So I was just scrolling around Ebay and I noticed a huge amount of Shadowless Charizard PSA 9s are listed. If I am right like 14-15 copies for sale at the moment. How come there’s this insane supply of shadowless zards at this moment, while all other shadowless holo’s are getting sold pretty fast.
Is it just the momentary supply or is the price too high?
Also, as a seller, why would you still keep listing more and more zards. You are only driving the price down, giving urself worse odds to get a sales number you want and only creating much better negotiation terms for buyers. Can’t really understand why sellers do this.
I live in a major city (Phoenix) so I have a ton of cards to sort through locally through Offerup/Letgo/Craigslist. I think local people selling their childhood binders that come up kind of give me a good handle on what is truely rare out there as compared to eBay which has almost every card available at all times.
For example, I see gold stars in binders maybe once a month or so. Base unlimited charizards I see posted everyday.
Interesting for shadowless and 1st edition base, though even though we are told both had only one print run, I’m guessing that the shadowless print run must have been a lot bigger.
I probably see a shadowless charizard come through maybe once every two weeks? Rarer than unlimted for sure, but 1st edition base charizard? I see that maybe once every 6 months. Truely doesn’t come up almost at all.
just my two cents from a single data point but thought I’d give you my thoughts.
People have this weird belief that selling a card makes the value fall. Sure if every single one of the 369 shadowless PSA 9 Charizard was held for the next 6 months and literally 0 of them traded hands then the next one to do so would likely exchange hands at a higher price. That’s what people get all worked up over when “flippers kill the price” selling through PWCC. That would be a very artificial thing to have happen for such a liquid and relatively common card as this. Cards changing hands and price history being established is healthy.
The fact is @robbiegrass that 14-15 people just happen to be sellers of the card at the prices they have listed. For what reason? I don’t know and it doesn’t ultimately matter. Could be to take profit on a card they have much less into, could be to cut losses on a buy at a recently inflated price, could be changing collection goals or bills coming due. Could be moving out of collecting or funding retirement. Again it doesn’t matter.
People need to wake up and realize that if a seller is selling at auction or with a “low” buy it now they are making the decision to exit their position in that card at whatever price the market deems appropriate. (I seriously had multiple hate/nasty messages over auctioning my PSA 10 crystal charizard and “killing the market” for it, lol). Is it less than if they waited out for a buy it now auction? Sure, maybe, but not even always the case. But in the long run regardless of how the cards are sold they still find a proper equilibrium price of supply and demand in the end. Auctions and flippers may increase the amplitude or noise of the ebbs and flows, but they don’t realistically or to any real amount affect the price of items over the long term.
E.G. Look at Lapras selling for $1,000 a while back. That wasn’t a sustainable “real” price. The card was artificially scarce and low pop due to the fact not many people had graded it yet. Once everyone saw that price Lapras flooded PSA subs and the price came back down due to “flippers” in many cases I’d suppose. The flippers didn’t kill the price of the card, they just helped it get to it’s true, more realistic price quicker. Anyone sitting around during the fall from $1,000 to ~$400 and not selling their own copy didn’t make out too well as you suggest the PSA 9 shadowless charizards do. Do I think the charizard is going to be the same situation, no but still it isn’t always true that holding out longer will guarantee higher prices at all times.
Well put. Everyone please please internalize this; it’ll make it easier for all of us (both in terms of future purchases and in terms of forum content).
To make it more digestible in a TL;DR
And finally, just to rehash this, the price floor of all pokemon cards is probably around a few cents (cardbord + ink + foil). It’s collectors like us that give it value due to nostalgia, perceived rarity and desire, etc. If you’re buying a card with the majority intent of selling it, you are running counter to what gives the card its value and are in for a bad time… in the long run (unless you know what you’re doing).
But I do understand it’s all about supply and demand. That’s why I am asking; do you think the current price is justified, or do you think the price will drop more as demand at this price point may not be high enough yet. And if equilibrium of price has not been found yet, at what price do you think demand will take over supply again. I know alot about markets and how they work, I daytrade alot and I also keep a close eye on the Pokemon market and supply and demand.
The current supply on Shadowless zards vs other shadowless cards was just something that stood out when I was analysing the market. Not drawing any conclusions myself here
Perfectly good question! That’s a hard to answer, as you would need to understand what most collectors want a PSA 9 shadowless charizard for. Me personally? I would strongly desire a PSA 10 (I’m a perfectionist kind of collector, and who doesn’t want a PSA 10 Shadowless Zard, second in command to 1st Edition?), and would pay much less for a PSA 9 (I can’t even tell you a price since I have no desire to acquire it) since I don’t really love the artwork/have little memories/desires tied to it, and I don’t think I’m the only one.
A good population to track in this case is how much people who are shooting for a complete PSA 9 Shadowless Set are looking to buy the charizard for.
Note: Btw, regardless of the 9 zard’s price trending upwards or downwards, it’s a great example of why a PSA 9 in this case is so much cheaper than a 10.
Very interesting however to note the differences in the PSA 9/10 gap between various sets and sometimes cards within sets.
I mean look at some sets like Skyridge where it is barely 2x. Then you have sets like shadowless where it is 10x and some where it is more. Sometimes it correlates with pop proportionally but not always. The math, psychology and all the other factors behind why prices are what they are is fascinating and it is annoying to see it occasionally reduced to “flippers be flippin” or “PWCC nuff said” here.
It also depends on manufacturer. My estimated PSA 10 English cards come back 10s far less than half the time. My Japanese Grading’s produced about 90-95% 10s. I’ve always operated with that discrepancy in mind. For example, I have most my perfect English graded but only a very few of my japanese…even valuable ones.
The fact that they are still selling at around $1500 with that many listed is really strong. One year ago the card sold for around $500 with multiple examples selling each month. When something spikes as sharply as this card has it’s really no surprise that people are going to look to cash out. The incentive to sell is there. Also, Charizard sells the most out of any other card in the set. It’s not that there’s a huge supply and they sell slowly. They sell quickly AND there’s plenty of options. It’s just a larger pool of interest.
My data shows 107 PUBLIC sales since two years ago today. That’s the equivalent of one sold every week. Pretty incredible really. If you could see all the private sales too I’d bet it would at least be one sold every five days. No other Shadowless holo sells like this. Charizard dwarfs them all in volume and price.
All that said, I’ve got no plans to sell mine. If the price drops drastically I’ll be able to continue collecting them.
OP, I know you think this card should bring $3000 and it will likely get there eventually but it has actually been rising steadily like Tem4Elf just mentioned. It went from $500 last summer to $1000(when I bought mine in October) and then there was a crazy peak at close to $3000 which wasn’t really sustainable in such a short amount of time so I actually feel like the card would not bring much more than $1500 right now even if they weren’t a dozen different people listing it at a given time. It might be a $2000 card if supply was lower.
I agree with you that it’s probably wiser to be patient if you’re looking to sell one, but these people have their reasons as gottaketchumall stated and it’s really none of our business. Maybe some of these guys paid $500 or less and are most happy with that ROI.
I am still happy with where the price is at momentairly. All markets have to consolodate or retrace from time to time. it’s only healthy. We are currenyly in a buyers market and I am currently only looking to accumulate more cards, not planning on selling any at all. Just wondering why the supply is still that great after a nearly 1k price drop. Honeatly I think bears will run out of gas soon as theyll have no cards left to sell and bulls will take over again. Im slowly noticing the same with crystals and shinings.
There was a huge supply for both crystals and shining aswell, now I am accumulating and it seems more people are. Sellers seem to slowely run out of steam on them . I love to watch the correlation between supply and demand and price
. I love to watch the correlation between supply and demand and price