Hello,
Do you guys see the price of the staff charizard from Evolutions graded Psa 10, compete with the price of the first edition shadowless card today(around $20,000) 5-7 years from now? Curious to see what people have to say because from a collectors standpoint, I see something like a staff stamp as scare as that first edition stamp from the WOTC era. Thanks!
No.
Absolutely not.
Lol.
Edit: Sorry… Just to clarify a little. If you’re asking if the Staff Charizard will be worth $20,000 in 7 years, I’d say maybe. We don’t really know.
However, if you’re asking if it will ever match the price of a 1st Edition base, absolutely not. Staff could be pop 1 and 1st ed would outsell it all day.
Scarcity doesn’t always equal value. I’m sure @smpratte could elaborate more on this.
1st Ed. base zard is the most iconic card ever made. It’s the card everyone remembers from their childhood, the card that captures that nostalgia.
Staff Zard just isn’t.
I will self sabotage one of my own items to make this point: The ghost stamp Prof. Elm card I own is POP 1, and is a rare/scarce item. Even rarer than the Staff Zard. Yet the demand is not the same for the staff or anywhere near 1st Ed Base.
Market demand and/or value is usually due to numerous factors. The most general term “demand”, encompasses numerous variables: rarity, scarcity, unique artwork, history, difficultly to grade, is pikachu on the card, etc.
There are plenty of scarce/rare cards in this hobby that do not have heavy demand. Generally speaking, most variants or reprinted cards fit this bill. The japanese Daisuki Umbreon & Espeon always come to mind. They were initially awarded for the daisuki memebrs in japan, then had a much more common release in English. If that artwork remained japanese exclusive, the demand would be different.
haha
Take a look at this thread if you want to have a good laugh at this board’s ability to predict the market 
The fact is that no one has a clue what’s going to happen in 5-7 years. I don’t think people could have predicted what’s happening within the past month or two in the past 6 months, let alone the last year.
There’s just too many factors that could either contribute to or negate from the growth. If the Pokemon game on the Switch turns out to be a major success and appeals to a wide audience (i.e., the adults that grew up on Pokemon as well as yungins), growth could be meteoric. If the next series of Pokemon cards turns off players from competitive TCG or collectors (either by increasing prices too high, unattractive art, uninteresting high value cards, etc.), you might see things stagnate.
Then there’s the whole issue with, what feels like, the political uncertainty going on in the US. Will that contribute to domestic economic issues? If so, that may halt growth for quite awhile.
Hilarious.
Staff Zard is the beanie babies of the 2010’s, you heard it here first
Reprints will never compete with the original.
Lol, I thought the same thing… 
And simultaneously I know the prices of the Pikachu cards are overall higher than my Seviper or Mimikyu cards, so I guess it’s true. Same applies to cards with Charizard, Mew, Mewtwo, and other very popular Pokémon in the artwork. But the way Scott (@smpratte ) typed it so casually was indeed pretty funny. 
As for the question itself: I can see the STAFF Charizard rise quite a bit in upcoming years. It’s a popular card, and the demand is higher than the supply with something like this, especially graded. Will it reach 20,000 USD in just 7 years? Most likely not. Will it do so in 15-20 years? Yeah, maybe. I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. Would it ever be worth the same as a 1st edition Shadowless Charizard in the same year? No. Even if the STAFF Charizard will ever reach 20k, the 1st edition Base Charizard would be way over 50k by that point…
Greetz,
Quuador
