Podcast with investor and real-estate expert Graham Stephan:
18 Likes
Great job Gary! Thanks for doing this interview. I enjoyed it!
2 Likes
Gary: Has seven figures worth of cards
Also Gary: Has iPhone 6
In all seriousness, can’t wait to give this a listen tomorrow at work.
3 Likes
Lol the backs of those cards must be pretty cool for such a reaction
11 Likes
Seven figures? I’m pretty sure Gary is well into the 8 figures at this point lol
2 Likes
Gary playin 4D chess sayin the 1st ed zard should only be worth 200k. Then once it drops he pounces and gobbles the rest up!
4 Likes
Wow…and here I am just trying to get base set lol
1 Like
He’s at the point where he can tell you to throw the zards like a frisbee and he doesn’t mind. What a boss.
1 Like
Lol. I could be wrong but I seriously feel that way. I wouldn’t pay over 200k for one.
Graham is a new neighbor having moved this month from California up here to Vegas where he built a home. Steve and I wanted to make him feel at home so we invited him over. At the same time he wanted to do a podcast with me cause he is a Pokémon enthusiast. He had asked me earlier to do that. We’ll be kicking it for New Years too. It’s great getting new friends for neighbors.
10 Likes
Hey Gary, I respect you a lot man and what you do for the hobby. It’s really great what you guys do! Love watching the content you guys produce and the cause you support.
I just had a few questions that I thought I would ask you man! I’m just quite confused by a few things after watching that video!
You mentioned that you thought the 350k+ charizard was overvalued but I remember reading a comment you made not too long ago saying that you believed the charizard would reach half a million next year, something along those lines, I’d have to dig out to find it so don’t quote me exactly on it! Where would you think it should be valued on the current market? Has there been a reason perhaps your mind might have changed?
You mentioned you thought shadowless charizard was a good investment. I was wondering how can the shadowless charizard be a good investment on the current market whilst you have mentioned the 1st Edition one is overvalued? Are you suggesting a scenario whereby the 1st Edition Charizard would drop and the shadowless one would increase? Is the 1st Edition Charizard not guiding the shadowless charizard price? My understanding is that the shadowless and unlimited zard follow the prices of the 1st Edition and that 1st Edition would always be in the most demand and should always be significantly more expensive then shadowless even if shadowless is rarer?
Also regarding the BGS 9.5s 1st Edition Gyarados and Blastoise and the heavy booster packs. I just wanted to share some data with you. Two recent auctions on PWCC of 1st Edition PSA 10 blastoise have been 35k+ and 45k+, and I think you quoted a 30k valuation. Regarding the Gyarados, 4 recent auctions/public sales including 3 on PWCC in the last two months have all been 15k+ and you quoted a 10k valuation. The most recent ebay auction 1st Edition Heavy Booster Base Pack sold for less then 15,000 USD on a Probstein auction that I can see at least.
I’ve used ebay completed listings to get my figures, but I was wondering where you got your figures from buddy?
Do Heavy 1st Edition Base Packs sell for 25k? Are light packs selling for 10k? These two estimates would mean the following.
25*12 = 300k
10*24 = 240k
This suggests the box valuation is at least 540k USD. There is a 1st Edition Base Booster Box available for 350k open to best offer. Would the boxes not be snapped up at the 350k price as this is an incredible deal?
For Blastoise/Gyarados valuations are you quoting the BGS 9.5 variant prices or PSA 10 prices as the figures I quoted you are PSA 10 sales? Is a quad BGS 9.5 valued the same as a PSA 10?
Thanks a lot for your help man, sorry to point out these things, but I’m just quite confused after watching the video and thought I should ask you for some clarification! Please guys check to verify anything I am saying guys as I am searching ebay from the UK!
@lowpopping,
I was quoting the BGS prices on the blast and Gyarados. I believe the shadowless 10 Charizards are underpriced and the 1st Ed are overpriced.
The 500k price from before, I may have been referring to the bgs10? Can’t recall that one.
Oh, it doesn’t surprise me that any cards sell for high amounts. It’s just that sometimes it doesn’t make sense. Take the PSA 9 Unl Charizard. Recently they were selling for 4-5,000.00. Today you may pay 1,500.00. Most knew that 5k was overpriced. Well that’s how I feel about the 1st base 10s.
1 Like
Just found out He has 9 1st ed boxes. If I had the money I’d take the risk on a single pack to get that squirtle.
Gary you beauty this is just what I needed to see me through my next 2 runs lmao, brilliant!
2 Likes
Ah I see fair enough if you were quoting the BGS prices, not many public sales of them.
Very interesting statement you made, it’s definitely something for me to think about regarding the relationship between shadowless and 1st edition!
Most 1st Ed 10s have actually moved far less in comparison to the zard, it’s only really the zard which has seen an excessive % growth in comparison.
Nidoking/Zapdos/Poliwrath with sales of 7.5-10k, these cards were selling at around 1.5-2k USD last year, (4-5x)
Zard 40k → 350k (9x).
Even take Venusaur 4k (last year), currently trading at 22k (5.5x).
Hitmonchan last sale around 14k, last year trading at 3.5k (4x).
Blastoise approx 40k this year, with 6k last year (6-7x).
Alakazam/Gyarados approx trading at 15k USD (2.5-3k USD last year), again (5-6x)
Magneton 2k to a last sale of 8K (4x)
Clefairy 2.5k to a last sale of around 11k (4.25x)
Chansey 5k to around 35k (7x)
That’s my observation personally - just rough figures off the top of my head, a Zapdos last sale of 7800 USD just seems way too cheap to me, Even your base Unlimited zard grew more in % terms from 250 to 1500 USD (6x growth) after it’s enormous fractional drop then some of the non-charizard 1st Edition holos!
Maybe I’m mistaken about what you wrote, it’s just something I thought I read a while back, but that is fair enough.
Thanks a lot for taking the time for reading this message and responding! As much as I respect your opinion, these are our opinions and I guess we just have to let the market speak for itself! These markets certainly aren’t predictable!
@lowpopping Make sure to consider the opportunity cost. There are only 121 1st Edition PSA10 Charizards in the population report, with the majority of them being tied up in collections. The massive price increases have brought quite a few to the market recently; however, the amount we’ve seen available in recent months probably isn’t sustainable. I think Gary is right, that to a lot of collectors, it’s overvalued. On the other hand, many of these sales are being driven by wealthy celebrities and investors. Personally, I think the 1st Edition PSA10 Charizard has transcended the Pokemon community and will continue to see significant growth due to competition outside the Pokemon community.
2 Likes
If the higher supply you are suggesting is unsustainable and will reduce in the further, why would that then mean that it is overvalued?
The feels… in grade 6, I also had a card stolen, after i showed it off
… a holo… i forget which… but, he will never be forgiven.
“To a lot of collectors, it’s overvalued.”
I’m saying that most collectors aren’t valuing it that high . . . most don’t have the capital to compete and those that do, might pursue other cards of interest with that capital. Investors, however, are largely concentrating on this one card, knowing that it’s value is likely to increase in the broader market. As I said, I think the card has transcended the Pokemon community and will continue to grow based on interest from outside the hobby. That’s just my personal opinion/speculation on it.
Personally, I believe if the 1st Edition PSA 10 is overvalued, and does see a retrace, you would see a far further retrace in both the shadowless and unlimited zards, I would find the opposite very difficult to believe could happen.
This is because the tier order is 1st Edition>Shadowless>Unlimited. If your highest tier cards fall, it makes no sense that your 2nd tier card can grow in value.
Just my opinion though, and I can be wrong, but let’s see what happens. But please note, the growth in the non-charizard 1st Edition PSA 10 Holos have been far less then the charizard 1st edition PSA 10 holos.
Ah right fair enough buddy thanks for clarifying that with me!
I would personally say the card is out of reach to a lot of collectors, but not overvalued for a lot of them and overvalued vs out of reach are two different things! When I hear the word overvalued it suggests to me that it’s market price is far above what fundamentals/analysis suggest it should be!