I am just getting back into collecting, specifically Base through Destiny, and as I am reading up on the investment side of Pokemon TCG Collecting I have had one question go somewhat unanswered: Which PSA grade has the most potential for growth in the market? A tall order, perhaps even unanswerable. Still, it seems that PSA 8, 9, and 10 are where “serious” collectors spend their time and money. I’m by no means an expert in economics, but I assume this would drive down the prices of PSA 5, 6, and 7, in the short term at least.
Clearly, PSA 8 - 10 will always be the most expensive, but the people who desire those top tier cards will spend just about anything on those cards. But your average collector most likely doesn’t have the resources to do the same. And since there are more and more people collecting I’d assume PSA 5 - 7 could see a larger amount of growth in the years to come relative to where their prices are currently.
I think the answer is really dependent on which cards we are talking about. My answer would be very different if we were talking about 1st ed base vs base set 2 vs Japanese neo destiny vs modern rainbow rare cards.
This is just my opinion, but I think PSA 7 is the best way to invest for the future growth in this hobby. All PSA 10’s will become scarce and out of reach for the average collector in a few years. The 8-9’s will follow suit. This leaves the PSA 7’s, still an excellent card to have, affordable now, and will increase in value gradually over time. Making it more desirable for the average collector. Most people would be more than happy to own a copy of a PSA 7 1st edition Charizard.
If we’re talking about english WOTC cards, I have a hard time believing 7s will ever take off outside something like 1st ed base or shining cards. It’ll take a massive increase in demand to even see 8s start rising just because there are so many 9s and 10s (1st ed holos, specifically) already graded and available.
Even if 8s begin to increase in desirability, you need to remember that the population is not static. Currently (again outside of 1st ed base and shinings) an 8 is basically a loss. Even a 9 for many cards is almost not worth the grading fee (case in point, check out this card I won today: www.ebay.com/itm/PSA-9-MINT-LT-Surge-17-132-1st-Edition-Gym-Heroes-Pokemon/202320057039 ). So for many cards, it’s not worth grading something that doesn’t have a shot at a 10. If you see 8s starting to pick up and become profitable, the latent supply of nm cards sitting out there will begin to get graded. Will there be enough people collecting 8s to cause this future supply to run dry too?
So basically, it’s gonna take a huge amount of demand for every PSA 8-10 card already graded or will be graded to run dry and I just don’t see it happening for these sets with print numbers speculated to be in the millions. Although to be fair, if you’re buying 7s at $5 a piece and they increase to $10, you’ve doubled your value. But if you’re buying $5 7s now and you expect them to grow to hundreds of dollars, I think you’ll end up disappointed.
If you’re going to speculate on lower grades, here’s an example of how I would do it. Take a look at the 1st ed Jungle Flareon sales: pokemonprice.com/CardDetails/2f65dc73-6526-4880-9c18-836885388e3b
Just roughly estimating, you’re looking at about $250 for a 10, $50 for a 9, $35 for an 8 and maybe $28 for a 7. That means with $250, you could buy one PSA 10, 5 PSA 9s, 7.1 PSA 8s or 8.9 PSA 7s. The price difference is massive between 9s and 10s (5x difference) and almost negligible between 7s and 8s (1.25x difference). 9s are also a less risky speculation since you only have to bet on the supply of 10s running dry. Personally I would chose 9s or 8s for this card.
Anyway. tldr: I don’t see the supply for most cards running dry to the point where 7s become valuable. Look at the relative cost between grades when you’re speculating on lower grades.
Man that Lt surge card was a bargain!! I still find it amazing that the 1st edition gym sets in psa 9 go so cheap! Two of the oldest WOTC sets with great artworks!!
When you factor in the cost of grading + shipping and ebay fees, it’s baffling to me how cheap you can still get a lot of cards in 9. If you’re patient and you pay attention to auctions, the deals are out there
Great pickups! Sometimes I wish I lived in the US for these deals! The postage to the UK soon adds up even on deals like these! Need to buy a bunch at once to save on shipping.
This made me think of the nature of each grade. Collectors occupy a different space from filppers. The question is who occupies where, generally, and can we use past trends to predict how this might change in the future.
And for the record, I had WOTC cards in mind when writing this thread since they carry the most nostalgia for those who can afford to be in the hobby. Well, sometimes afford
EDIT: And what about the wild west of ungraded cards? How do they compare to say a PSA 7 as an investment?
Definitely agree with this, particularly when it comes to higher end cards like Gold Stars, Shinings, and first edition Base. Many collectors, even the pickier ones, will happily settle for an an 8 when 9’s and 10’s climb way out of reach.
here is another perspective: PSA 7 or below, I almost just want a raw card, because the supply is so great. people get PSA grades typically only for minter cards. also, mass produced cards will probably see very little market appreciation for 7 or lower, because there are tons of NM or LP cards out there, there’s no need to go purchase lower than a 7. PSA 7 or lower would only carry weight for cards with VERY limited release, where owning the card itself is actually difficult. look at baseball cards such as the Honus Wagner, people pay for PSA 4 or 5 because it is difficult to obtain the card. so the rarity outweighs the grade in that case. but for mass-produced pokemon cards, rarity isn’t too big of an issue if you are looking for above PSA 7, which is why the pop report and pricing for those cards do not have an established market, because there is no such demand in existence. I would be willing to bet that such a market will probably never be established either, outside of 1st edition.
I find it baffling that people are speculating 8s and lower. Even 9 doesn’t make sense to me, the only speculation I can see is people thinking that the 10s price range is too high?
Let’s think about this for a moment, if a 10 is too expensive people go to the lower grade 9, if the 9 has more attention that would naturally mean the 9s price point goes up. Then the 9s price point would get to high, resulting in the 8s price point to be the next logical attainable goal. Now think about that; the 9s price point is depent on the 10s, the 8s dependent on the 9s, etc. So why would we specualte one to increase at a higher rate vs the one that the grade is dependent on?
Additionally, let’s imagine the 8s price point doubles. What does that mean for the 9? Does that mean the 9 does the more desirable grade just stay at double it’s price point, or would its higher desirablility mean more people would justify spending a bit more for it? Let’s use PFM’s numbers ‘$250 for a 10, $50 for a 9, $35 for an 8’. Now let’s double the 8, $70 how much would someone spend on a 9 now, to match the growth of the 8 it would be $100. Quite frankly, I’m not buying an 8 if it’s that close to a 9. Which would mean the 9 probably increased more than $100 if the 8 is at $70. Let’s do it for the 9. $100 for the 9, vs $500 for the 10, those numbers look a bit better and I could see it matching the growth potential.
Now, if someone can convince me that pokemon is only attractive to low income individuals, I’d be more inclinde to believe that the lower value cards would increase in value faster. There’s no evidence that only low income individuals are attracted to the hobby. So, there’s no reason to believe that the 10s price point will be out of everyones reach, or that they won’t be ‘sellable’ to someone.
This brings me to the most natural reasoning for answering this question, the bases of our economy. The higher the deamand for an item is the more it sells for, the lower the supply the item the more it sells for. Which grade is the most likely to achieve both?
I would think 8 and 9 cause those seem pricey with most sets that are considered pretty “rare” or even in limited promos. But do we really think enough people are gonna enter the hobby for PSA 7 to see viable gains? That’d be pretty neat but I feel like I’ll be an old grandpa by then.
Here’s my best argument for speculating on lower grades: diversity.
I can go out and buy a PSA 10 1st ed Neo Discovery Yanma OR I can go and buy a complete Neo Discovery set in 9 and probably most if not all of a Neo Revelation set in PSA 9 for approximately the same amount. Which is the riskier option?
The discussion is on growth potential not risk management. If you’re going to bundle a bunch of cards you’re making the growth more stagnant but less likely to fail. If you have a riskier investment you’re banking on higher growth but higher risk of failure. So, you’re asking the wrong question in the context of the discussion. Which one has more growth potential; PSA 10 1st ed Neo Discovery Yanma or Neo Discovery set in 9 and a Neo Revelation set in PSA 9. I’d speculate the Yanma has the higher growth potential.
