Modern Alternate Art. The New Gold Stars?

[niece]

Are Modern Alternate Arts the New Gold Stars?

I have had this conversation in real life and wanted to bring it to e4. Is the Modern Alternate art doing for the hobby what Gold Stars did back in the day post WOTC post 1st Editions.

I am no mathematician. To be honest math is not my best subject. Its why I enjoy Pokémon the math is pretty simple and with damage counters well this is definitely my math level. You could go in a lot of directions with this. I will only highlight two things in starting the discussion.

Some basic information. Gold Stars could be considered the first Alternate art cards. Gold Stars were Generation IV and part of the EX-series. This was the first series released by Nintendo and the Pokémon Company. The cards were released over 10 sets 2004 until 2007. I believe there are 28 Gold Star cards released 3-4 per set. I added some links to Bulpapedia for full reference on the history of the series. Only counting Sword and Shield, (10 sets), there are 71 modern Alternate Art cards.
(Pokémon Trading Card Game - Bulbapedia, the community-driven Pokémon encyclopedia)

[Pokémon ☆ (TCG) - Bulbapedia, the community-driven Pokémon encyclopedia]

Going just a little bit further before getting the discourse underway, I want to talk a little about pull rates and card distribution. As our founder SM Pratt often says, “There is always another set card.” Set cards are produced in mass so even when a card is considered rare its still one card of thousands in some cases millions. Let’s compare pull rates. The Gold Stars to Modern-day Alternate Arts.

Gold Stars 1 in two boxes. (72 packs)
Lost Origin 1 alt art per 6 boxes, (216 packs)
Arterial Radiance 1 alt art per 4 boxes (144 Packs)
Brilliant Stars 1 alt art per 4 Boxes (144 packs)

Keeping the math simple. By these numbers it is 2x harder to pull a Modern Alt Art than Gold Star. Before you decide. Here is one more bit of information to consider. In 2005 The Pokémon Company released year end information stating that 13 billon Pokémon cards were produced. In March 2021-March 2022 Pokémon Company produced 34 billion cards! Currently there are almost 3x the Pokémon cards being manufactured. So, which is the harder pull?

2005 Pokémon cards produced

Pokémon Trading Card Game - Bulbapedia, the community-driven Pokémon encyclopedia.

Using this rationale, it was harder to pull a Gold Star than it is to pull a Modern Alt. Less Gold Stars cards, fewer cards produced. Even though the pull rate was higher it still made this pull harder. I think both are tough pulls. You could really get into the math and start figuring out how many Gold Stars or Modern Alt art cards are produced, however its way above my pay grade. I think that the Modern Alt Arts are fantastic. They have brought the art to a whole new level! I believe they are the New Gold Star. Like Gold Stars they are bringing a new level excitement to the hobby, after darker times. I am interested in other people’s thoughts. What do you think?

[Will]

From a numbers perspective, one point to clarify is while there may have been 13B produced by 2005, not nearly all of those were from the gold star era. Someone likely knows more than me, but I would bet a majority of that is from base-rocket.

The pop reports are a good reference here. The pops for gold stars after 15+ years are a fraction of modern alt arts even a year after release.

Edit to include that I love alt arts! They are some of the most exciting and beautiful cards to be produced in quite a while

[pfm]

As @Will mentioned the 13 billion was the total printed up to 2005 I believe. I also believe something like 3.7 billion cards were 2020-2021 and 9.1 billion cards were printed in 2021-2022 (43 billion by the end of 2021)

I can only speculate because the numbers aren’t per set. But you’re looking at something on the order of 10x to 100x more booster boxes of each set today than for the goldstars

I’m actually not a fan of the comparison to gold stars. I always feel like these types of comparisons attempt to borrow the legacy of another class of collectibles in order to try and make assumptions 3abot what prices will look like down the road. I think in this case the alt arts have carved out their own place in this hobby distinct from gold stars, which is really a positive place to be

[niece]

@will @pfm Thanks for the numbers clarification. Fair enough. Some are looking to comparisons to look at prices down the road. I guess you could interpret this that way. I agree alt arts have carved out their own place and brought new and old collectors to the hobby. All good stuff. For me it was a more emotional question. I used potential pull rates just to add to the conversations. Some collect for the chase. As you know there as many reasons people collect as there are people I chose these two sets of cards because for me, that is the last time I could imagine being excited about a new set and opening new packs. . I can’t say I am a study of Pokémon between 2007-2017, and know less about that error, but for me the alternate arts have reinstalled that excitement to just rip open some packs and hope for a beautiful alt art! Its just fun! Fun like ripping open a EX pack to try and pull a Gold Star. I was wondering if others felt similar.

[Dyl]

It is unhelpful to compare rates (e.g., 1 per 72 packs vs. 1 per 216 packs) when ignoring the population size. I think the pop reports tell a very clear story.

Here are the most populous gold stars (EX Unseen Forces) after 17 years.

Here is the Evolving Skies Moonbreon (215/203) ~1.5 years post-release.

Both types of cards are difficult to pull. However, modern Alt Arts will never compare to the scarcity of gold stars due to their significantly higher population.

[humbleon]

You have to take into account the demand side which i think is critical.

Most likely the demand for modern alt arts are far greater and will outpace the demand for gold stars going forward.

I am astonished how liquid are those alt arts (usually selling within a day if not hours). Any collectors want to have a modern alt arts. Ask if a collector can live with not having a gold stars? that could give you a hint on the importance of the demand of modern alt arts.

Regarding the pop report, have a look at the derivative of the past few weeks… it flattened. When PSA opened its flood gate, a big chunk of existing alt arts were submitted and have already been graded. There surely be more but I doubt the pop report will behave like the zard’s champion path.

if the pop report for moonbreon was close to the entei one, its pricing today will be far superior than any gold star.

[niece]

@Dyl, @humbleton, pop reports are useful too but can also be misleading. They help assess value I guess. Look at how many WOTC sat in closets and basements until 2020. I do agree that after 17 years it’s harder to track down a card in good condition, where alt arts are still in production. “Rarer minter, better” What I love about Alt arts is @humbleton’ s point, people are collecting and seeking these new cards, maybe some to flip, bit certainly some like me are collecting the art from these cards. These things keep the hobby strong imop. I love the Gold Stars because they were so unique at the time and the chase was enticing. I love alt arts allow for greater artist expressions of Pokemon and the chase as well. I pull one and feel like I’m a kid!.I had to choose a mint Gold Star over a mint Alt art. I’d take the Gold Star. Value may be part of it but difficulty in obtaining would play the larger role in my decision. Alt arts are still available in good condition. Gold Stars not so much.

[wisewailmer]

I like alt arts a lot. I don’t own too many but here are my thoughts on them;

Almost every era has had its big chase card with low pull rates. Exact pull rates simply reflect the size of the hobby at that time. 1 in 200 chase pull rates would not have worked for gold stars or shinings etc. Im glad that modern pokemon has cards that excite everyone and dont collapse into worthlessness as many other print to demand tcgs do. It is helpful to new collectors. I personally put gold stars in the same tier as 1st ed base and i can honestly not see any way that alts would ever be anywhere near this tier. Id say right now your average 12 year old collector probably has a few of these alt arts (i personally traded with a kid at the NH trade event who must have been 8 years old for celebi v alt and a few others). Back in the day not everyone had even 1 copy of a chase card. I hope they do well but people realy need to curb their lust for stonks on these things. A lot of alt art hype has come from vintage being too out of reach for the past 3 years so tpci had to make something more attainable. Now vintage is attainable again and people are trying to hold onto these things like theyre in the same tiers as the cards that literaly built this hobby. Alt arts did not really matter when vintage was attainable in 2019 and unbroken bonds and team up came out. Nowadays it is truely hard to decern what is legit and what is hype/being pushed

[tcgmaine]

I think the other thing to consider here if we’re talking about price point is that cards today seem to be much more optimized than they were back when Gold Stars where being released. While there are plenty of people in this hobby who collect just because they love the cards, you can’t ignore the mass amount of people who flock to modern because it’s easy and as others have said, incredibly liquid. I think this has raised the baseline price of many of the alt arts from release (its far more common now to see a card hit $100 in a new set than it was in 2017) and thus the price trajectory will likely behave differently than it has for vintage cards in the past. I do agree with @pfm that alt arts will have their own special place in Pokémon’s history and really I think that’s the best case scenario.

[bk2021]

It all depends on how much higher the demand is for alt arts because there is much more supply than Gold Stars. That also depends on the casual/average collector staying for long and Pokemon continuing to grow in the future.

Personally I don’t think that most of the market will crossover to Gold Stars. Without the nostalgia glasses, most of the art doesn’t compare, so if you have limited finances, which one would the average collector of today choose?

[wisewailmer]

Gold stars dont require new collectors to drive the prices. Most of the money in this hobby is not tied up in the new collectors

[bk2021]

I’m talking about the future of alt arts.

Some people here are very sensitive to anything new potentially influencing their collection value/investment position and yet disparage new investor types from only thinking about the money.

There’s a reason alt arts are in high demand when they aren’t even the rarest cards in the set - it’s because of the art that this community is supposed to be appreciative of.

[Will]

I don’t think anyone here is disparaging people from collecting alt arts. They are beautiful cards with outstanding artwork.

I think all anyone is saying is that making a direct comparison between gold stars and alt arts has some challenges, with the exception that gold stars were one of the chases before, and alt arts are the big chase now.

It’s very possible that the supply and demand curve align and that from a financial perspective alt arts do very well! But it is likely premature to make a direct comparison given alt arts are the current chase. Without knowing what the next thing will be (numbered alt arts, autos, something different?), it’s hard to know where something recently released will compare to something that is already time tested. That goes for anything, not just Pokemon cards.

To niece’s original point, I’m very happy that pulling an alt art has the same feeling as pulling a gold star did. That feeling is something hard to replicate

[wisewailmer]

I have some alt arts i just get urked sometimes when they are constantly called investments and compared to the highest pillars of english tcg cards. I own 1 gold star so i dont really have a position on them.

I feel like the collective echo chamber that alts will let you retire in 10 years needs a healthy contrarian view every now and then. Because as dumb as it sounds lots of people legitimately think that

[zork]

If alts help them retire in 10 years, then gold stars should help their grandchildren retire.

I think most people are coping with the idea that they missed the boat, and by that I mean these “speculative investors” are hoping and praying that in 10 years, their PSA 10 Umbreon VMAX Alt will have been a “steal” at $1,000. Will it be profitable to hold? Sure. Will it be gold-star-profitable? No shot. Scarcity, as always, reigns supreme – and in the age of the junk slab, there are just too many people with graded alt arts.

[casual]

One thing I will say, is that most people casually collecting will never own an AltArt card, in the same way that most kids getting a few packs here and there when we were younger probably didn’t get a gold star either.

However, alt art in general, doesn’t really fit into a whole class of cards imo. Like they don’t really share an identity.

Also you CAN pull a bad alt art, but most of the gold star cards were extremely popular pokemon.

[niece]

@wisewailmer I think Alt arts are a legit a positive modern contribution to the hobby just as @pfm and @tcgmaine said. They hold their own place. The legicy of that place remains to be seen. As investments to put your kid through college with? That could be hype. (Especially considering the cost of college!) Only time will tell. Maybe in the future alt art will just be what Pokemon cards look like.

[zork]

To be clear, I think Alt Arts are one of the best moves by TPCi in recent memory – they inject new life into the TCG and the timing was immaculate. But I can’t help but think about this nugget:

@niece

Maybe in the future alt art will just be what Pokemon cards look like.

I’m not sure where you go from Alts, if we’re talking about the next frontier of pokemon cards. But I’m sure they’ll find a way.

[zorloth]

A critical point that has not yet been mentioned in this thread:

Gold stars have condition rarity whereas alt arts don’t. Nearly all alt arts printed in 2021/22 are in mint condition, and they still will be in 15 years. The reasons behind this are obvious and have been discussed ad nauseum in other threads.

Whereas gold stars (excluding the Unseen Forces ones for obvious reasons) are rarely in mint condition. It takes one second to glance at the pop report and realize this is the case:

There are 762 mint condition TRR gold stars in the PSA and CGC pop reports combined.

There are 9713 mint condition Brilliant Stars gold stars in the PSA and CGC pop reports combined.

And if we take into account the rate of pop growth, the story is even crazier. Brilliant Stars currently “only” has 13x as many mint graded alt arts as TRR has mint graded gold stars. However, that paints a misleading picture that is much too kind to alt arts:

• There have been a total of 11 mint TRR gold stars added to the PSA pop report over the past 5 weeks (a pop increase of ~1.5%).
• There have been 1412 mint Brilliant Stars alt arts added the PSA pop report over the past 5 weeks period of time (a pop increase of ~20%).

When the dust settles, it’s conceivable that the population of mint Brilliant Stars alt arts will literally be >100x that of TRR gold stars. And this isn’t because TRR gold stars are artificially scarce – in fact, the opposite: gold stars were significantly easier to pull than alt arts. The difference is that adults are now opening product en masse and preserving the cards. And through doing this, they’re ensuring that the cards printed in 2022 will never be collectible in the way that WotC/EX are.

Oh, and this is all ignoring the fact that TRR boxes are rare as fuck whereas Brilliant Stars boxes line the closets of speculators across the world. Meaning: there’s significantly more potential mint supply of alt arts than gold stars.

TL;DR: gold stars are collectible in a way that alt arts never will be. It’s great that people enjoy collecting and appreciating the beauty of alt arts, but the idea that they will ever be like gold stars is clearly incorrect. As collectibles, gold stars have vastly better fundamentals in pretty much every conceivable way.

[wisewailmer]

Honestly they should just give you your law degree. You always articulate this stuff very well. I can hear the anguished cries of the modern hype beasts from here