*Updated May 15th, 2020*
Very few PSA 10 1st edition Base Set holos have been added to the population in the last couple of years. Here are some numbers.
Alakazam: 81 in December 2018 → 83 today (+2 in 17 months)
Blastoise: 95 in December 2018 → 97 today (+2 in 17 months)
Chansey: 46 in August 2018 → 46 today (unchanged in 21 months)
Charizard: 118 in April 2018 → 120 today (+2 in 25 months)
Clefairy: 61 in October 2018 → 64 today (+3 in 19 months)
Gyarados: 78 in December 2018 → 84 today (+7 in 17 months)
Hitmonchan: 52 in August 2018 → 54 today (+2 in 21 months)
Machamp: 315 in December 2018 → 335 today (+20 in 17 months)
Magneton: 61 in August 2018 → 64 today (+3 in 21 months)
Mewtwo: 79 in December 2018 → 79 today (unchanged in 17 months)
Nidoking: 88 in December 2018 → 91 today (+3 in 17 months)
Ninetales: 63 in December 2018 → 66 today (+3 in 17 months)
Poliwrath: 95 in December 2018 → 96 today (+1 in 17 months)
Raichu: 85 in December 2018 → 87 today (+2 in 17 months)
Venusaur: 127 in December 2018 → 132 today (+5 in 17 months)
Zapdos: 116 in December 2018 → 123 today (+8 in 17 months)
Average growth per holo per 12 months(not counting Machamp): +1.8
Other than Gyarados, Venusaur, and Zapdos (and Machamp who doesn’t really count), no PSA 10 1st edition base set holo has grown by a population of more than 3 since 2018.
With 1st edition base set boxes soaring in price (not to mention almost never being on the market in the first place) and the raw population of gem mint 1st edition base set holos just lying around being basically drained at this point, it’s unsurprising that the pop report for these cards is now growing so slowly.
Do you guys think this trend will continue? What do you think it means for the future of base set?
Supply v Demand = Prices will rise steadily. Mostly leading to improved demand for non-1st edition/non-PSA 10 cards.
I’d be interested to know (even though it’s impossible, unless we have a Herod the Great cenus for PSA cards) whether any cards have since been destroyed or lost lowering figures.
What’s interesting though is that some of the common card population has been going up though. I can almost guarantee that very few packs are being opened because it’s basically always unprofitable to do so. The packs and boxes are such a sought after collectible in themselves that the premium added to buying them means if you’re not pulling a psa 10 holo from the pack you’re losing money (unless you pull one of the big 3 in psa 9). However, when the packs do get opened, we know that the holos have a greater chance of grading a 9 over a 10. Of course, it’s much easier for the commons and uncommons to grade a 10 and it’s more likely that if someone has 1st ed base lying around waiting to be graded that it’s going to be the non holos so it makes sense that those numbers still have gone up a little bit. I haven’t looked at the psa 9 holo pop report movement but I know that’s going to be misleading anyways due to people cracking and resubmitting the same card. People, if you crack your cards please send the labels back in, you’re just devaluing you’re own card by not doing so! Oh, and I just added a psa 10 zapdos to the report in my last sub Wish it was one of the low pop ones but I’ll certainly still take it.
No in all seriousness it can only be healthy in terms of growth of base set. 10s will continue to rise in value and then the lower grades will follow suit as people are priced out of the market for the gem mint grades.
I don’t see many people being ballsy enough to crack a 1st edition base box or even open many packs at this stage considering the prices of them so it’s unlikely we will have a huge rise in population. And even pack fresh cards often don’t make the 10 grade.
While it might not affect Base Set, I think a correction is coming. A lot of sealed boxes, booster packs, and graded cards seem to be out of sync with each other.
As people start hoarding/collecting them and not letting them go i see PSA10 Gems going up heavy in price. The boom has yet to touch PSA9’s, those are going to raise a ton during 2020 considering this fact: Not too many people can afford a 10 set; 10’s are not available.
People will decide/get ‘‘forced’’ to go for 9’s 1st Ed Base Set holos.
The basic reason for this is that until the last few years, very few people gave much consideration to grading the majority of the non-holos. So originally you had more holos that were being graded as 10s than non-holos, even though holos are more difficult to grade as 10s fresh out of the pack.
But in the last few, people realized that all of these cards have great value, so now it’s a no-brainer to grade any mint, 1st edition base set card.
So in comparison to the non-holos, the holos:
were already being graded in the first place (almost no mint holos just lying around anymore, unlike non-holos)
are inherently rarer (each holo is half as rare as non-holo rares, which in turn are rarer than uncommons and commons, obviously)
are much more difficult to grade as 10s straight out of the pack compared to non-holos
Going back to 2016 in this forum, I said it made no sense for something like a Lass to be going for the same price that a card like Poliwrath is going for, because over time PSA 10 1st edition non-holos would become more and more available compared to the holos. That theory has been borne out.
I would expect less availability and an increased price to result from this. However, less popular holos are readily available and reasonably priced. Nidoking has 4 copies on eBay under $2k.
I’ve thought there are probably around 60 individuals going after/holding these cards. You can see that holos with pop below 60 have a premium and aren’t available. Less popular pokemon with pop 70-100 have no premium and are available. Now that the pop growth has slowed, it will be interesting to see if more collectors chase the set and remove these cards from the market.
@enlightenedbulbasaur exactly, like I said if ppl are going to have 1st ed base laying around with their bulk or in binders and whatnot it’s much more likely to be the non holos and any card from that set holds value so basically any near mint or better card is being sent off to be graded.
To all the people thinking prices will increase (>25%) why do think it will?
There’s been very little to no growth in prices until very recently so why do you think now prices will increase after 2 years? What makes it different to last year when the pop also increased by 2 or 3?
I think there is also another wave of collectors coming into 1st ed Base Set after the “Pokemon Go Hype”. I think there is a population of those who had interest around GO and dropped out. Only now to come back realizing that the prices they thought as temporary, being real. Essentially playing off the hype around 2016 to be that of a market bubble instead of a market flood of collectors like it turned out to be.
By the way, in regards to non-holos - those have also had a pretty dramatic slow-down in population growth.
I literally just looked at one example, Beedrill. I recall the PSA 10 1st edition Beedrill population being in the 30s prior to the Pokemon Go boom.But since December 2018, the population of that card has only gone up by 6 (106 → 112). This indicates a huge slow-down across the board, not *just* with the holos.
I am getting all of this population data from pokemonprice.com, by the way. The data on there goes back to September 2017.
Wish it was one of the low pop ones but I’ll certainly still take it.