I gained experience/recognized patterns/gained more knowledge & education on finance in general I largely took profit and narrowed down my portfolio into stocks that are predictable, simple, free cashflow generative, dominant in their sector and most importantly strong balance sheets. You may read this and go ‘‘well that’s not hard to figure out’’ but finding a company who checks those boxes surely is. There isn’t a lot of them.
And then I have the more speculative investment such as bitcoin/ethereum or companies that have to do with that sector of the market. But that’s gambling which I do not consider investing.
Some real estate but 1 of 2 because I hate renting. The latter is more of a ‘‘cash cow’’.
And collectibles we’re my main thing about 5 years ago, now having sold most of my collection this year I’ve only kept about 2-3 base 1st ed/shadowless cards and my small trophy/prize collection.
I’m still in my mid-20’s but I wish I knew even 5 years earlier what I know now. Work smart not hard kids. By just saving 600$/month at 20 years old will get you 72,000$ by the time you’re 30. Inflate that number and results only get greater over a shorter amount of time. Anyone can do this.
Or you can just say to hell with your lesson and rambling with stocks and sit on Charizords, that’s been proven to work as well if not better. Lol
The problem with this is $72,000 isn’t super meaningful at 30, not in terms of being able to retire early or anything that will give you a huge quality of life shift. If $72,000 by 30 is the goal there are about 1000 better ways to do it with much MUCH higher overall trajectory, starting with just making incoming within your career a priority.
My goal when I was young (I’m all of 33 now) was to retire early. Meant to do it by 30, had it in spades, messed it up ;p. For most though the goal is a consistent march towards a secured future, which tbh the best path (buffet approved!) is just throw $ into S&P500 and ‘get back to work’. Worry about diversification once you’re older or the gross amount is larger. Worry about trajectory early on, very small shifts make massive differences. The right connection, a negotiated pay raise, a random title bump that gives you +50% income at the next job where titles matter more than they did at the previous, etc.
This is something I can finally contribute to as I have a CFA and this is basically my job.
Anyone who is reading this thread for investment advice (don’t), you’re better off 99% of the time just investing in a low cost ETF that tracks the market. Generating a risk appropriate alpha is tough. For everyone in here who has beat the market, and a lot of us have, don’t confuse a bull market for some superior selection skills we have.
Obviously credit is cheap thanks to the Fed, so we could see an increase across the board as the money supply is pumped up, but with that comes inflation yadda yadda.
Anyways, not that it matters since everyone’s risk profile and situations are different, but I’m mainly in domestic equities, with a recent tilt from growth stocks to cyclicals as ill play the “rebound”
I don’t include Pokémon as part of my “portfolio” as I don’t own any really big big cards
I prefer to keep a lower risk profile due to the fact that there’s no need for me to take risks to live the lifestyle I would like to live. This is essentially why I cashed out on the bulk of my collection this year. At its peak Pokemon represented nearly 50% of my total net worth. Now it’s a much more comfortable 5-10%. (I don’t necessarily believe there’s anything wrong with people who are willing to have a much higher % of their net worth be in collectibles, it’s just not for me).
I am basically putting the rest of my money into equities (index funds) and real estate.
Well saving and putting money aside is a sure way to early retirement or more capital for more meaningful investment. More so than any other speculative investment. 600-1200$ range monthly in savings will net you between 72,000 - 144,000 $ within 10 years. At 30 years old that amount can generate you much greater opportunities.
Or even for someone more inclined towards investing putting that same amount in a tax-free account investing it monthly into a low mer etf/mutual fund, reinvesting dividends and compounding interest can be a shortcut to much greater return (and quicker).
Literally anyone can somewhat replicate this.
Or you can wallstreet bet on 21 red and double or nothing. All up to what your financial goal consists of!
