Relative growth of PSA 9 vs PSA 10

Hello, I was wondering about the relationship between PSA 10 and PSA 9 copies of the same card. I understand that there a lot of factors in play like the POP, but as a general rule does the PSA 9 to PSA 10 ratio stay the same as time goes on (Say a PSA 10 is 100 dollars in 2010 and the PSA 9 is 50 in 2010, then in 2020 the PSA 10 is 300, will the PSA 9 be 150?)? Or are they only related in the general sence as one rise so will the other and that the 9 cannot rise over the 10.

Sorry if this is confusing, I did I bad job explaining it. Basically, would it be better for me to sell 3 PSA 9 gold star Alakazams for one PSA 10 copy, or just keep the 3 9s? Thanks

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You are more likely to sell a PSA 10 at full market value than a PSA 9.

A PSA 9 is harder to move for Set Cards (including 1st ed) than a PSA 10 so people tend to put them on auction and sell them at “discount” comparing to “market value”…of course this is not always the rule, I’ve sold some PSA 9s at market.

Unless PSA 10s are gone from the market you won’t see much of an increase in the 9s price that it justifies you to keep the three 9s and sell the 10. Again, I don’t see set cards PSA 10 copies disappering from the market whatsoever.

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I think a more accurate answer to what your looking for is that card prices on PSA 9 vs their PSA 10 counterpart tend to stay somewhat connected. There are exceptions to every rule in the PSA game and no one can give you exactly what your looking for here but the general trend is that they stay somewhat connected. As the 10 price rises - so does the 9 price. A lot of that has to do with regradability… Look at the most significant card in Pokemon - the 1st Edition Charizard. It’s 9 copies hike in price every time the 10 price does. Now if the price is rising at the same rate percentage wise, that I don’t know but they are definitely connected. Hope that answer helps at all… Cheers!

PSA 10 prices really have nothing to do with 9s. Id have to disagree with the comment above. Example… when 1st ed base charizard 10 was 25k 9s were about 5-6k the 10 is now around 40k and 9s are still 5-6k. If a 10 rises in value its because of scarcity but when that 10 rises will the 9 rise? No. Why? Because the market is heavily flooded with them and in this day and age unfortunately everyone is just trying to undercut the next guy on Ebays price thus prices going down. That and the most amount of saturation we have seen in this hobby.

I’d guess mostly it stays consistent. There’s hundreds of exceptions though. Like Japanese cards. They are simple 10s so a 9 is actually unlucky. English Jungle too. Cause of the rough slivering causing blades 10s were tough to get and 9s piled up.

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In extremely general terms the 9 will react similarly to the 10. Proportionally? Sometimes but not always. There would certainly be a correlation between the two again in very general terms only.

You always have special cases like the base 1st zard listed above where the 10 outperformed while the 9 completely stagnated, but then on the other side you have the skyridge charizard where the 8 and 9 vastly outperformed. Similarly many non holo ( and even holo non-charizard ) base 1st cards in PSA 10 are some of the worst returns of any cards for the past year or two and the 9’s have held fairly steady or just lost a lot less.

I know this is a little off topic from the thread but what do you mean by worse returns? Did 1st ed. base 10s have a dip in prices?

This is definitely not true.

PSA 9s rise with PSA 10s of the same card because the PSA 10s are out of the price range of a lot of people.

For example, when PSA 10 Jungle Kangaskhan and PSA 10 Fossil Lapras went through the roof a year ago, the 9s also skyrocketed in price with them. Same goes for something like 1st Edition Base Set Wartortle.

If a PSA 10 card is too expensive, a PSA 9 is the next best thing, which is why the prices tend to coincide with one another.

You even see this with PSA 8 cards on some occasions.

I would say very generally that when a 10 sees a bump in the price, the 9 tends to also see a bump. But every card has it’s own dynamics. Consider the following:
-healthy increase in the value of oldback Fan Club PSA 9 promos when the 10s were increasing
-the 1st ed Charizard (mentioned a few times already but probably one of the worst cards to assume general trends from) back in 2017, both grades were rising in parallel but the 10 continues to rise and the 9 has stagnated probably due to differences in availability-extremely tough Neo 1st ed PSA 10s (Slowking, typhlosion, yanma) where the 10 is in the 4 figures but the 9s are ~$50-100 (although there does seem to be a small effect on the 9s since the 9s are more expensive compared to other cards in the set)-certain japanese newbacks that are so easy to grade, the 9s are almost worthless
Basically, it’s complicated and the answer will depend on the card we are talking about.

But I think people are losing focus of the main “goal” of investing money in something. It’s how much money you put in vs how much money you take out.
Imagine this. I have a PSA 10 card that increases in value from $100 to $400. Wow! $300! I made a killing!In the same timeframe Investment Joe bought ten PSA 9s of the same card at $10 each. The 9s went up to $60 each. That’s $500 profit.
With 9s, the price you buy in at is key. If you can get 9s at $15 and sell them at $30, you’re doubling your money. Whereas you’d have to sell a $500 PSA 10 at $1000 to see the same return. It’s all about relative differences. With the Alakazam, what’s more likely? The PSA 10 going from $550 to $1100 or the PSA 9 going from $200 to $400? If you’ve answered that, you’ve answered your question. You also need to consider that buying and selling doesn’t happen in an instant. It’s a lot more work (and ebay fees) to sell 3x 9s at market value than a single 10. If “investing” was the only factor here, I’d personally trade the 3x 9s for a 10.

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Yes most 1st edition base PSA 10’s did. Including a few holos. Mostly due to the fact that c/u/nhr cards were going for stupid prices due to their low pop. People perceived low pop as being something that would sustain however the high price made it so people started grading on cards that previously weren’t worth grading. Therefore an influx of new 10’s lowered the price. Many non holo rares were over $1k and now are a few hundred bucks mostly. Most commons/uncommons can be had at auction for under $50-$75 whereas too many clearly were $100+ last year. I expect them to eventually recover some from where they are now, but yeah they didn’t make sense at the prices they were and the market is efficient so corrected.

Play around over at Pokemonprice and the trends are obvious. And again this is one example from one set. Don’t try making a rule or an overarching trend out of it because every card and every set are different.

Sell your 3 alakazam 9s and buy a 10 imo.

Gold Star Alakazam isn’t that special of a card tbh. The 9s aren’t going anywhere.

blasphemer! Gold stars are the holy grail and the greatest cards on the face of the Earth, and one day I will have all of them.
JK

but for real, I am really tempted to upgrade them to one 10.