[1.00] Background
So I’ve been trying to find the pull rates for modern sets and the information has been surprisingly hard to come by considering the internet is a thing. I’m sure many large purchasers/stores already have some semblance of an idea of what the rates are like, but I don’t think it’s really been widely shared because after all why would they be. It’s strange to me because I also dabble in collecting some other TCGs where pull rates are publicly stated by the publisher (cough Bushiroad cough) so I don’t understand the secrecy with Pokemon. Anyways, I digress…
[1.01] Changelog
2024-03-19: Clean up, added functional table of contents by @pfm
2021-03-10: Added Shining Fates data
2020-09-26: Added more Champion’s Path data
2020-09-18: Added preliminary Champion’s Path data
2020-09-16: Added Darkness Ablaze data
2020-07-18: Added Rebel Clash set data, updated rarity designations, fixed incorrect pull rate for some S&M sets
2020-02-13: Finalized Sword & Shield base set data
2020-01-23: Added preliminary Sword & Shield base set data
2019-12-21: Initial creation with the inclusion of all the Sun & Moon sets
[1.02] About the data
All data was collected via manually going through hundreds of booster opening videos on YouTube/Twitch and aggregating the results. For the most part, the sample sizes are statistically significant with the exception of special expansions sets like Detective Pikachu and Dragon Majesty.
I will be using the rarity convention that is officially designated by the Pokemon Company International. In this guide a "hit” is any rarity that is above a ★H (Holo Rare). Cards with these rarities will be considered “hits”:
Update: New rarity designations used by TPCi as of SW&SH:
★U = Ultra Rare
☆ = Holo Rare V
☆X = Holo Rare VMAX
★R = Rainbow Rare
★S = Secret Rare
Old rarity designations used in S&M series:
★U = rare Ultra
☆ = rare Holo GX
★P = rare Prism Star
★R = rare Rainbow
★S = rare Secret
★SH = rare Shiny
☆SH = rare Shiny GX
Consequently we will be excluding these cards:
● = common
◆ = uncommon
★ = rare
★H = rare Holo
Finally, please note that this data was only gathered from English booster openings. I’m not sure how generalizable these results are to cards printed in other languages. Anyways, without further ado!
[02.00] Sun & Moon era
[02.01] Sun & Moon Base Set
*(95% CI, n=7020)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.22% (±0.47%) | 1 in 23.72 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.82% (±0.39%) | 1 in 35.45 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.40% (±0.27%) | 1 in 71.63 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 11.15% (±0.74%) | 1 in 8.97 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.47% (±0.28%) | 1 in 68.16 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.81% (±0.21%) | 1 in 123.16 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.81% (±0.21%) | 1 in 123.16 | |
Hits | 17.65% (±0.89%) | 1 in 5.67 |
[02.02] Guardians Rising
*(95% CI, n=2088)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 3.59% (±0.80%) | 1 in 27.84 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.87% (±0.72%) | 1 in 34.80 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.72% (±0.36%) | 1 in 139.20 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 11.11% (±1.35%) | 1 in 9.00 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.29% (±0.48%) | 1 in 77.33 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.81% (±0.39%) | 1 in 122.82 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.81% (±0.39%) | 1 in 122.82 | |
Hits | 16.81% (±1.6%) | 1 in 5.95 |
[02.03] Burning Shadows
*(95% CI, n=2010)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 3.93% (±0.85%) | 1 in 25.44 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.69% (±0.71%) | 1 in 37.22 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.24% (±0.48%) | 1 in 80.40 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 10.95% (±1.37%) | 1 in 9.14 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.59% (±0.55%) | 1 in 62.81 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.95% (±0.42%) | 1 in 105.79 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.95% (±0.42%) | 1 in 105.79 | |
Hits | 17.41% (±1.66%) | 1 in 5.74 |
[02.04] Shining Legends
*(95% CI, n=1536)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 3.97% (±0.98%) | 1 in 25.18 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.80% (±0.83%) | 1 in 35.72 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.17% (±0.54%) | 1 in 85.33 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 11.85% (±1.62%) | 1 in 8.44 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.50% (±0.61%) | 1 in 66.78 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.91% (±0.48%) | 1 in 109.71 |
rare Secret - Pokemon (“Tube” Mewtwo) | 0.91% (±0.48%) | 1 in 109.71 | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy | N/A | N/A | |
★SH | rare Shiny | 8.72% (±1.41%) | 1 in 11.46 |
Hits | 26.95% (±2.22%) | 1 in 3.71 |
[02.05] Crimson Invasion
*(95% CI, n=1530)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.44% (±1.03%) | 1 in 22.50 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.27% (±0.89%) | 1 in 30.60 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.18% (±0.54%) | 1 in 85.00 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 8.30% (±1.38%) | 1 in 12.05 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.11% (±0.53%) | 1 in 90.00 |
★S | rare Secret | 1.11% (±0.53%) | 1 in 90.00 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 1.11% (±0.53%) | 1 in 90.00 | |
Hits | 14.97% (±1.79%) | 1 in 6.68 |
[02.06] Ultra Prism
*(95% CI, n=1674)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.30% (±0.97%) | 1 in 23.25 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.33% (±0.72%) | 1 in 42.92 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.97% (±0.67%) | 1 in 50.73 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 8.00% (±1.30%) | 1 in 12.49 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.49% (±0.58%) | 1 in 66.96 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.78% (±0.42%) | 1 in 128.77 |
rare Secret - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.18% (±0.20%) | 1 in 558.00 | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.60% (±0.37%) | 1 in 167.40 | |
★P | rare Prism Star | 8.72% (±1.35%) | 1 in 11.47 |
Hits | 23.30% (±2.03%) | 1 in 4.29 |
[02.07] Forbidden Light
*(95% CI, n=1264)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 3.56% (±1.02%) | 1 in 28.09 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.29% (±0.83%) | 1 in 43.59 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.27% (±0.62%) | 1 in 79.00 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 7.44% (±1.45%) | 1 in 13.45 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.34% (±0.64%) | 1 in 74.35 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.71% (±0.46%) | 1 in 140.44 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.71% (±0.46%) | 1 in 140.44 | |
★P | rare Prism Star | 7.91% (±1.49%) | 1 in 12.64 |
Hits | 20.97% (±2.24%) | 1 in 4.77 |
[02.08] Celestial Storm
*(95% CI, n=1480)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 3.78% (±0.97%) | 1 in 26.43 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.09% (±0.73%) | 1 in 47.74 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.69% (±0.66%) | 1 in 59.20 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 10.34% (±1.55%) | 1 in 9.67 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.22% (±0.56%) | 1 in 82.22 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.88% (±0.48%) | 1 in 113.85 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.88% (±0.48%) | 1 in 113.85 | |
★P | rare Prism Star | 5.47% (±1.16%) | 1 in 18.27 |
Hits | 21.69% (±2.10%) | 1 in 4.61 |
[02.09] Dragon Majesty
*(95% CI, n=389)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 6.94% (±2.53%) | 1 in 14.41 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.08% (±1.72%) | 1 in 32.42 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 3.86% (±1.92%) | 1 in 25.93 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 15.42% (±3.59%) | 1 in 6.48 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 2.31% (±1.50%) | 1 in 43.22 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.77% (±0.87%) | 1 in 129.67 |
rare Secret - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.26% (±0.50%) | 1 in 389.00 | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.51% (±0.71%) | 1 in 194.50 | |
★P | rare Prism Star | 10.8% (±3.09%) | 1 in 9.26 |
Hits | 36.25% (±4.78%) | 1 in 2.76 |
[02.10] Lost Thunder
*(95% CI, n=1274)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.40% (±1.13%) | 1 in 22.75 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.14% (±0.96%) | 1 in 31.85 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.26% (±0.61%) | 1 in 79.63 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 10.28% (±1.67%) | 1 in 9.73 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.33% (±0.63%) | 1 in 74.94 |
★S | rare Secret | 1.02% (±0.55%) | 1 in 98.00 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 1.02% (±0.55%) | 1 in 98.00 | |
★P | rare Prism Star | 12.17% (±1.80%) | 1 in 8.22 |
Hits | 29.20% (±2.50%) | 1 in 3.42 |
[02.11] Team Up
*(95% CI, n=872)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.82% (±1.42%) | 1 in 20.76 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.41% (±1.02%) | 1 in 41.52 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 2.41% (±1.02%) | 1 in 41.52 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 9.29% (±1.93%) | 1 in 10.77 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.03% (±0.67%) | 1 in 96.89 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.69% (±0.55%) | 1 in 145.33 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.69% (±0.55%) | 1 in 145.33 | |
★P | rare Prism Star | 5.96% (±1.57%) | 1 in 16.77 |
Hits | 21.79% (±2.74%) | 1 in 4.59 |
[02.12] Detective Pikachu
*(95% CI, n=240)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★H | rare Holo | 37.08% (±6.12%) | 1 in 2.70 |
rare Holo - Pokemon | 37.08% (±6.12%) | 1 in 2.70 | |
rare Holo - Trainer | N/A | N/A | |
Hits | 37.08% (±6.12%) | 1 in 2.70 |
[02.13] Unbroken Bonds
*(95% CI, n=3888)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.12% (±0.62%) | 1 in 24.30 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.11% (±0.55%) | 1 in 32.13 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.00% (±0.31%) | 1 in 99.69 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 9.88% (±0.94%) | 1 in 10.13 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.39% (±0.37%) | 1 in 72.00 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.90% (±0.30%) | 1 in 111.09 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.90% (±0.30%) | 1 in 111.09 | |
Hits | 16.28% (±1.16%) | 1 in 6.14 |
[02.14] Unified Minds
*(95% CI, n=3672)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.36% (±0.66%) | 1 in 22.95 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.19% (±0.57%) | 1 in 31.38 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.17% (±0.35%) | 1 in 85.40 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 12.72% (±1.08%) | 1 in 7.86 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.44% (±0.39%) | 1 in 69.28 |
★S | rare Secret | 0.90% (±0.31%) | 1 in 111.27 |
rare Secret - Pokemon | N/A | N/A | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.90% (±0.31%) | 1 in 111.27 | |
Hits | 19.42% (±1.28%) | 1 in 5.15 |
[02.15] Hidden Fates
*(95% CI, n=1580)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 4.87% (±1.06%) | 1 in 20.52 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 1.46% (±0.59%) | 1 in 68.70 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 3.42% (±0.90%) | 1 in 29.26 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 15.06% (±1.76%) | 1 in 6.64 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.71% (±0.64%) | 1 in 58.52 |
★S | rare Secret | 1.77% (±0.65%) | 1 in 56.43 |
rare Secret - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.76% (±0.43%) | 1 in 131.67 | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 1.01% (±0.49%) | 1 in 98.75 | |
★SH | rare Shiny | 21.20% (±2.02%) | 1 in 3.72 |
☆SH | rare Shiny GX | 10.19% (±1.49%) | 1 in 8.81 |
Hits | 54.81% (±2.45%) | 1 in 1.82 |
[02.16] Cosmic Eclipse
*(95% CI, n=3136)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | rare Ultra | 3.67% (±0.66%) | 1 in 27.27 |
rare Ultra - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.68% (±0.57%) | 1 in 37.33 | |
rare Ultra - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.99% (±0.35%) | 1 in 101.16 | |
☆ | rare Holo GX | 11.93% (±1.13%) | 1 in 8.39 |
★R | rare Rainbow | 1.50% (±0.43%) | 1 in 66.72 |
★S | rare Secret | 11.00% (±1.10%) | 1 in 9.09 |
rare Secret - Pokemon (Character) | 10.11% (±1.06%) | 1 in 9.89 | |
rare Secret - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.89% (±0.33%) | 1 in 112.00 | |
Hits | 28.09% (±1.57%) | 1 in 3.56 |
[03.00] Sword & Shield era
[03.01] Sword & Shield Base Set
*(95% CI, n=4628)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | Ultra Rare | 3.74% (±0.55%) | 1 in 26.75 |
Ultra Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.85% (±0.48%) | 1 in 35.06 | |
Ultra Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.89% (±0.27%) | 1 in 112.88 | |
☆ | Rare Holo V | 14.20% (±1.01%) | 1 in 7.04 |
☆X | Rare Holo VMAX | 2.20% (±0.42%) | 1 in 45.37 |
★R | Rainbow Rare | 1.23% (±0.32%) | 1 in 81.19 |
Rainbow Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 0.50% (±0.20%) | 1 in 201.22 | |
Rainbow Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.52% (±0.25%) | 1 in 136.12 | |
★S | Secret Rare | 0.91% (±0.27%) | 1 in 110.19 |
Secret Rare - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.39% (±0.18%) | 1 in 257.11 | |
Secret Rare - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.52% (±0.21%) | 1 in 192.83 | |
Hits | 22.28% (±1.20%) | 1 in 4.49 |
[03.02] Rebel Clash
*(95% CI, n=2736)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | Ultra Rare | 3.76% (±0.71%) | 1 in 26.56 |
Ultra Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.03% (±0.64%) | 1 in 32.96 | |
Ultra Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.73% (±0.32%) | 1 in 136.80 | |
☆ | Holo Rare V | 12.65% (±1.25%) | 1 in 7.91 |
☆X | Holo Rare VMAX | 3.40% (±0.68%) | 1 in 29.42 |
★R | Rainbow Rare | 1.50% (±0.46%) | 1 in 66.73 |
Rainbow Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 0.95% (±0.36%) | 1 in 105.23 | |
Rainbow Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.55% (±0.28%) | 1 in 182.40 | |
★S | Secret Rare | 0.95% (±0.36%) | 1 in 105.23 |
Secret Rare - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.33% (±0.21%) | 1 in 304.00 | |
Secret Rare - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.62% (±0.29%) | 1 in 160.94 | |
Hits | 22.26% (±1.56%) | 1 in 4.49 |
[03.03] Darkness Ablaze
*(95% CI, n=5040)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | Ultra Rare | 3.85% (±0.53%) | 1 in 25.98 |
Ultra Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 2.72% (±0.45%) | 1 in 36.79 | |
Ultra Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.13% (±0.29%) | 1 in 88.42 | |
☆ | Holo Rare V | 12.58% (±0.92%) | 1 in 7.95 |
☆X | Holo Rare VMAX | 3.85% (±0.53%) | 1 in 25.98 |
★R | Rainbow Rare | 1.19% (±0.30%) | 1 in 84.00 |
Rainbow Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 0.77% (±0.24%) | 1 in 129.23 | |
Rainbow Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.42% (±0.18%) | 1 in 240.00 | |
★S | Secret Rare | 0.87% (±0.26%) | 1 in 114.55 |
Secret Rare - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.38% (±0.17%) | 1 in 265.26 | |
Secret Rare - Trainer/Energy (Gold) | 0.50% (±0.19%) | 1 in 201.60 | |
Hits | 22.34% (±1.15%) | 1 in 4.48 |
[03.04] Champion’s Path
*(95% CI, n=3192)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | Ultra Rare | 5.39% (±0.78%) | 1 in 18.56 |
Ultra Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 3.76% (±0.66%) | 1 in 26.60 | |
Ultra Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 1.63% (±0.44%) | 1 in 61.38 | |
☆ | Holo Rare V | 15.73% (±1.26%) | 1 in 6.36 |
☆X | Holo Rare VMAX | 3.55% (±0.62%) | 1 in 29.83 |
★R | Rainbow Rare | 1.57% (±0.43%) | 1 in 63.84 |
Rainbow Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 0.88% (±0.32%) | 1 in 114.00 | |
Rainbow Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 0.69% (±0.29%) | 1 in 145.09 | |
★S | Secret Rare | 1.32% (±0.40%) | 1 in 76.00 |
Secret Rare - Pokemon (Shiny Charizard) | 0.44% (±0.23%) | 1 in 228.00 | |
Secret Rare - Trainer/Energy (Gold Bean Can) | 0.88% (±0.32%) | 1 in 114.00 | |
Hits | 27.35% (±1.55%) | 1 in 3.66 |
[03.05] Vivid Voltage
Soon™ ?
[03.06] Shining Fates
*(95% CI, n=2187)
Rarity | Pull % | # of Packs | |
---|---|---|---|
★U | Ultra Rare | 3.25% (±0.74%) | 1 in 30.80 |
Ultra Rare - Pokemon (Full Art) | 0.50% (±0.30%) | 1 in 198.82 | |
Ultra Rare - Trainer (Full Art) | 2.74% (±0.68%) | 1 in 36.45 | |
★A | Amazing Rare | 5.76% (±0.98%) | 1 in 17.36 |
☆ | Holo Rare V | 10.84% (±1.30%) | 1 in 9.23 |
☆X | Holo Rare VMAX | 5.44% (±0.95%) | 1 in 18.38 |
★R | Rainbow Rare | 1.19% (±0.45%) | 1 in 84.12 |
★S | Secret Rare - Pokemon (Gold) | 0.91% (±0.40%) | 1 in 109.35 |
★SH | Shiny Rare | 22.73% (±1.76%) | 1 in 4.40 |
☆SH | Shiny Rare V or VMAX | 8.96% (±1.20%) | 1 in 11.16 |
Hits | 59.08% (±2.06%) | 1 in 1.69 |