Hello E4,
For those of you who don’t know me, I’m a new member to the E4 discord (known as compressor or NightShadowJ). This is my first post, so please let me know if there are any issues and I’ll work to rectify them!
I’m working to determine the estimated new price of a '95 Japanese Topsun Holofoil Checkered Pattern Prism Pikachu PSA 10. A shattered glass pattern (which I think is rarer/more desirable) sold for $15k on PWCC October 27th.
There are several up on eBay right now that are BGS graded with lower grades - the seller is TCA_Gaming. The BGS 7 is asking $2k, the BGS 8 is asking $3k. Both of the cards listed are checkered pattern.
Here is the pop report, for reference. There’s only fourteen PSA 10’s. Of those, we don’t know the approximate numbers of checkered vs. block vs shattered glass holofoil prism patterns.
Here is the E4 thread on the holofoil patterns for this card.
Absolutely amazing job on your first post. This is how it’s supposed to be done with real due diligence. 2. I have no idea. Maybe @thecharizardauthorty can provide a little more insight cause I know he has graded a bunch?
I feel like $15K for the pikachu is within reason, and I think that would be the case regardless of the pattern. Perhaps as the market optimizes there will be a definite difference in price between patterns, but how big that gap could grow idk. If the shattered pattern turns out to have only 2 PSA 10 examples in existence how would we even come to know that info? I mean we could investigate but I think it comes down more to desirability than rarity because they are all so very rare to begin with. I might even personally (if I had the money/desire to buy) want to pay maybe about a 15% premium for the shattered pattern over the checkered pattern if both were available, because it does look cooler imo. But how much more someone else would be willing to pay I’m not sure, time will tell. I didn’t even think to analyze the varying rarities between patterns before, so I guess I’ll try and keep a look out now to get a feel for it.
Where the price of these holos go from here and how fast is simply guesswork though. But I wouldn’t expect much of a price drop if any. Consider the price gap between Topsun Holos and the Carddass 96-97 holos; Topsun holos seem to have more desirability and definitely have more scarcity. I see it in the raw market as well, even with the non holos and no numbers. There are a lot more eyeballs on topsun, and there is a lot more competition. That isn’t going to just stop occurring, if anything more people are noticing them every day, and they are slowly but steadily moving from being considered niche to just being considered rare high end cards that people wish they could afford.
This one you linked which sold on the 12th was actually a weak block prism psa 10 not a cracked ice prism like the 15k pwcc one. This Block prism would very likely not get a 10 if graded today due to the back centering and surface. This is probably why he struggled to sell it for abit.
