I think anyone who holds sealed product long enough (think ~20 years) will make some kind of profit. But conditions will be different in 20 years for modern, vs how they were in 2020 with WotC stuff. I don’t think the margins will be as large.
I’ve had similar thoughts and in addition I think you have some additional factors going against modern sealed compared to vintage:
Everyone is ‘in the know’ with regards to SWSH and many people have the same mindset of buying/storing sealed because of how it worked for WOTC. Compared to something like Skyridge in WOTC where very few would have stored sealed product away (or so far appears this way), but SWSH doesn’t really have anything like this.
SWSH may or may not have the same level of nostalgia in the future (although I still think they’re amazing cards, especially the Alt Arts).
Modern manufacturing has far more consistent card quality than WOTC. People have been sending cards straight from the pack to grading. There will have to be significant demand in the future to ever run out of very good conditioned SWSH era cards compared to WOTC sets which many got played/handled with and without sleeves or lost on the playground or other issues they’ve faced.
Anyway, I could list off more factors… but I believe SWSH returns will be more linear and less exponential than WOTC unless the demand for them far outstrips the supply at some point. It’s really apples to oranges to me and I don’t think what worked in the past will work the same in the future in terms of ROI.
None of them are rare. They have all been readily available at retail through most of an incredibly popular time in Pokémon TCG history- a time in which collecting, which includes keeping product sealed, was incredibly popular, not necessarily the game itself. For returns to happen, either popularity will need to continue to rise or most of it is going to have to be opened. It’s a big risk.
there will always be buyers for this stuff. The quantities are going to stop substantial gains but there isnt much thought needed to buy them dirt cheap and sell them later for more.
Feels crazy to use that amount of storing space for long term investment, that also has to cost something especially if intention is to keep it like that for years or over a decade
I’m sure Rudy got a sweetheart deal (like $20ish per etb) in such a mass quantity and will sell for years to his already paying patrons, and he has the patience to wait for them to mature into reasonable gains. Nothing too out of the ordinary considering his mantra and history.
modern sealed will go up over time. like others have said will not be as great as wotc. But an 80$ bb can easily be 500 in many years. Rudy seems to be taking advantage of cheap prices on sealed and sees an investment opportunity ina growing hobby and Id do the same if i had extra cash to speculate with.
and access to his prices…
I know its taboo to talk about but I suspect his prices are shockingly cheap to most people. Its one thing to buy an etb at 30 and wait for 60, but another entirely to buy at 10-15 and wait for 60 but be fine dumping at 30 if you need to. There is essentially no risk
Agreed, there is likely nobody who has a cost basis as low as his, simply because of his buying power. The value of turning millions of dollars of product into liquid cash cannot be understated.
TVOM/ inflation + initial cost basis (including his total investment to get his current market position and access to suppliers) + liquidity risk (large volume of potentially illiquid product) + reprint/ market demand/ shift in consumer habits + cost of storage + opportunity cost + this is an actual job/ this is a fuck ton of work
not saying this is necessarily a bad move for him, but for anyone thinking of doing something similar, just put 20k in an index fund and compare in 10 years.
Yeah certainly for Rudypoo the margins will be bigger because he gets the lower initial distribution prices, and because his sales and dispatch methods will be relatively cost efficient. The ROI will probably be significantly better for him versus placing all that capital in an index fund. He is very shrewd though; he’s alluded to the fact that he has multiple sources of income (including high yield dividend funds and rental properties) that would sustain him regardless of whether all his TCG stock burned down, so where sealed TCG products are concerned the juice is obviously worth the squeeze for him.
To be honest I think given the YOY performance of many sealed Pokemon products, eBay sellers who are used to the sales process and have things pretty well nailed down will probably experience a better return from buying, holding then selling certain Pokemon products compared to what they’d achieve from the average index fund. If they’re willing to do the extra work an accept the added risks, of course.
Edit: out of interest I just looked at the figures for Steam Siege (LOL). Assuming an original purchase price of £75 GBP in 2016, and an approximate 2024 sale price of £300… minus £50 from 13% fees, postage costs and other miscellaneous costs, that’s a take-home sale price of £250. Minus the initial £75 cost, over 8 years that’s approximately an average annual return of 30%, beating out the SP500 and probably many other indices. Also I’m shocking at maths so somebody please tell me if there are any glaring errors in my calculation! So basically I guess Rudy’s experience of Pokémon is that even if he invests in the shittiest of sets, he’s probably gonna take home a better ROI than other passive investment routes.
Your calculation shows a return of 233% over 8 years, but that doesn’t equate to 30% per year. If my calculations are correct, a 30% return yearly would equate to an 815% return over 8 years as it compounds (1.3^8). I also suck at maths so I could be completely wrong as well hahah
Edit: everyone please ignore the attempt at math in my trainwreck of a post.
Yeah, I mean I know year-on-year introduces the compounding effect but I was too lazy to ChatGPT it! So just divided 233 by the 8 years for an average return over each 12 month period. But then again I don’t know for sure if it ‘should’ be calculated that way, it just sounded right when I was typing it in the calculator!
Edit: ok so I think I’ve considered the maths totally wrong and should have done the annualised rate of return all along
JoshB
If I buy something for £75 8 years ago, then sell it for £250 today, what is the percentage annualised return?
ChatGPT
To calculate the annualized return, you can use the formula:
Annualized Return=(Final ValueInitial Value)1Number of Years−1Annualized Return=(Initial ValueFinal Value)Number of Years1−1
This seems pretty on brand for Rudy in Pokemon lol for how many arguments I see (and tend to agree with) about why modern wont go up, im starting to feel like all that just doesnt seem to matter and itll go up anyway. I dont have a dog in the fight either way, im just kinda watching from the sidelines as modern continues to be insane against all expectations lol obviously, things can and will change as these sets age, but especially for Japanese modern, there is just no end in sight for the madness.
FWIW as a predictive text engine, GPT is not equipped to do proper math. If you ever want to prove that out, ask it to make a simple amortization table for you – it won’t be able to even properly multiply the interest rate by the principal to get the right interest expense in a period.
Case in point, the value that it gave you is NOT the annualized return. The annualized return would be represented by the equation:
FV = PV * (1 + r)^n where: FV is future value, PV is present value, r is the rate of return and n is the number of years. Working backwards to get r, you get 16.2%. This can be validated with any online annualized return calculator.
TL;DR: GPT is a great assistant for the right things. Absolutely not trying to dunk on you, just making sure that you don’t rely on its shoddy calculations for anything important in your personal life.
