Prices plummeting!? A look at the data (Shadowless holos)

Market
1

This has to do with all the recent discussion of prices dropping and markets showing a downward trend, specifically with Shadowless since that is my favorite set and the one I pay most attention to. It’s no secret I have a sizable graded Shadowless holo collection and because I want to have long term historical data regarding market prices, I decided to start manually recording every PSA 9 and 10 Shadowless holo sale I could find or verify from Ebay and private sales. I started several months ago and used the Ebay sold history in addition to a third party site to look back in time past the three month window Ebay shows. The dates for older listings may be off by one day and the sold prices on old best offer listings isn’t available but other than that I am confident this data is accurate. I also recorded the certification number of the card if it was visible on the listing.
Ideas to note:
-There are many other factors that can contribute to a card’s value beyond a grade so it’s important to keep that in mind when using numbers to make conclusions about a market.
-I might have skin in the game but the majority of my collection was purchased at prices far below today’s pricing and because I’m still adding to it, lower prices does nothing but benefit my wallet at this time.
-I will not post my entire sheet but if you are curious about a particular card at a specific period of time, I can post some sales if requested.

Here’s my data on the four cards that were auctioned off today and discussed on the giant auction thread. I’ll tag some of the folks who chimed in as they might find this interesting.
@justinmew
@sgbased
@gottaketchumall
@chris350dx

Gyarados Shadowless PSA 10
19815854 - 06/24/12 - 134.99

20804744 - 11/07/16 - 450

23012983 - 02/05/17 - 295

23303869 - 03/18/17 - 359.99

17996288 - 05/02/17 - 335.71

20804744 - 05/16/17 - 370

27505285 - 07/28/17 - 999.95

26954435 - 08/25/17 - 880

28196074 - 11/29/17 - 1425

28386743 - 03/11/18 - 685

Currently five others listed on Ebay.

Hitmonchan Shadowless PSA 10

15245775 - 05/13/16 - 149.9

26446921 - 11/14/16 - 179.88

21616294 - 02/11/17 - 299.95

17996290 - 05/02/17 - 335.71

27474593 - 06/24/17 - 525

27509210 - 07/27/17 - 500

21157579 - 11/26/17 - 910.57

15869383 - 02/28/18 - 999.99

19405427 - 03/11/18 - 835

Currently one other listed on Ebay.

Magneton Shadowless PSA 10
14926256 - 09/16/14 - 149.9

18564734 - 05/19/16 - 179.95

26299418 - 09/23/16 - 149.99

16445852 - 10/19/16 - 163.5

16445852 - 02/02/17 - 160.5

20607949 - 05/02/17 - 335.71

20607949 - 05/06/17 - 329.99

20692156 - 10/11/17 - 950

28564082 - 01/28/18 - 836.11

27765175 - 03/11/18 - 660

Currently three others listed on Ebay.

Poliwrath Shadowless PSA 10
25787626 - 09/01/16 - 182.5

23303876 - 03/18/17 - 439.99

27402625 - 08/31/17 - 700

27931955 - 11/09/17 - 1188

25723416 - 03/11/18 - 611

Currently three others listed on Ebay.

11 Likes
2

How much has Chansey dropped?

3

Good work. Very interesting.
I’d be curious about the Charizard’s 9 and 10.

4

I’m not sure there are enough data points to jump to conclusions just yet

5

It hasn’t.
At least seven sales of 9’s at $400++
Two sales of PSA 10 at $4k+

6

The title was a bit click-baity. I haven’t come to any conclusions. This is meant more for observation. I would argue however, that PSA 9’s do carry enough data to draw conclusions. Also, data on each card is respective to its population. There can only be so many data points for low pop cards so they do carry more weight.

7

I’ll have to charge you one PSA 9 Shadowless Charizard for that information sir. Look, prices are falling at free fall speed and it’s the cost of doing business, you understand.
But seriously, I hate to even share this as I still need a damn 10 but here are the 10’s I know of:

Charizard Shadowless PSA 10
14346771 - 07/12/09 - 108

1xxx4737 - 12/28/11 - 350

20633397 - 12/24/12 - 1500

20633397 - 03/03/13 - 1800

20879454 - 03/28/13 - 485

14237969 - 11/10/13 - 1300

20633397 - 10/14/14 - 1000

20633397 - 01/11/16 - 1999.99

17288502 - 04/09/16 - 3499.99

20061448 - 08/20/16 - 3075

26338081 - 01/03/17 - 3499.99OBO

27393537 - 05/29/17 - 4999.99OBO

27390131 - 06/02/17 - 5600
:angry:

27556950 - 08/28/17 - 11433.33
:sob:

28280943 - 11/11/17 - 16446 :dizzy_face:

Charizard Shadowless PSA 9
For the 9’s there’s over 130 public sales with the peak being 2800 and the low being 42.
Only three public sales past $2000 [to my knowledge.] Scott mentioned selling two at over $2000 but I only have one listed here.
2018 January to March:
23761033 - 01/01/18 - 1681.6

28286453 - 01/11/18 - 1550

28585466 - 01/14/18 - 1750

20290586 - 01/16/18 - 1400

1493282 - 01/17/18 - 1585.54

27608157 - 01/21/18 - 1250

23312189 - 02/01/18 - 1848.32

28365913 - 02/06/18 - 1550

23364802 - 02/07/18 - 2500

28114531 - 02/12/18 - 1550

27819366 - 02/25/18 - 1826

28997358 - 03/07/18 - 1900

28982855 - 03/11/18 - 1450

2017 January to March:
26471961 - 01/04/17 - 395

26584523 - 01/15/17 - 450

25929338 - 01/15/17 - 539.99

26643174 - 01/17/17 - 476

26578133 - 01/21/17 - 392.5

26508547 - 02/04/17 - 355

25941250 - 03/02/17 - 331.67

26718708 - 03/03/17 - 402

26702059 - 03/08/17 - 485

26780086 - 03/24/17 - 475

26972963 - 03/25/17 - 500OBO

26361479 - 03/27/17 - 400

26607088 - 03/28/17 - 381

4 Likes
8

Very interesting info.

I don’t recall seeing 4-5 listings of Shadowless 10s at once before. A couple examples you gave are also theme deck cards so they’re not exactly scarce like some of the other holos. No one’s denying most of the market is in a downwards trend, but it’s nice to see data that shows everything is pretty much up overall.

The 9s are actually doing fine too. I don’t think it’s just a case of weak 10s vs strong 9s and whatnot, but people aren’t stupid either. If you could buy x card for $200 and the PSA 10 version is either nowhere to be found or it’s 10-15x the PSA 9 price, it’s a no brainer for collectors like me.

I would have expected Charizard to stay above $2,000 but I’m not complaining. It will allow me to perhaps buy a few more. :blush:

1 Like
9

I would like to add that the recent shadowless were sold via gsp, hence international buyers like myself avoided it due to taxes.

They would have gone higher without gsp for sure

1 Like
10

The person who sold that shadowless zard for $108

3 Likes
11

Thanks for doing all the legwork!

12

I bought a few psa 9s a few years ago, if i put the cert codes here would you be able to tell me any info you have? :grin: i forgot what i paid for them. :grin:

13

Someone offered me a chansey 9 at $150 as I didn’t respond to them yesterday

14

Bruh I’ve been looking for a chansey 9 for 200 where it at

1 Like
15

Awesome work! I also have spread sheets like this but mostly for 1st ed base so to see this data on shadowless is much appreciated! I was just disappointed in the auctions last night as I did know the previous sale price of some right before that auction so some of them were almost half the price but hey thats collectibles for you.

1 Like
16

The big picture still shows these prices are/have increased. While there has been adjustments or whatever word you want to use in the short run, the long run still shows prices trending upward imo.

4 Likes
17

Dreams don’t count sleepy head.

18

Australia :sob:

So it would have been closer to $120 USD
I’m actually that lazy.

Last month I could have got a shadowless 9 Blastoise for $330 AUD and I didn’t take it because he wouldn’t give me $300… I need to stop.

19

lol I used to be that way. I passed on like 4 Shadowless 9 Raichus over something like $20-40 and then I ended up buying one for $350 which is almost double what I intended on paying.

Chansey any dollar amount under $400 USD buy buy buy.

20

I honestly had no idea chansey was that much.

I assumed any shadowless 9 which wasn’t the starter trio were $100ish lmao.