So, recently there was a pretty big discussion about Surging Sparks. More specifically; is it investable. This got me thinking about making that discussion a bit bigger in scope.
Right now, modern (let´s say Sword & Shield/Scarlet & Violet) is booming. Some say this cannot last because the high POP numbers will prove problematic. Others think that it will not be a problem for investing at all because the demand is also a lot higher. The Illustration Rares/Alt Arts would simply be more attractive.
My millenial brain finds it hard to agree with the latter because nostalgia makes me like the WotC cards more than anything. I also like to have low POP cards (which is why I love Evolutions holo´s in a 10; they combine these traits). But, I cannot deny that some of these Illustration Rares are beautiful. Also, there is the fact that a lot of these cards keep going up in value despite sky high POP´s.
If I had to guess, I would say that interest will return to vintage on a broader scale (meaning these low POP´s will drive the prices up again) and that there is a significant chance that too many people invest in modern without real interest, meaning it could decrease if people start selling. I would therefore still choose vintage.
Note; vintage would be WotC. For this discussion the intermediate era´s are ´semi modern/vintage´.
I don’t think the “answer” lies in one vs. the other. I think both modern and vintage cards have the potential to increase in value with time.
I think it’s also important to differentiate sealed product vs. singles. Once a set goes out of print, the amount of sealed out there will always be decreasing, and the pop reports in theory will always be increasing. Modern sealed is very boring, but generally speaking is very consistent with value increases.
I’d also recommend you define “modern” vs. “vintage” here to help with discussion so everyone is on the same page!
IMO the Modern Sealed Market is in a really good place short to medium term, but less so long term. Short-Medium term, demand is continuing to be driven by collectors, streamers and “investors”, who are purchasing up sealed product (mostly small scale but some large scale operations) to either open now, or hoard for whenever it “stonks”. Unless the economy tanks, its a comfortable bet that these 3 groups will all still have strong interest in modern (SWSH/SV) for the next few (2-5) years. This helps modern sealed and individual cards continue to rise at a steady, and sometimes irrationally explosive, rate. Buying nearly any (looking at you Battle Styles) set at or below MSRP will almost certainly make you money over the course of a few years.
Long term, I think the outlook is less clear for multiple reasons: What will be the ratio of supply vs demand for sealed SWSH and SV product 5-10 years from now? Demand may very well wain as we get further away from the set, as prices continue to rise, or even if the overall economy goes south. Additionally Sealed Supply is almost certainly going to be significantly higher than it currently is for sets that are 5-10 years old right now. I can forsee a future where prices stall out for a few years on most sets.
To summarize: Short term good, long term maybe not good due to uncertainties in demand and a probable long term increase in supply vs current 5-10 yr old sets. I’d feel comfortable predicting that most booster boxes will go from $100-150 to $300-400 within 4-5 years of release, but uncomfortable as to predicting how or if they will grow in value from there.
There is no such thing as “low pop” for a set card. IF one card gets hyped, a ton will start being sent to PSA. Jungle Pikachu / Eevee were good samples during 2021.
LOW POP should only ever be used on cards with REAL RARITY AKA Creatures, Trophies, Prizes, Lotto, etc.
Modern Vs. Vintage is such a black and white argument it isn’t worth discussing other than your own personal opinion on what you like better or if you like both.
No one asked for my opinion but… I LOVE D/P and HGSS ERA!!!
I think a big thing to specify that often goes unacknowledged is time period. Are we talking 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years?
Short term will probably be great for modern. the longer out we go, the more unknown. I can see a possible world 10-20 years from now after another 3-6 generation of pokemon where SWSH and SV kinda of get lost in the fog and the amount of mint product that has been preserved really hurts it in the long run.
Or maybe people will look back at this being a really golden era. Who knows.
If I had to guess, I would say that interest will return to vintage on a broader scale (meaning these low POP´s will drive the prices up again) and that there is a significant chance that too many people invest in modern without real interest, meaning it could decrease if people start selling. I would therefore still choose vintage.
IMO, those that are more drawn with a low pop over anything are the ones only concerned about “value” and have no genuine interest in the cards.
It’s a question of risk. Let’s say I bought a bunch of Crown Zenith or Surging Sparks packs at $3 or $4 each. What are the odds I can’t sell them for $6 once they’re a few years out of print? Something would have to go very, very wrong for that to happen - maybe Pokemon loses cultural relevance. Maybe a bunch of CT scanning services chase each other to the bottom and somehow offer scanning for $1 a pack. Maybe a counterfeiter appears that can make perfect bootlegs. Maybe there are countless people with closets full of cases and few people care about this era once it’s over, so demand never outpaces supply… I could go on.
All these events seem very unlikely to me. As long as Pokemon is printing packs and selling them for $4, out-of-print sets will probably be worth more than $4 (and very possibly a lot more). I couldn’t be more comfortable buying good modern sets when they’re near distributor pricing.
Can’t say I’m nearly as confident about modern chase cards with many thousands of copies, or about a booster box that’s already going for ten times retail.
This topic has been beaten to death; it’s worth looking at older threads that are iterations of this subject.
My opinion: vintage feels extraordinarily undervalued compared to modern. Though by vintage I don’t mean non-holos and other undesirables. I mean actually good stuff–e.g., sealed WotC/EX, mint gold stars, mint exs, mint Neo 1st Ed. holos, mint e-Series holos etc.
It’s worth noting, though: I and some others on this forum have felt this way for years; yet modern has continued to do well despite our prognostications. So as sincere (and, IMO, well-founded) as this viewpoint is, take it with a grain of salt.
As @destase pointed out, this is best understood as a question of risk.
The current modern market is predicated on a hitherto-unseen level of demand for Pokemon. It is characterized by preservation and grading of singles at multiple orders of magnitude above even 5 or 10 years ago, the large-scale stashing of sealed product for investment, and the incessant investment-focused marketing of modern Pokemon cards.
There are two options for this: demand continues to increase (especially for modern cards), print numbers continue to become effectively meaningless, and investment becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy a-la-cryptocurrency (how’s crypto doing now eh?). The modern fans rejoice, and post on instagram calling anyone who said anything somewhat negative about modern a FUD clown who missed out on #tothemoon.
The other option is that Pokemon is in a boom cycle which will eventually taper off or enter a decline. If the demand falls, modern is the most exposed to risk with its comparatively massive supply of stashed sealed product and 14k PSA 10 Moonbreons. Maybe there’s some middle ground to this, where some modern sets (Evolving Skies) go bananas while others (Vivid Voltage) don’t.
Nobody can predict the future, so we are all just making educated guesses based on past experience, personal biases, and risk appetite. Given my personal financial situation, I have always stayed away from high risk collecting/investing, which has led to me sticking mostly to vintage cards. Modern has always seemed too risky to me, especially as a larger scale investment. I have justified my collecting by saying that if everything went tits up tomorrow, I can sell every item in my collection for approximately what I paid for it and often much more. Frankly, I’ve always been able to make more money by grading raw vintage cards with PSA than buying modern sealed product.
Tl;dr: Will modern continue to go up? Probably yes. Is modern Pokemon the best way to invest right now? Probably no. If you want to start putting money in Pokemon, is modern Pokemon the lowest barrier to entry, easiest ROI thing you can do? Absolutely.
main issue with vintage is that you will get a psa 8 straight out of the pack most of the time. so people opening vintage get excited when they pull a “200k charizard” out of a pack they paid $6500 for when there is basically no chance of it getting a 10 doesn’t help that every box breaker will say their card is worth x where x is always the psa 10 price
compared to modern where you are almost guaranteed a 10 for most cards straight out of the pack
That´s my thought as well. That is the problem with hype. If the hype shifts then demand may drop. Modern seems like a dangerous market, but at the same time I have been thinking that for years and so far I´m wrong.
All modern will eventually become vintage, so this is one of those questions that will always persist as time moves on, and one that nobody can have a definitive answer for since nobody knows the future of financial performance. At any given moment in the future we’ll have an era that’s considered to be vintage, and an era considered to be modern.
If the conversation was purely in terms of collecting preference, I think smpratte answered it! But, if you want a little more expansion or philosophising on the topic, then you can look to the fundamental virtues that make collectables attractive. Aside from rarity and condition, age plays a significant role in the value of an item, so naturally the older current modern set releases become, the more history of the TCG they carry with them and the more inherent value they acquire.
Although any kind of rarity is nearly impossible for modern (apart from trophy cards), the scarcity of certain cards will increase as they age which will increase both their monetary value and collectable desirability. One thing that’s changed massively since 2020 is the rate at which attention shifts, which has been spurred on by stonk-hunters, the s-tier releases TPC has been churning out, and the sheer number of people that have joined the TCG space. This has created an environment in which the desirability of modern cards undulates incredibly quickly, and the rate at which cards become scarce (or at least, perceived to be scarce) is accelerated. In other words, from a collector’s perspective, the hobby has turned into an ADHD nightmare rife with too many good choices to make and a shortened window of time to make them in before the average Joe collector is priced out of the most desirable cards.
doesn’t help that every box breaker will say their card is worth x where x is always the psa 10 price 