Expert Advice Needed: PSA $$$ Translates To Raw $$$

General
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I’ve been pricing thousands of both PSA and Ungraded cards this last couple weeks. These are my extras or what most of you know as “The Wall”.

Pricing ungraded singles that are pre-graded accurately by me is a challenge. I’m not Troll&Toad where everything is NM even though they range from played to Mint. Mine are “PSA accurate” meaning if you sent my card to PSA you’d know about what to expect…sort of like my boy Charlie’s work at Ludkins when he pregrades.

Here’s how my raw cards are pre-graded by me:

* = Gem Mint
*- = Gem Mint Minus
**+ = Mint Plus
** = Mint
**- = Mint Minus
***+ =NM/M Plus
*** = NM/M
***- = NM/M Minus
**** = NM

The above is MUCH more specific than either PSA or BGS, so keep that in mind as you read on.

So here’s the question. Based on an accurate pre-grade, how do you retail price a raw single if you’re the seller?

For those who would prefer a specific, if we’re talking about an Unlimited Base Charizard that sells in PSA 10 for $1500.00 and PSA 9 for $300.00 what percentage of that graded value would you give a likely Gem mint or mint ungraded one?
Or
EDIT: If we’re talking about a 1st Ed Team Rocket Dk Alakazam NON HOLO that sells in PSA 10 for $30.00 and PSA 9 for $20.00 what percentage of that graded value would you give a likely Gem mint or mint ungraded one?

The only answer I don’t want to hear is, “I’d just get them graded”, Simply, that doesn’t answer the question of this post. Plus, not everybody collects PSA cards so this question is of interest to them.

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For an ungraded “Gem Mint” Base Set Unlimited Charizard: PSA 10 price - grading fees (5-8%) with the option for best offer; lower price based on assumed interest over time.

$1400 or best offer. (this is just one example, there is way more nuance in cards that are more niche with varied demand.)

because grading is subjective, regardless of how trustworthy/ accurate your personal grading is, it won’t please everyone. this is because everyone values some aspect of the card more than another; whitening, scratches, centering etc. it would be easier on you to just have detailed pictures and let people judge for themselves. although, it is true that people respect your opinion more than the average seller.

It will always be difficult to sell cards that are in better condition than PSA 10/ BGS 9, ungraded, because most high end collectors prefer graded, or at the very least would be skeptical of a card “that could be graded PSA 10 or BGS 9.5, but isn’t.”

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Keep in mind I didn’t mention auctions or obo but even so, as a seller, you would list an Ungraded Unl Base Charizard for 1400.00?

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@garyis2000 ,

I definitely understand, in cases outside of auction/ best offer, the situation becomes much more challenging.

but yes, i would list an ungraded “Gem Mint” Base Set Unlimited Charizard for $1400.

now, would it sell on my ebay account? probably not. but from you or smpratte, I definitely think that there is a large enough market of collectors who trust your judgement, that the card would be a true PSA 10/ BGS 9.5+ candidate.

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Well, thanks for the nice compliment:)

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If you’re not going to get it graded, the most you can get is 75% of the PSA 9/10 price. As a buyer, I’d rather pay the 25% premium and get a guaranteed item and grade.

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Based on your information and a rough estimate of scaling prices, I’d go:

* = Gem Mint $1500
*- = Gem Mint Minus $1200
**+ = Mint Plus $600
** = Mint $300
**- = Mint Minus $275
***+ =NM/M Plus $250
*** = NM/M $225
***- = NM/M Minus $200
**** = NM $175

I’m sure there’s a mathematical logarithm that can be figured out. Basically double the value from mint up and a slight bump to Gem Mint. Mint down would be a smooth slope to keep things easier to price and understand.

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If you are looking for advice on what will actually sell in a reasonable amount of time, I would list these cards at PSA 9 prices for the majority of them. For the cards you truly think are gem mint, I think they could sell at 50%-70% of a PSA 10 price to someone that has done business with you in the past, but this could take a long time. As good as your eye is Gary, PSA graders have bad days and its too big of a gamble for a every day ebay buyer to take that risk in hopes PSA will give them the grades they deserve.

It is a tough sell, but with your store and reputation, I am sure there are some people out there willing to pay a premium on a mint card in hopes to make some money through grading. It doesn’t seem realistic to me that someone will pay 75%+ of the PSA 10 market value for a raw card.

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Agreed. Getting 75% of the PSA 10 value seems very good from the seller’s perspective.

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The question being asked here really is: given a certain card condition, what is the probability it will get the desired grade? We all know PSA does not grade with computers so even someone with Gary’s experience can label a card as gem mint but PSA might see it differently.

If you’re looking for sales, you’ll need to price the cards at a level where it is attractive for the buyer to consider your copy over a PSA graded one. So putting up an ungraded gem mint base Charizard for $1500 is obviously not going to work because anyone can just go out and buy a PSA 10 one and have zero risk. Especially with grading times being what they are lately, buying an ungraded card and sending it off will cost you money, risk, and time. The price has to be low enough for people to consider that. However, this is the logical perspective which is often thrown out the window when you list a gem mint card and all people see is dollar signs and all they hear are dolphin noises.

Personally, I will never pay over PSA 9 value for any ungraded card. But I know of many who will. I’d probably list gem mint cards at 2/3 of PSA 10 value OBO, I think that is a price point that strikes a happy middle ground.

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These prices are what you’d expect out of ungraded sales?

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For an ungraded unlimited zard?? You’d pay $175 for a raw zard that might get a PSA 7 max? And $225 for one projected to get a PSA 8? A PSA 9 zard goes for $200.

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It’s more like an ideal sale from a buyer trusting the sellers reputation. For most of we’d never see these prices. I know that no one would risk $1500 on a raw unlimited Charizard. Just trying to give you a price scale perspective on what you were asking.

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Just so others don’t misunderstand, I’m asking what the sellers here would list like a gem mint or mint quality ungraded copy for. They won’t list a PSA 10 quality base Unl Charizard for 1500.00.

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So here’s the question. Based on an accurate pre-grade, how do you retail price a raw single if you’re the seller?

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I would list a gem mint card as in between psa 9-10 price.

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Would you continue that down the line, like a nm/m @ between a nm and nm/m?

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Grade all the “Gem Mint” cards and your problems go away.

Sell the 10’s in 10 cases for 100% market value once they come back.

Sell the Mint and lower cards at their corresponding market values for what they would grade at PSA OBO. Honestly nice Mint raw cards sometimes sell for over PSA 9 price less the grading fee so you make out anyways.

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Yeh roughly, just covers me Incase the buyer doesn’t happen to get a psa 10 from the card. I can Atleast say well it wasn’t guaranteed it just had a high chance for example

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As a buyer I value gem mint raw cards at PSA 9 prices, sometimes slightly over depending on the potential pay day.

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