What do you think will be the most sought after modern set in ten-fifteen years? (Sealed product).
Since this isn´t about current prices or investment I listed it under ´general´. Just a fun discussion about what set you think is going to be a chase.
When talking about modern, I am talking about Sun & Moon - Scarlet & Violet. I know some people consider XY to be modern, but the fact is that some XY sets are already over ten years old. I can´t see that as modern anymore.
Lastly, Team Up is in a league of it´s own, being already at 3K (I´m guessing due to a (much) lower print). Feel free to name it, but if naming Team Up it would be adding to the discussion if a second set is named.
So, I´m gonna do a wild guess here. Celestial Storm.
It is growing kind of fast, and it is a proper Rayquaza set. It also seems to be kind of short printed. It isn´t the strongest set when looking at the cards but if, at some point, Rainbow Rares start to become popular then it get´s a real chase-card too. Something about it just feels rare in comparison to other sets.
Evolving Skies is the only set in those eras that continues to be tunnel vision’ed on, so just that. Fusion Strike #2, Lost Origin #3 and Silver Tempest #4
I think 10 years is a long enough time to see more organic factors come into play rather than just what we see stonking in a shorter timeframe. In other words, people will weed-out the finer details of what makes the set valuable (whether that’s God-tier art such as Giratina V #186, or set cohesion) and market availability of each set will be slightly more optimised. Modern sets will never have the same fundamentals as vintage, so there’ll be more weighting towards certain factors such as collectability (151), art and the perceived impact the set had on TCG culture (Evolving Skies, Hidden Fates). There will probably be less weighting on how old the set is. There may also be other more niche factors at play, such as the introduction of a specific style or subset of cards, like we saw with the introduction of character rares in Dream League.
All the guff aside, I’d probably gamble on a safe bet like Evolving Skies. Then again there’s also Lost Origin, or even a curveball like Crown Zenith due to the sheer collectability. H2 SV sets are turning out to be much better than what we’ve seen so far in H1, so I wouldn’t be surprised if 151 took the lead, and I’m excited to see what they do with Team Rocket. Sod it, I’ll just say Evolving Skies lol.
It’ll probably just be whatever sets have the highest value chase card. Overall set cohesion or relative print runs will be irrelevant. Looking back to previous eras we can see some stuff (and take this info as you will, a lot is generalized opinion based on studying trends and pops since we didn’t get formal print runs):
Deoxys is the highest value ex set and is a generally bad set. It has the single highest priced chase card of chase cards. So the rest is irrelevant and people still buy sealed to open
Neo destiny unlimited is generally considered to be a shorter print than destiny 1st Ed. But obviously the price will never reflect this.
Early WOTC like unlimited base - team rocket has more supply than any of us can comprehend and it’s irrelevant because the nostalgic and historic significance to essentially the entire collector base is massive.
And lastly, D&P era sets which came out in the USA recession around '08 are coupled with bad print quality and generally low prints. The 10s go for obscene money but look to any other grade and you see a steep steep drop off.
Like I said people can take this generalized info and try to apply it to modern. I certainly do,and yet I’m wrong a lot with modern. All these lessons can teach us some stuff but it’ll never be enough to predict modern. My strategy for modern has been quite simple and effective - get as much of it as I can for as little as I can. Try to limit the sets I buy to sets that I personally wouldn’t mind holding or opening if the tides change, and that builds in a little bit of tolerance to the risk. It’s still risky and I’d rather own anything vintage longer term. But that doesn’t mean I shouldnt buy some modern and let it double quickly to dump back into what I feel is safer. Also one last point is that many people probably feel the same way I feel about modern, with no real love for it, but relatively large amounts of it
Cosmic Eclipse for me. There are many cards in it that I believe will appeal to those getting back into the hobby later on as well as those that appeal to early gen collectors as well.
N and Lillie are iconic characters in gen 5 and 7 and these cards are just fantastic so I can see them being big chases later on.
ADP, Blastoise and Piplup ,and many of the supporter cards also scratch the itch of long time fans and collectors not to even mention a few Charizard’s being in the set. Venusaur isn’t forgetten either the whole Kanto Trio is here!
Lol, in reality it may not even be from the current (i.e. within the last 5 years) modern era. There may be an outstanding release within the next few years that blows anything we’ve seen from SWSH or SV out of the water. There are so many things that can influence desirability and price, particularly on a 10 year timescale, that most guesses will probably be wrong anyway!
I think there are quite some sets that definitely will not be the ´big´ sets, but any set named here has the potential, although Celestial Storm is obviously a long shot.
Just inhale a lethal dose of carbon monoxide to better understand what goes on inside the heads of brain-dead r/pokeinvesting bros.
Jokes aside, modern set popularity defies conventional logic. Older, rarer, minter, better takes a backseat to hype and demand. I just do a quick search to see what’s the most popular set that I can get for the lowest price and turn my brain off.
So the most valuable modern set within the specified timeframe will likely just be whichever one has the most expensive chase card and influencer hype.
Honestly its a toss up, and no one will ever truly know until it happens. Me and my wife loved the new games, but anytime I mention ogrepon, or something obscure like Naclstack people are always spouting something about evolving skies, or how awesome charizard is. My point is that no one listens to the children like my little cousins love for Charlos, or how awesome Cass is. To stay on topic though Im personally just gonna say all of them will be just as popular. I cant decide which I enjoy the most. Im enjoying reading the responses though.
This was my third choice (after Celestial Storm and Unbroken Bonds). Tag Team sets in general would be a good choice I think if printnumbers are going to be a factor. I think they will be at some point.
I don´t know. Something tells me that Evolving Skies will not be a 2/3K box within the same period that some of these other sets will. I don´t trust that amount of hype. But, it may prove me wrong.
