I was wondering on which set I should invest a couple of boxes in. The XY Evolutions or wait until Sun and Moon base set. Just looking for some thoughts.
I have seen people getting cold feet on the Evolutions set. Had multiple people comment that they are weary about the longterm investment potential of it now that they realise that A LOT of people have invested literally thousands upon thousands into the set.
I think itās fair to say the response to the set was much larger than even the most optimistic people had projected. I am going to go out on a limb here and say that the longterm forecast is going to be strong but there are going to be bumps and dips along the way. Once they start hitting 150 US each there will be a dump or mini-dump that drops prices, itāll recover and then the same sort of drops will happen at 200 and 250. I also think that people underestimate how much this set will continue to be opened. When the boxes hit 200 US a pop people are still gonna be opening these left, right and centre.
The set is popular, and itās popular enough that the amount that has been hoarded wonāt be as large of an effect on potential growth as some may think. Honestly though I think Sealed Boxes are probably the single safest investment you can make in Pokemon so you really arenāt going to be hurt no matter what you do.
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At this time, I could see Generations being a better long-term investment (especially sealed boxes, not so sure on the mythical boxes) than XY. Everyone is hording boxes and boxes of XY Evolutions and the product will have a massive print run. Itāll still increase, but I donāt expect to see a flashfire or Roaring Skies type jump as quickly with Evo.
What cards do people want from Generations though?
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I agree that the set was lackluster and I donāt believe people will be buying the product to open, but the scarcity & distribution methods are appealing. I think the set had enough of an impact to not be thrown to the side, and the 4 big ālimitedā Red/blue boxes are solid. Donāt get me wrong, I think Evo will do just fine (I have a decent bit sitting around) but I have conflicting thoughts about much of an increase and how long down the line.
@joetehman I agree. I was curious since I never hear anything about Generations cards. I think there is something to the mythical boxes, because you could get them so cheap, and they were out briefly. For me, I think people over hype the ānicheā release of generations. If it had a niche release with awesome cards, that would be quality. But people got tired of Generations right out of the gate.
Also, most collectors looking for sealed product want a booster box. That is the main goal of sealed collecting. A booster box is also the most dynamic and has the most potential.
I personally have both Generations and Evolutions sealed product, but Evolutions brought people back into the game. I donāt know what that is worth long term. IMO outside of those mythical boxes, I think Generations doesnāt have much of an identity.
I donāt know that this is a dissenting opinion per se but I think Generations definitely has the potential to outdo evolutions in the short run.
No one is going for the cards right now, but itās worth noting that the set does have two Charizards, a FA Pikachu, Blastoise/Venusaur cards, more than half a dozen Eeeveelutions, FA Articuno/Zapdos lookinā sleek AF, and RH energy that donāt look like total butt. Generally speaking, most of these arenāt the type of cards that appreciate to $100+, but theyāre the type of cards that creep upward over time and can make the packs worth opening. With Generations, Iām not looking for an expensive chase card. Iām watching a handful of cards do their natural thing and seesaw back and forth with the value of the sealed product so that I can leverage the scarcity of the total productās possibilities.
On top of that, the product is just so damn limited. You cannot get sealed Mythical boxes from four months back on retail shelves. This is unlike every other tin, collection box, and booster pack. I can find old stock of everything EXCEPT generations without much hassle in person. So people have to go online, which I believe will quickly deplete what is sitting around. No booster boxes, sure, but there are a good number of people still buying packs. Riskier no doubt, but itās a large market anyway and it canāt be neglected. Especially if youāre a high feedback seller that people are more likely to trust when you say āunweighed.ā I think that will have more significance in this circumstance where there is no sealed box alternative youāre competing with.
Additionally, every other overlooked set like this has surprised us. People talked pessimistically about Call of Legends in really similar ways. And it sat, and sat, and sat, and then within a six month period of depleting the online reservoir of unsold product, it doubled in price. And people still arenāt really looking for Call of Legends cards! Thatās the craziest thing about it. Nothing makes a perfect analogy to Generations, but CoL definitely comes to mind when Iām thinking about it.
Iām not ready to say that Generations will do better than Evolutions because I think theyāre apples and oranges, honestly, but I think Generations does have potential and that it would be unwise to discredit it too much. The set has a lot going for it in ways we have and have not seen before. And we arenāt in a place yet to assess the demand for evolutions relative to its print run. Generations is done being printed. Evolutions has an entire year to go and weāre already seeing it fill half the slots in the tins theyāre making.
I do think Evolutions will be printed heavily. I mentioned this in a video a couple days before it released in English. I remember cautioning that the English print will go for awhile. However, there is no denying Evolutions is a much more popular set.
The problem with both sets is they are two separate parts that should have been one whole. The Evolutions set (actual cards) was what everyone wanted. Generations release is more limited (assuming they will continue to print evolutions). Combining those two main variables into one set would have been (ā¢_ā¢) ( ā¢_ā¢)>āā -ā (āā _ā ) Evolutionary.
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I agree entirely that they should have been one set.
As for how we make investing decisions consider how they were released, though, Iām calling Generations a better short-term investment and the long-term undetermined. Iāll end my moratorium on what I think about Evolutions after it has stopped being printed.
I wish that I could speak more specifically, OP, about what I think, but Iād need to know more. How much are you looking to invest? What is your risk tolerance? Are you in a place to invest? If you have any debt, donāt invest. If you donāt have enough money to survive at least a year if everything went to shit right now, donāt invest. If you cannot afford to wait on a Pokemon investment to go up in its own time, youāre going to lose money guaranteed. Seemingly good investments in Pokemon can lag behind what we want them to do and take several more years to mature. Hell, neo shinings took a decade too long to mature in my opinion. But if youāre dead set on investing in it, provide some more info on how long youāre able to go without touching the cards, what youāre willing to spend, and other info about your situation.
I feel like Evolutions could have a base/jungle/fossil booster box type pricing trend (similar trend just lower future ceiling and higher short term floor) over the next 10-15 years or so. I say that having no idea what trend base/jungle/fossil booster boxes exactly had in the years 2000-2014. I assume it had a few years of stagnant pricing if not depressed pricing because of how high the print runs were and how hard the crash was in popularity of Pokemon. It just feels like it is going to be extremely overbought/oversold/hoarded, yet due to Pokemon being what it is, it will perform well overall in the years to come. Better or worse than any other sets? That is harder to say.
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Now just wishing they do reprint of jungle and fossil 
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Here I am buying Full Art M Charizards because their beautiful hoping that it will be a decent investment LOL
Evolutions is a long hold, the best investments are the ones that no one thinks to hold onto, which in evoās case every man and his catdog seem to be hoarding.
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Must just be me who can still find nearly every single Generations product still on the shelfā¦
That being said, Iāve had the opportunity to flip a lot of Generations (had a buyer who wanted them at RRP back out leaving me with a lot of boxes).
I easily sold them with significant markup too.
Maybe itās just easier to get a hold of Generations products outside the US? I havenāt been able to find ANY of the initial release Mythical boxes on the West Coast US in stores (California) for literally months now; Amazon, eBay, etc. have had huge markups for the early Mew/Celebi/Jirachi/Manaphy boxes for almost half a year - from my experience, Generations has sold just as well as Evolutions has and even the Generations Elite Trainer Boxes are starting to see some very pricey markups for a few months now.
Also, I recently replied to someoneās comment on Reddit re: Generations investing, and I too am in the camp that it appears to be a better short-term investment than Evolutions, but long term is still largely uncertain - but I do feel very good about its prospects. With all of the Generations cards being relegated to box sets, the scarcity is definitely there and it has just enough notable cards (Charizards, Jolteon, Articuno and Zapdos FAs) to stay relevant.
I managed to snag 5x extra Mew + Mewtwo Super Premium Collection boxes at under their retail price of $80 and judging by the price of the two Promo cards alone right now (~$37 for both on eBay) I already feel very good about my investment in these particular boxes because itās actually a really solid set (2 exclusive Promo cards, a figurine, a really nice artbook, 3 exclusive deck boxes and 10x Generations boosters). Other than these 5x boxes i went ahead and snagged an entire sealed set of all 11 Mythicals and 5x Elite Trainer boxes.
With Evolutionsā¦I just completed a Master Set, sold all my bulk and havenāt bothered to purchase any additional sealed product from it as the desire just isnāt there for me with that set (in hindsight I could have saved so much money had I known I could grab a Master Set for $200 like a month later). Donāt get me wrong, Evolutions has been fantastic and it is amazing how much of a home run it is, but for me who has the original 1st Ed. Base Set the glitter from Evolutions quickly fades once I realize I have the āreal thingā alreadyā¦I could miss out on this ship big time, but itās a chance iām willing to take since a lottttt of other people already seem really well invested in Evolutions.
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The voice of reason. Too often, what seems like a good investment tanks and what seems like a loserā¦BOOM, it hits.
So now how do you feel? Lol.
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I got a few of the XY Evolutions booster boxes in both English and 1st Edition Japanese. Thereās a little bit of something for everyone in this box!
Itās just too hard to say what the sets are going to do, because if we had the answers, we wouldnāt be discussing it.
I honestly feel that CP6 will be a stronger investment than Evolutions, but thatās just opinion and the supply seems to back that up initially.
Generations is a very interesting set. Iām interested to see how it goes too, Iāve purchased a couple of products here and there purely for investment, I guess Iāll see how it goes. I donāt think Iāll lose anything but am prepared to if it happens.
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Personally I invested in all three. Generations, CP6 & Evolutions Why? Because 20th Anniversary product. But I deeply believe that it would be more realistic to accept that they are all short term investments. I cannot stress enough how PokĆ©mon is more of a Nostalgia thing more than anything. Once the 80ās & 90ās kids loose interest the value of everything will go back to cutting even or less than retail value. I honestly donāt see any one buying meloetta boxes at age 40 or any Sun & Moon kids buying Base Set booster boxes in the future. To say that Evolutions is more popular than generations is kind of unrealistic, thatās something only TPCi can know. Generations product completely sold out and so did Evolutions, so Iād say they are on the same level. Nonetheless Generations was limited to special boxes whilst Evolutions got mass produced into booster boxes and loose booster packs. Iād say they even them selfs out in terms of value Generations (more limited less appealing cards) Evolutions (Way mass produced more appealing cards) CP6 (actual language of the set that came out in '96 while Evolutions isnāt[1999], 1st edition & Gem Mint quality) evens each other out.
Even though this whole investing thing is too annoying, itās safe to say that yāall should invest in WOTC.
Til later,
'M
Evolutions definitely sold more than Generations on intial release. Distributors had to request more product directly from Pokemon in the first week of Evolutions release. I had to reduce my order as distributors had so many orders. Also, CP6 outsold any recent japanese set by a long shot. CP6 came out of the gate like a super sayin 3 usain bolt on steroids.
What the sets will do long term, who knows. I definitely agree that WOTC is a much better option to purchase for blind general investing.