Just curious what you guys are seeing for pull rates. I’m kicking myself for opening a case of Lost Origin hoping for Giratina to get zero alt arts. I did get 3 Rainbow Rares, Gold Mew and Pikachu. 5 Trainers, 3 Full arts, Gold Dark Patch and Gold Collapsed Stadium but man it was a brutal opening! I’d like to try a little more to pull my first alt art but at this cost I’m not sure really. I have Fusion Strike, Silver Tempest, Brilliant Stars and Lost Origin for options main one I like is lost origin id even be content with Aerodactyl.
How much have you guys opened of recent sets and what was the results?
I got 2 Silver Tempest boxes on Christmas and these were my pulls. No alt arts but it was my first time opening the set so I enjoyed the variety of TG cards and the gold Lugia
The maximum of a booster box I’ll open is 2 so I can get 99+% of the non-holo cards and enjoy the random variety of hits along the way. After that I tap out and buy singles if there’s a specific card that I want.
Always fun opening packs but starting to get way too hard to justify it considering pull rates. Honestly, if you want to have fun opening and want alts your best bet is to wait for Crown Zenith and open a ton of that. Also if you want that Giratina just buy one and you’ll prob end up saving a lot. Overall just me but CZ seems like it’ll be the best packs to open that you won’t feel like you got 0 art cards.
Going in I knew it was bad. But I expected 1 per 3-4 booster boxes or so. After a case all together not individual boxes I figured I’d have to hit at least one. Honestly my favorite pulls are the black and gold mew and Pikachu I hit.
Then for values am I missing something even V cards are like $0.15 now so out of all those hits I have like 2-3 cards worth $10 and the rest worth hardly anything
Some others helped me figure out that to get individual rates you need to open 1m+ packs, which no one will get close to, so it’s really only figuring out how many rarity tiers there are and how many cards are in those tiers.
Besides Lost Origin, all the alt arts have the same rate as full arts.
So for example Brilliant Stars: 21 full arts, you get 1 every 25 packs so 14.40 boxes to get them all. Individual rate should be 1 in 518.
Evolving Skies, 38 full arts, around 1 every 27 so 28.77 boxes for all. Individual rate should be 1/1035.
Basically only difference is the number of arts in the rarity tier for each set and the individual rate is just dividing it given that they have the same rarity.
Pokemon aren’t deciding to give each card an individual rarity like the graphics imply.
Agreed. The graphics are limited to their 4,000-8,000 sample size. Rates are going to be approximately equal in the population, as you suggest. Whether 1/600 or 1/800 packs, the sentiment is that it will be incredibly difficult to pull an individual alt art from a set.
The graphics are misleading for sure. If you average the numbers for alt arts and round to the nearest 100, you probably get a decent estimate of the probability of pulling one specific card.
There is valid information to be extracted but generally I think the graphics are more misleading than anything, especially with how little the average person has a grasp on probability and statistics
Yep it’s difficult, but so are all the other cards in the same tier. Just that the demand is many times lower so they can sell for under $10 or under $5.
But a lot of people look at the graphics and then conclude that a full art is 1/25 but Lugia is 1/684 which is why I say they are purposefully misleading.
The author once asked for feedback about their article/graphics - I pointed out why it’s misleading and they didn’t respond lmao. After all, it’s in TCGPlayer’s best interest to keep demand/prices higher.
It is possible to have different rates for a “normal” full art and an alt art. Other card games do this (e.g., MTG, Weiss), and it’s called “track printing.” For example, they’ll seed one chase card per case. That is why some individuals suggest to buy cases of certain card games (looking at you, Weiss), rather than individual booster boxes. It’s not uncommon for someone to crack a case, hit the best card of the set, and then sell the other unopened boxes.
In this scenario, that is what would describe the discrepancy between alt art rates and full art rates. I would assume that Pokemon partakes in track printing to maintain the artificial rarity of their chase cards for each set.
I don’t know about how other card games handle their products but Pokemon has been predictable. We have leaked sheets of cards. Charizard Base was not rarer. It had the same rarity as the other holos and so had the same rate.
The only difference is once again how many cards are in each rarity and how that configures into an 11x11 sheet. Even the latest release - Crown Zenith - we’ve seen an Art Rare sheet leaked following the same design.
Pokemon don’t consider alt arts a different rarity. Also, TCGPlayer will never reveal the rates they got for other cards in their sample because it will conflict with the reality they are trying to present. When you look at others - Danny Phantump, Reddit, even PokeRev opening packs, what card that they pulled zero of or was hardest to pull would be a random card.
edit: Also there isn’t a discrepancy in that quote. They are making sure to present 20 cards as one rarity and 1 card as a separate rarity. It is intentionally misleading.
Aren’t alt art Vs under the same rarity as full art V in English? In core JP sets of 2022, every one of the 6-8 V gets a SR (full art) but only 3-4 get a SA (alt art) which is also SR. SA is just a variant of SR; alt art is just a variant of full art. English sets bundle together at least 2 JP sets, one of which doesn’t have any SA (alt art), so another set of SR (full art) cards would be added to the mix. Not to mention that SR Supporters from those sets are also technically SR (full art). So how is maintaining artificial rarity via track printing deduced from this if there are naturally far fewer of them to pull than full arts?
Yes, there are fewer alt arts than full arts, so the rate of pulling an alt art will naturally be lower.
Track printing might be used to restrict a specific number of alt arts per box or per case. This helps to “even out” the experience across a population so that the rate is consistent, rather than having one lucky guy pull 12 alt arts from a single case. Randomization only works so well at scale, so track printing can help to ensure expected rates.
I am not sure if Pokemon uses it, but it is well-known that other TCGs do use it.
You’re only expected to get about 9 FAs in a case though.
Not sure if SIT increased the rate but SWSH-LOR that has been the case. And if you’re unlucky you can still get 0 FAs in a box.
Hopefully they change it up for the new generation like they promised.
Because even if some FAs are worth as little as $2, they are still at minimum 1/550 individually and often worse , which may not be rare enough at scale considering their lack of demand, but the experience of the individual consumer is awful. If they are already not worth much, then increasing their rate won’t make much difference to their value but provides a better experience for those who open packs.
The best is of course to increase rates and make better art, then demand increases for all of the cards in the rarity. Fingers crossed. We’ll know soon enough.
so out of all those hits I have like 2-3 cards worth $10 and the rest worth hardly anything
