Ok, so this is going to be a loaded question, but for those of you who are wiser and more experienced than I am, in a purely economic view, using any relevant historic examples (if applicable) and laying out your logic/reasoning (if possible), what do you think will be the long-term price trend of pokemon cards (and if they are all similar in terms of what drives their prices, gaming cards in general such as MTG, Yu-Gi-Oh, etc.)? Try to be as specific as possible if you have the time (as I’m sure staple cards/sets, for example, will have a different trend than less popular ones).
Long-term as in 25, 50, 100 years, even generations from now.
I’ve contemplated leaving them behind for my future children to have (assuming their prices continue trending upward), but if I leave them behind, they’d function more as an asset than anything else. I’ve grown out of Pokemon/Yugioh (though the shows still have a special, significant place in my heart ), and would rather invest in stocks/mutual funds with what I’d make from my Pokemon/Yugioh cards… but if they grow to anything like what old baseball cards are worth right now, of course I’d want to keep them, haha (who wouldn’t?).
Any answer, brief or lengthy, is appreciated! Heck if I’m completely off about this lmk!
I think everyone wants to know the answer to this, but no one can predict the future. #buzzkill
I would say though, we are already in the long term game. Pokemon is 20 years old. Also, I personally believe the 80/90’s - Current generation are more focused on non-sports. We grew up with video games, where previous generations simply did not have that medium at all.
In my opinion, The best way to look forward is to compare to something comparable. Basically if you phrased the question, “which will do better over time, pokemon or modern sports?” I will (and do) put my money on pokemon. I mentioned in a video, there is no modern sports equivalent to pokemon or mtg. Nothing collectible from a comparable timeline (mid 1990’s-now) is anywhere near the price point, demand, popularity and volume of Pokemon or MTG.
I think Pokemon is a real part of Japanese popular culture. I don’t think it would be too much of a leap to suggest that Japanese and Korean popular culture are closely linked, and that the things they have on offer, pop music, cuisine, professional gaming and animation as a form of serious art and media, are things that have taken the west by storm. I see Pokemon as the vanguard to this wave of far eastern culture that is now heavily influencing the west, and therefore link Pokemon’s long term success to the longevity of the culture. Consequently I think it does have quite a bright future, and will continue to attract the attention it does.
I, personally, don’t collect for an investment. I collect for the nostalgia and the aesthetic of certain cards, which I love.
Pokemoon is strong as hell, and the base set 1st ed shadowless went insane this year, and so did other wizards of coast sets.
In september 2015 I got a blastoise 1st ed shadowless for 900usd.
There selling for like over 3000usd now.
I reckon Pokemoon will suffice and stand the test of time. It gets inside peoples souls and never leaves.
The growth of the market is quite crazies. If they keep this cycle up, and episodes keep coming out, and kidlings keep getting cards like crazy there shall be endless generations after the cardz. IT WILL NEVER END I SAY.
Seeing all the children loving the show and buying uo cards now (like crazy) gives some indocation it dhould stay strong for longer.
Sun moon game sold out and ppl were going crazy for it in Australia. I just feel the cards will continue trending. The pkmn company will continue to innovate the cards over time and keep people interested in the current game and therefore keeping the whole collecting market in place (as people loom to also obtain the older cards)
@smpratte hit it on the head, it is impossible to predict and it is not out of the question that Pokemon as a franchise will tank or an outflood of super gem mint cards appear on the market causing prices to plummet to earth.
This year was a great indicator of how the future may potentially pan out or at least which collecting areas seem to gain the most value when an influx of money/buying enters the market. We saw the 1st Ed. Base Set holos soar, including grades 7/8/9 create solid price levels. The WOTC sets did the best by far and very few cards non-WOTC outside the gold stars seemed to gain any real ground.
Booster boxes seem to me as the best investment looking forward especially if you are talking newer sets, also if you are able to grade your own PSA 10 cards from the newer sets at low cost levels, over time this should create good solid value. Alternatively if you are buying these newer PSA 10 at current prices as investments don’t expect to gain any profit or return for quite a while.
Here is another thing to consider if looking into the distant future for Pokemon investments:
The PSA pop report on every card will steadily increase especially as the vast majority of all cards are mint or better — Booster boxes especially earlier sets including WOTC will steadily decrease as people seem to love cracking to grade the cards inside, or as expensive nostalgia trips.
Pokemon IS really strong right now. I had a discussion with my mum and stepdad at Christmas when I told them the Illustrator card sold for $54,000 - and they said that it’d be dead soon.
I commented to Mum that she said the same thing to me 20 years ago. The two of them acknowledged that with some surprise.
So, considering this, I think we can assume that Pokemon will continue to go strong for quite some time now. Whether or not it will continue for 50, 100 years now? We can only guess.
To be honest, I agree with you & less with the rest. Aside from very limited/rare cards (illu, trophy) and 1st edition base set, I don’t see this bubble lasting. I have a hard time thinking kids that grew up later will be interested in collecting as much. While I don’t think you should just liquidate now, I just don’t see this as a long run investment judging by the trends.
This bubble is definitely going to burst sooner than later but it shouldn’t affect the longevity of the TCG or the market by any means…we’re just in a market inflated by Pokemania v2, albeit on a much smaller scale of course (I was an 11 year old in 1999 obsessed with Pokemon, and while 2016’s resurgence isn’t quite on the same level it has definitely exposed the brand with just as much impact as 1999).
Regardless of how much or how little credit people want to give to the success of Pokemon Go as putting Pokemon on the map again as a global force, honestly it would be a mistake to overlook PoGo’s overall impact.
Yeah, PoGo was planned long ago to release as a hype-builder right before the Sun and Moon games but it went above and beyond everyone’s expectations…not only was PoGo a runaway success but it also helped literally all of society who weren’t living under a rock stop and say, “oh yeah, Pokemon is a thing…and it’s freaking awesome!” That obviously led to insane levels of hype that led to the Sun and Moon games breaking all manner of pre-order/handheld games records, and here we are benefiting to some degree from the fallout of that popularity avalanche flowing over to the TCG and all other Pokemon-related merchandise.
With social media literally making it impossible NOT to talk about Pokemon Go (and Pokemon in general) for basically a two-month span this past summer, Pokemon is not only MORE socially acceptable to be fan of or to be involved with in some way but it’s also re-established Pokemon as a dominant brand in general; Sun and Moon being hailed as a true ‘turning of the page’ to a new generation means new legions of fans who can keep the brand afloat longer than was previously imagined.
Basically, here’s what I think it comes down to in broader terms that don’t even need to touch upon market dynamics specifically; as long as:
the economy doesn’t collapse (think 2007-2008 housing market crash levels) and force people to fire-sale all non-essential goods
Pokemon as a global brand maintains a positive image for this new generation of fans and backers and keeps interest/innovation levels high
Then the TCG market will be safe and people can continue to focus on the foundational pillars that @smpratte talks about to make sure that they’re making smart decisions with how they choose to invest in this hobby.
It’s undeniable now though that this market has entered somewhat of a symbiotic relationship to the overall popularity of the Pokemon brand as a whole due to the events of 2016; if we get spikes of popularity like we did this past summer/fall we can expect more market bubbles, which is something the TCG didn’t really see as much of even when new generations of games were releasing over the last decade. It has literally been a perfect storm of events starting with PoGo in July to the Sun/Moon games release and the runaway success of Evolutions (due in part to the former items’ success) to bring the TCG market where it is now, but I would still practice cautious optimism moving forward (we can’t rely on nostalgia-based hype to be this strong forever).
It’s one thing to play it safe thinking that Pokemon’s been around 20 years and thus it won’t go anywhere anytime soon but another thing altogether to understand that we live in a fickle, instant gratification generation and anything can be made irrelevant regardless of tenure if society has moved on to the next big thing (and it’s getting easier and easier every year to move on to the next shiny hobby/brand/item because this is where the money is at).
I don’t even think there is much if any of a general bubble in the hobby. My sales before Pokémon go were about as consistent post pokego.
Also, I use sports as a metric since I dabble in them as well. I cannot emphasize how on another level Pokémon and mtg is compared to modern sports. Vintage sports are the established market, but Modern are not even close. The ideal goal is one day Pokémon or non sports can fully establish like vintage cards/comics. I think some trophy cards and 1st ed Base are flirting with that already.
Either way, growth and massive marketing doesn’t inherently mean a bubble. More specifically, defining the reality of a bubble is important as well. If we look at the gold star bubble a couple years ago, it was a fad/bubble that was driven by the short term goal of getting a full psa 10 set. Once that occurred the market regulated, not collapsed. Gold stars are still solid cards, and most likely always will be.
How I personally view pokego, evolutions, etc, it was massive marketing for a market that already existed. Similar to social media in 2011, it made more people aware of the established market.
I also think though that some of the newer members of the Pokemon TCG community may have used the PoGo and Sun/Moon hype and subsequent Pokemon resurgence to get into the hobby, as a ‘gateway drug’ if you will; maybe sales of high-end items and ‘truly’ collectible cards in the hobby wouldn’t see any sort of a drastic shift in the near-term but maybe down the line we see the effects of these new collectors (who are going to be on the younger end and cannot afford what most people in this forum would deem ‘rare’ items) eventually ‘graduating’ to the older/more rare items in the hobby than you may have seen in the past.
I’m just going off my personal experience from what I have seen this past summer up to now - as a millenial who grew up in the middle of the Pokemon craze and completely enveloped in it along with my closest friends, i’m seeing similar sentiments to how we felt in 1999 primarily because of the recent Pokemon craze; yes, we’re establishing careers and have disposable income to spend, but we might be spending that money earlier or even in general where we might not have at all if there wasn’t a catalyst to get us back into the hobby at this exact point in time.
So, no drastic shift in how the TCG market has been for years initially but perhaps there are undercurrents that will show…and that TCPI is marketing more ‘massively’ than before is at least a very good sign indeed and I expect nothing less than than the initial Sun/Moon GX set to fly off the shelves in NA and pretty much all expansions that follow in 2017 to do the same.
Dang, that first sentence is the longest one I’ve ever seen. There were 7 commas lol. Just playing with you😇
The English base set has always been, is, and should continue to be solid. I’d invest in those rather than stocks, mf’s, or bonds.
Japanese trophy cards should continue to be strong for years to come too.
Don’t make rash decisions. Keep a close eye on the market and sell stuff besides english base and trophys f you spot trends.
I can sell a psa 10 gold star 1st ed for 1500usd in psa 10. I have followed the sales on them and thats what rayquaza and charizard are consistantly selling for atm. Mew sold in under a day for 1400usd recently.
Just curious… how much more exactly did charizard, and rayquaza, and mew go for compared to now in this bubble?
Are you talking about Japanese Gold Stars? I have seen those $1,500+ USD sales on English Rayquazas and Charizards, but have not seen anything close to that price for an English PSA 10 Mew. Actually, someone had listed an English PSA 10 Mew on eBay a couple days ago and took it down after a couple of days and the price was $700.
The card market across the board has all increased and I believe will continue to increase steadily. Pokemon is currently strong and the sports card market is definitely as strong. Not hating on Pokemon cards but in my opinion there will never be as many Pokemon card collectors as sports card collectors, but this doesn’t mean they won’t sell as good. But since new Pokemon sets still sell like crazy the Pokemon market is here to stay for quite awhile. Each year there will be new future collectors graduating from college and getting real jobs and looking to spend all that money on something. 10 years down the road kids the age 20-25 will be wanting to collect the XY sets again as thats what they got as a kid.
), and would rather invest in stocks/mutual funds with what I’d make from my Pokemon/Yugioh cards… but if they grow to anything like what old baseball cards are worth right now, of course I’d want to keep them, haha (who wouldn’t?).
Heck if I’m completely off about this lmk!
THERE GONNA GO AFTER THE OG IF THEY BECOME COLLECTORS… ive decided.