I was looking through some pop reports today and I couldnt help notice a weird trend on the population of cards alongside there values on the market. For example 1st ed base compated to shadowless had overall higher pop counts. The japanses gold stars ranges alot from unlimited to 1st ed eg. 1st ed JP gs zard pop count of 31 but then the unlimited is signifacantly lower. These are just a couplr of examples I came across just seems weird how a less rare item has a lower pop than a rarer item even when its the same card just a different release. Im mainly talking about 10s grades just seem inconsistant.
Back to the shadowless base set if the 10s have lower pops than the 1st ed 10s surely it means the shadowless are more rare harder to come by/more valuable? I swear the only reason 1st ed is consodered rarer is because of its initial release being the 1st print run but actually now the shadowless are rarer at least with grades 10, which is what most people ae trying to get there hands on.
Anyone have any info on how pop counts work in terms of how rare the card is combined with their market value
Unlimited cards don’t get graded as much due to their lower value, shadowless very well may be rarer than 1st edition, but rarity is only one factor of many when considering what something is worth
It should also be noted that some sets also have a higher rarity in unlimited than their 1st edition counterparts, however this is a minority and should not be applied to all cards obviously, that goes without saying.
Also supply and demand will play a factor in the price regardless of the pop count.
I don’t believe they gave Shadowless its own label for a while, so previously graded ones may have gone under unlimited, also like they don’t put thick/thin or grey stamps in title.
Every time you get more specific with a card, such as the stamp also for 1st edition, the market is more niche, also you have people who send them in not knowing the specifications, and you had people send them in before. Even then the true rarity doesn’t directly correlate to the price. There are cards where only 100 were ever printed, from Zoroark design contest, yet you could win them at auction PSA 10 for under $100 when they were released. Compare it to the new Artwork Design contest cards, those sold for hundreds of dollars off the bat. Partly to do with the more unique/better artwork, but also the release was each winner got all 100 copies, so they never had to sell/trade any, whereas with Zoroark the 10 winners got 10 complete sets.
There are a lot of factors that go into PSA pop. Value of the card graded/ungraded, print quality for a set, rarity of the card and set. Some cards are worth something at a lower grade like 7-8, where many others may even be worth more ungraded NM than PSA 8. Then you have sets where cards are printed badly, like Japanese Dragon Frontiers or English Plasma Storm, so there will be a small percentage of 10’s with many people hoping their 9’s make the cut, or even cracking to regrade. With older Japanese sets, its also interesting, because you have sets where unlimited seems rarer than 1st edition, so the pop will be low, but 1st ed prices will still be higher
Speaking of japanese Charizard gold star, people prefer 1st ed. copies for monetary reasons which is obvious.
However that’s not the whole story, both print runs have issues with centering but overall it seems unlimited is much worse than 1st ed. , locating gem mint worthy unlimited Charizard gold star is truly a feat so I don’t wonder PSA 10 population is currently sitting at 4.
People like @pokemonsyndicate can probably confirm this after emptying yahoo japan of gen 1-3 chase cards.
All you can know from the pop report is the exact number of that card that was given the grade you’re looking at. Here’s one example to show pop doesn’t show rarity: Nidorino Unlimited has 9 gem mint 10s, and Nidorino 1st edition has 103 gem mint 10s.
There might be more factors that I’m overlooking but I think you have to know that the demand for grading shadowless is/was exactly equal to the demand for grading 1st edition cards to conclude which card is more rare depending on its PSA pop.
People simply didn’t want to grade shadowless back then. 1st Ed were always a desireable grade. Plus, as someone mentioned above, 1st Ed were being graded since 1999. Shadowless weren’t designated till 2006 or so.
