How much is a 1st Edition PSA10 Base Set Worth? 2020

Articles
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Base Set Pokemon

Introduction
This will be the first installment of many articles that I hope to write on analyzing the price movement of all cardsets in the Pokemon trading card game.

Naturally I had to start off with the Base Set 1st Edition PSA10 collection seeing as it’s very expensive and generally what people are interested in the most.

Let’s jump straight into it!

*All data is retrieved from the official PSACard.com website!

Holos: ($115,055.49)
1.) Alakazam ($5,550)
Sold: 2020–06–29
6M: +$1,345 (+32%)
1Y: +$3,074 (+124%)

2.) Blastoise ($19,999.99)*
Sold: 2020–04–17
6M: +$9,999 (+100%)
1Y: +$15,394 (+334%)

3.) Chansey ($4,949.99)
Sold: 2019–08–21
6M: +$1,149.99 (+30%)
1Y: +$900.99 (+22%)

4.) Charizard ($36,110.54)
Sold: 2019–12–23
6M: -$3989.98 (-10%)
1Y: -$3989.98 (-10%)

5.) Clefairy ($3,199.99)
Sold: 2019–11–17
6M: +$249.99 (+8%)
1Y: +$599.99 (+23%)

6.) Gyarados ($3,995.00)
Sold: 2020–05–20
6M: +$1,747.78 (+78%)
1Y: +$2,370.00 (+146%)

7.) Hitmonchan ($5,999.99)
Sold: 2020–01–26
6M: +$2,599.99 (+76%)
1Y: +$2,599.99 (+76%)

8.) Machamp ($910.00)
Sold: 2020–06–28
6M: +$200.00 (+28%)
1Y: +$150.00 (+20%)

9.) Magneton ($5,300.00)
Sold: 2020–06–29
6M: +$3,675.00 (+226%)
1Y: +$3,750.00 (+242%)

10.) Mewtwo ($5,200.00)
Sold: 2020–05–20
6M: +$2,898.00 (+126%)
1Y: +$3,402.00 (+189%)

11.) Nidoking ($3,950.00)
Sold: 2020–06–29
6M: +$2,600.00 (+193%)
1Y: +$2,550.00 (+182%)

12.) Ninetails ($2,650)
Sold: 2019–10–31
6M: +$363.74 (+16%)
1Y: Same price

13.) Poliwrath ($3,150)
Sold: 2020–05–24
6M: +$1,960.36 (+165%)
1Y: +$1,900.00 (+152%)

14.) Raichu ($4,399.99)
Sold: 2020–05–15
6M: +$1,877.99 (+74%)
1Y: +$2,423.99 (+123%)

15.) Venusaur ($7,495)
Sold: 2020–06–21
6M: +$2,956.00 (+65%)
1Y: +$4,495.00 (+150%)

16.) Zapdos ($2,195)
Sold: 2019–12–31
6M: +$325.00 (+17%)
1Y: +$420.00 (+24%)

For the remainder of the cards in this set, we will just display the last sold price for a PSA10 copy.

Rare: ($8,154.71)
Beedrill ($890.13) , Dragonair ($899.95), Dugtrio **($599.99),**Electabuzz ($599.99), Electrode ($499.99), Pidgeotto **($455.00),**Clefairy Doll ($250.00), Computer Search ($296.99), Devolution Spray **($889.00),**Imposter Prof.Oak ($349.00), Item Finder ($605.00), Lass **($565.57),**Pokemon Breeder ($202.61), Pokemon Trader ($345.00), ScoopUp **($206.50),**Super Energy Removal **($499.99)

Uncommon: ($8,424.47)**
Arcanine ($390.00), Charmeleon ($499.99), Dewgong **($200.00),**Dratini ($525.00), Farfetch’d ($129.99), Growlithe **($499.99),**Haunter ($300.00), Ivysaur ($380.01), Jynx ($235.83), Double Colorless **($229.99),**Kadabra ($515.00), Kakuna ($300.00), Machoke **($400.00),**Magikarp ($227.50), Magmar ($145.76), Nidorino **($200.00),**Poliwhirl ($142.50), Porygon ($147.50), Raticate **($106.00),**Seel ($134.50), Wartortle ($872.09), Defender ($199.99), Energy Retrieval **($200.00),**Full Heal ($129.99), Maintenance ($69.99), PlusPower **($139.99),**Pokemon Center ($200.00), Pokemon Flute ($182.50), Pokedex ($200.00)
Professor Oak ($346.21), Revive ($88.17), Super Potion ($85.98)

Common: ($5,140.38)
Abra ($180.00), Bulbasaur ($680.00), Caterpie ($160.00), Charmander ($530.00), Diglett ($99.00), Doduo ($99.99), Drowzee ($91.11), Gastly ($130.00), Koffing ($102.50), Machop ($130.50), Magnetmite ($110.01), Metapod ($91.00), Nidoran ($114.99), Onix ($132.50), Pidgey ($100.00), Poliwag ($99.99), Ponyta ($100.00), Rattata ($96.00),Sandshrew ($70.00), Squirtle ($515.00), Starmie ($157.50), Staryu ($97.00), Tangela ($123.99), Voltorb ($86.00), Vulpix ($128.50), Weedle ($140.00), Bill ($79.99), Energy Removal ($83.17), Gust Of Wind ($101.00), Potion ($72.42), Switch ($69.24), Fire ($55.00), Grass ($60.00), Lightning ($64.99), Physcic ($99.99), Water ($89.00)

Conclusion:

I estimated a complete PSA10 graded 1st Edition Base Set to be valued at: $136,775.05

Let me know if you guys have any suggestions on what I can improve, what extra analytics I can report in these small price-guides.
I know it’s far from a perfect estimation, so I appreciate and welcome any feedback :blush:

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Hey, unfortunately the data on psacard.com is woefully inaccurate. They miss a large amount of sales and sometimes their data is almost a year old based off one sale. I would never use them for your valuations going forward. For Base Set, some members recently created a similar thread if you’d like to search for their results. Best of luck with your future reports!

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Hi,

Yeah I absoloutely agree, which is why I tried only picking auctions which I could view and auctions that were not re-listed after being sold.

sometimes their data is almost a year old based off one sale

So are you saying that sometimes the date displayed on the psacard pages is innacurate?

Also could you direct me to the pricing thread for base set, would be interesting to see how far off I am!

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Just a very very quick lookover, Blastoise is worth like 10k-15k max not 20k and charizard is worth probably 60k not 36k

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So I’m going off this eBay auction sold on June 14th 2020.

This is pretty much all that I could find that’s been sold recently.

Are you going off private data or am I missing some public data?

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A Zapdos went for $5500 last month

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Go through sold items on Ebay. I appreciate you thought o offer the growth, but most research would have to go through Ebay IMO

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Hii, so I’m guessing you’re talking about this listing here, since it was sold for a best offer and the only number that was available to me from the eBay API was $9,999 I decided not to include it because I was not sure how much it actually sold for.

So I decided to use the last auction that I did have a price for!

Can I ask how you know how much it sold for?

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Here is the thread in question
www.elitefourum.com/t/tracking-1999-pokemon-psa-10-base-set-1st-edition/28629/1

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Thanks! I was looking in the wrong board :stuck_out_tongue:

Also thanks for the feedback, I will take everything you guys said into consideration for the next article!

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Sorry, but as others have said, a lot of the data points you’re using are extremely inaccurate.

For example, the Charizard auction that’s being referred to happened in 2019, but also was for a Charizard that had a cracked case. That Charizard had to be re-submitted to PSA to fix the case and in such circumstances PSA does not guarantee the card will remain the same grade.

A more accurate estimate is the $72k BGS 9.5 Zard with 2 10 sub-grades that recently sold. I also know of a PSA 10 1st ed Zard that sold privately for months ago at an evaluation of $75k. I’ve seen offers of $60k for one and these people have not been able to find any sellers.

Chansey is also woefully underpriced, while Blastoise is overpriced.

Also like… you didn’t even include either the Red Cheeks or Yellow Cheeks Pikachu in your OP, which combined sold for over $3.5k for most recent sales.

Among many other flaws in your estimates.

Here are more realistic estimates in the current market:

Alakazam - $5-6k
Blastoise - $12-15k (E4 current offer of $14k and hasn’t been able to find any sellers)
Chansey - $13k-15k
Charizard - $60-75k
Clefairy - $5-6k
Gyarados - ~$5k
Hitmonchan - $7-10k
Machamp - ~$4k
Magneton - ~$6k
Mewtwo - $6-7k
Nidoking - ~$4k
Ninetales - $6-7k
Poliwrath - $3-4k
Raichu - ~$6k
Venusaur - $7-8k
Zapdos - ~$5k

I’d estimate around $25-30k for the non-holos although I would really need to comb through more data to be more precise.

Keep in mind this is just a snapshot in time, and prices can be very different tomorrow (if they’re not already).

Taking the average of all of these estimates, it adds up to $182k. Of course, take all of these estimates with a grain of salt, because they’re just estimates. I went slightly more conservatively in my estimates than simply last sold price - like Jeremy did, which is why his estimates have the set at over $200k

This is just the reality of where we are now based on sales we have seen in recent months.

Having said that, if a complete set went on auction today, I highly doubt it would get as much as what the individual cards add up to. There are many reasons for this. But the bottom line is that if you’re a seller, you’re insane to try to sell it as a complete set when the individual parts add up to so much more. (On the other hand, if you can find someone crazy enough to sell you a complete set at a discount, go for it)

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Damnnn, thanks for the detailed analysis!

I’m guessing for the near future, definitely stick to looking at the completed auctions on eBay and staying away from PSACard atleast for looking at listings sold most recently.

Thanks again for your insights, incredibly useful for me going forward :blush:

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I used flippertools to check when that site was working. Unfortunately it’s down, at least right now. :slightly_frowning_face:

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Slabwatch.com worked for me a few days ago but you need to put in the actual link for the item rather than just the item number so if you’re doing it on your phone you have to look up the listing on eBay’s website rather than the app.

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Really appreciate all the effort you all put into tracking this stuff.

I’ve been buying moderate play 1st base and I’ve determined a set is worth $9k usd w/ a little less than half of that value from Charizard. That said, I missed out on a deal for $4.5K last week on offer up, and yesterday I bought one for $6.5k

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Seconding and third-ing what everyone else has said. Among the others mentioned, $2600 for Ninetales and $5000 for Chansey is woefully outdated. I know of one individual turning down offers of $17k for Chansey last month. So in leu of this the title would be more appropriate as, “How much was a 1st Edition PSA10 Base Set Worth? 2019-2020”

If you want up to date sales data Jeremy has the scoop. (See thread posted by Qwa).

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Yeah I’ve been reading the other thread mentioned and it seems to me to be far more accurate.

Also another thing, how far do we trust private sales data?

How can we trust that both parties have indeed sold X card for Y value. Malicous parties could agree to pretend to sell for a very high value/low value (skewing the data) and therefore manipulating the market depending on what benefits them.

I’m sure that the private data in that thread is between friends, and people in this community who know one another and can vouch for each-others character.

But I think going forward, as the Pokemon TCG expands, this will be an interesting problem in the future.

(This concept of white-wash trading is very common in other markets)

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If you want your data to be accurate you would have to provide citations for those private sales which point to evidence. Anyone can claim to have bought or sold a card for a certain value and without any proof of that transaction you should disregard it - that’s what I’d do, anyway. If you wanted to dig deeper you could always contact the buyer or seller and ask if they’d be happy to share evidence of the sale with you, but you’d need to make that evidence publicly available for your data to be believable, reliable and future-proof.

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Sure, it’s okay to be a little skeptical when you hear about private sales data, but I believe most people on E4 when they talk about such sales, and some people I totally place my trust in.

Even if you don’t trust what you hear about private sales data, there is a certain logic to estimating price for a particular car.

In short, it goes something like this.

1 - What are known sales for the card in question?
2 - How much has the set as a whole moved since the last known sales of this particular card?
3 - What are known sales of other cards in the set?
4 - What is the population of the card in a specific grade relative to those other cards?
5 - How popular is the Pokémon species in question?
6 - How much do people appreciate the art for this particular card?

It’s not a perfect science but rather an art form to use questions like these to figure out prices that make sense for particular cards.

So for example, when I hear about things like what was mentioned above, a person offering $17k for a Chansey but not being able to find a seller, I absolutely believe that - because it’s the lowest pop card in the set by a good bit. The majority are likely to already be attached to complete sets. People understand this is the hardest card in the set besides Charizard (because of sheer demand). So even using the last known private sale, which is something like $13.5k, or the last known public sale, which may be something a hair shy or $12k, isn’t necessarily the best estimate of the true value of the card.

So what I’m saying is that, known sales are important to keep track of, but once you get a feel for the factors that help determine prices for particular cards, you can get a feel for how to estimate prices for other cards in the set to fill in the gaps in your data set.

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That’s incredibly interested. I didn’t take any of those things into consideration when I was writing this up!

I can absoloutely see how those factors would sway a price valuation one way or the other, but I have to go back to what I know from trading assets in other markets.

Someone looking for a seller and qouting how much they are willing to pay for it is not the same as someone actually following through and paying that much for something. For example in Stocks, you can set a limit order that you want to purchase 5 TSLA @ $1500.

$7500 is then taken out of your online wallet, meaning that unless you cancel, and the system finds a seller, that transaction is executed.

I’m only making this comparison to show that qouting how much someone is willing to pay for something, and actually putting that money down are two different things. The user who was willing to pay $X might change their mind when a seller appears, but because they put no money down, they are un-affected whereas in a platform, a contract would be executed the moment a seller is found.

But again, going back to what you said, if someone on this forum that you trust and has a proven track record in the past of putting their money where their mouth is, then it increases how seriously you should take that offer in your estimations.

You’re taking analysis to a whole another level mate! and I feel like I have much to learn from you!

Thanks for taking the time to educate me!

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