A reputable seller asking quite a bit over last sold. Let’s see if he can pull it off!
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Why would you sell something like this on facebook?? oh well, another one to hit the market, where are the ex deoxys boxes?
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I’ve seen people offering $1m for 5 boxes on FB recently and offers < $300k for single boxes. The buyers are out there just no sellers.
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DFW pokemon was offering $400k for a box recently, so let us see what happens.
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I wonder if there are people with EX Deoxys boxes that just don’t realize that they’re worth close to $50k lol. Because EX Deoxys doesn’t get the same publicity so the only way someone would know is if they went out of their way to check.
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I’m convinced the last box was bought as a publicity stunt. I’d be very surprised if this sold to someone who wasn’t looking to use it as a way of advertising themselves in some way.
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To be fair…isn’t the EV actually pretty decent? The price doesn’t seem too bad when you look at the prices of the cards. I wouldn’t be surprised if the box was actually positive EV at $450k.
Positive EV for the total of all cards pulled? I feel like the majority if not all of the cards would need to score a 10 for you to get close to making your money back. Then again, if you sold packs at $12,500 a piece you’d break even.
Yes. I haven’t done the math on it, but some simple math suggests that the EV may be decent (taking prices from the 1st Ed. Base tracking thread that jeremypadawer keeps updated):
Total holo set value in PSA 10: $415k (which he believes is a significant underestimate – I also subtracted Machamp, obviously) – this means that if you pull a holo and it gets PSA 10, it’s (on average) worth $28k. Out of the twelve holos in the box, let’s assume that only 2 get PSA 10s. So thats, on average, $56K.
Total holo set value in PSA 9: $109k (again, minus Machamp, of course) – this makes the average holo pull (in PSA 9) worth $7k. Let’s say the remaining 10 holos receive PSA 9. That’s, on average, $70k.
Total non-holo commons/uncommon set value in PSA 10: $73k(not including energies, using weighted average of 3:1 for yellow:red cheek Pikachus)-- this makes the average non-holo common/uncommon you pull, in PSA 10, worth almost exactly $1k**.** And you pull 288 non-holos per box. Let’s say 25% of those get 10s. That means, on average, $72k from those.
Total non-holo common/uncommon set value in PSA 9: $9k(no energies, weighted average of 3:1 for yellow:red cheek Pikachus) – average of $120 per. Makes the 216 remaining commons and uncommons, in PSA 9, $26k.
And finally, there are 24 rares. Conservatively, in PSA 10, they are worth about $1100 a piece (on avg.). In PSA 9, they are worth about $400 a piece (on avg.). Let’s say 25% get 10s. That’s another $6k. The 18 remaining, in PSA 9, will be another $7k.
72 energies at, conservatively, $60 a piece:$4k
Final Total: $241k (as a very, very conservative estimate, because the values he cites are past sales, which he says vastly underestimate the current market value).
The true EV (at current market values) is probably closer to $400k. So I doubt that it’s positive EV at $450k a box. But it’s not too far off. And it would be very easy to pull above $450k. Like, Logan Paul’s box may very have been over $450k graded. Definitely, without question, over $250k. I honestly think that a $450k price for the box is highly reasonable if the prices for 1st Ed. Base stick.
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And you are still taking the chance that your holos are even good holos. That you even pull a zard. 12 out of 16 holos and duplicates can happen. Changes the expected ev a lot instead of just taking the average of the 16 holos in a 10 or 9. So many variables go into a box at this price point.
You could end up barely breaking 150k if you truely get a bad holo box along with bad centering/silvering/factory holo print lines and end up with 8s and 9s that are all “pack fresh”.
Honestly if that box were to be opened and extract max value it would be way better to weigh them all and keep the 24 light sealed and sold off into the light pack market/be graded. Would get you an easy 200k+ return right there with lower grading cost and much easier liquidity imo since graded packs are going for about 10-12k atm.
Just my thoughts on it and prob how i would go about opening a box like that if i had the capital to do so 
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Yeah – the value is superrrrrrr skewed. But the math I did is accurate for the mean value. But yes, it could vary a ton. You could get a $1m box or you could get a $50k box. In effect: it’s a gamble, but the EV is still very solid.
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Very solid analysis dude! I agree that a good tactic might be to sell off some packs and gamble by opening a few, although that would be high risk as well. In any case, looking forward to tracking this over the next few weeks and months.
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I think if you have one of these boxes and you’re not some big YouTube celebrity who can sell the packs for 20k each then you’re best off keeping it sealed.
People are opening these, how many sealed copies will be left in a year or two?
I know I rant and write long posts but if you read my super sarcastic comment in that thread… you’d realise you’re right. They’re planning to launch a new coin based around Pokémon cards / a new blockchain based digital asset marketplace… going to do the whole big PR stuff, hype up, use manipulative fomo-inducing marketing techniques to lock in unsuspecting seed investors, etc.
(1) the only news source that reported on the subject is “benzinga” a highly sketchy news and alert based platform for those who day/scalp trade on signals. The owner of that platform and site is a little bit controversial and most information out there or about him is fluffed up black hat SEO back links and paid blogging bs
(2) the individual who “bought” the box, Chris Cam$llo another interesting character. At all times it’s presumed that Chris, J@ke (first name of everyone’s favorite pumper) and another guy are all “partners” on this venture. The “record setting box price” is actually the box that J@ke posted early October having paid roughly 150k. The only news breaking service that posted about “record setting” new price (375k) comes from the highly sketchy blog that is a pay-for-promotion type of site. Think, AwesomePennyStocks (3B$ p&d Canadian operation that went belly up a few years ago), and every other traditional (early 2000 to like 2012 penny stock pump site that tried to work around the whole legislation by being “marketing news companies”). Anyhow, irrelevant. This guy did NOT pay 375k. In fact, he didn’t even exchange funds for the box I would suspect. He’s basically been brought on to act as the “face” of the venture (venture being the con) I think it’s called a straw man deed?
Anyways… so this Chris guy is known is for being very controversial and actually making outrageous claims, playing the super I don’t follow follow traditional advice blabla I made 2M$ out of 2000$ because I created a new branch of investment based on investing on current social and digital marketing trends and hypes (essentially what Gary V has been doing for years and anyone else who is a long time successful investor / trader). And through his little medium he mentions somewhere that he advised his followers or whatever to look into the companies that cater to the collectibles and CCG world because he saw how the interest and demand was spiking during lockdown (so did 10 million others of us thus the continued price increase duh).
In this bullshit paid for biased article announcing the box break, we have a few red flags. For one, he doesn’t mention from where or how the box was acquired, but mentions it was paid for by his partners using their crypto entities funds. Then, he mentions he’s doing this for charity and mentions the name of the charity. The article is seperate in a way, where you would assume there would be a separate heading and paragraph describing WHO AND WHAT the Charity is, what they’ve done so far, who is involved, where can they be reached, etc. Instead that part is only mentioned in the introduction and first paragraphs. The subsequent ones are:
Growth of Pokémon cards —>
explain and validate the current trend of demand for collectibles and nostalgic things rising. Mentions high profile individuals who can be used to assert and validate and rationalize the increased spending (LP and Logic). Uses the name of a highly reputable auction house and offers the opportunity to get in early (where a REAL new price will set a NEW AND REAL precedent, by conning people intermittently into believing a new box price has already been set). Finishes off with suggesting he is “getting in early — much like he has and done witb crypto”.
Connecting Investors And Collectors —>
So his purpose of buying this box is to "bridge the “world of investing to world of collecting.” — because he capitalisés early on trends in regards to making both financial and investment decisions but also uses his foresight to create new businesses and ventures by self promoting his interests — he wants to bring the poke community together and closer with the investor community. He ends it by saying TO HIS KNOWLEDGE, he is the first “investor” to buy into Pokémon. This is how you know this site is full of cr@p. You are by no means any different or entitled to a superior title or interpretation of what the word “investor” means. If he was a hedge fund PM or Capital Markets / Private Equity PM and said to his knowledge he’s the first FUND MANAGER to divest funds into the Pokémon world, I’d say fine. Lmao gtfo here.
About Cam$&lo —>
Describes all his accomplishments and successes and his super foreword thinking and first to market type of guy and mentor and teacher and investor etc. We get it
Last part is “ways to invest” —>
Talks about the areas and sectors of the market that will or can capitalize from this growth and plugs in his other businesses (which is divulged by the site — unless they want to end up like the AweaomePennyStock guys — for his NEW VENTURE called ___ which offers fractional ownership into sports cards and collectibles 
And for which it concludes that you can start investing as of the release of that article into a set of very ambiguous 1st edition Pokémon cards through an initial public offering of 125k.
Do I need to keep going here? And the charity cover up is just a tax shield mechanism, the crypto purchasing is a money laundering scheme, etc. It’s sad because I wrote about this stuff maybe 2-3 months ago in other posts that this was where the trends were going 
because I too like Mr. investor there earn a living predicting and capitalizing on trends.
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Forgot to mention, to his professional analysis he predicts there’s roughly only 50-70 boxes left in the ecosystem. Where are your fact buddy? Wether it is true or not.
Graded Power lists a box for 450k (because said new price was broken through his acquisition of 375k)
Heritage has one coming up and whoever’s box that is will only anticipate that if by the time of auction next week, if Graded announces a finalized sale of 450k or more, that this box will be worth more.
As for this guy actually “breaking the box” it is highly suspicious they keep ambiguously mentioning this “new way” to do it… I anticipate they will just be raising 125k (1/3 of the claimed 375k box price) and raise the funds to offer equity ownership of 33.333% of this box at a market cap of 375k.
Once Grade breaks new “real” price, and subsequently Heritage breaks that new price. They will start showing their “concept” has legs and that youre initial investment into that IPO has already gained X% in just a few weeks time to legitimize the platform and what they’re doing.
There is almost every element of the most organized pump and dump scheme.
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I’ll add on…
FB marketplace reaches millions. It’s also connected to the FB groups you join. A lot of big time players use that platform. I’ve seen some of the best collections on there, YouTube and have seen some screenshots from IG.
Might not always get the most exposure from just lets say eBay, so I say the heck with it, why not lol.
Seems like people are spending like no other anyways, regardless of where Pokémon stuff is being listed.
@pokebowl definitely! I feel like there are just the right amount of gullible people in the hobby right now for something like that to work. If something like that does happen it will be interesting to see if it becomes some Ponzi scheme or if it’s an ICO with some arbitrary limit which they are in full control of. Either way it sounds like bad news.
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It is 100% a Ponzi scheme and a pump and dump short/long term scheme. They are going to use the excuse of relying and “trusting” the blockchain network to manage/host whatever. By doing this they are removing themselves from the obligation of following certain rules in regards to tender offers, registrations, regulations, etc. Because The United States is just so beyond fu$&ed up to begin with right now and as of the last 4 years, the focus has entirely been shifted from forcing and pushing change at a government level for crypto and blockchain related ventures beyond their initial interference when ICOs and Binary Option Scams started depleting billions from people and destroying their finances and retirement funds.
The initial “flipping” mentality, once you start scaling your business model, you face multiple barriers to entry and red tape. The most important ones being LIQUIDITY as well as acquisition / sourcing of higher end and *actually* scarce goods. This is a problem that has plagued almost anybody on this board who both holds and deals in a substantial amount of transactional volume as well as total sales.
The solution? IOUs. Paper assets. If at any point you don’t ever need to physically own the asset because it is owned by many, those investing seek only to buy and sell their monetary contributions from such a platform. The money they raise and control can subsequently then be used to hedge against potential collapsing prices in the collectible market by investing/hedging into actual securities, futures, options, etc. In other words it becomes a pure game of speculation and gambling. Over/unders, predictions, etc.
So the human psychology and rational of anyone looking to run, operate and promote a Ponzi scheme, is that at no point someone loses. They just are able to leverage the fact they can use other people’s money to make A LOT of money (because their strategies worked a few times or their concept works on paper, etc.) by scaling these theories… enough to be able to pay people what they have seemingly been promised.
The only other factor that was missing, was understanding the volatility as well as the elasticity of the market. The factors that both influence it positively and negatively. The ins and outs. Which has been the last 6 weeks of shilling and market manipulation done by using social media / influencers to promote things (as to seem organic) while having vested interests in certain products or areas. Or by shilling bids just enough to lose auctions but create new breaking prices. Now that everyone has realized how “easy” this all is, it’s GAME TIME baby.
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This is exactly the issue with collectible markets generally. There’s zero oversight or regulation – it’s basically the wild west. That means that there’s a lot of opportunity to profit, and a lot of opportunity to lose money, too. I’m not convinced that this whole ‘scheme’ is nearly as concrete and planned as you make it sound. That said, I think you’re recognizing something interesting. People need to stop with this “there’s no market manipulation” nonsense. That’s bullshit. It doesn’t mean that literally everything is manipulated – but there’s absolutely manipulation. And it goes way beyond simple auction/BiN shilling.
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@pokebowl, damn dude this is wild. So once they raise the $375k from seed investors, their equity will “grow” based off of future box sales prices? I feel like there is a limit for that eventually. And at what point do they sell?
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