A solid long time customer wants to buy a recently submitted 1st base Charizard that I’ve pre-graded as a solid 9. Could it get a 10? Possible. Could it get an 8? Possible but even less likely.
He wants to buy it before the results are in. Keep in mind he knows me and my pre-grading system very well.
What amount would be fair to ask for considering a PSA 9 is appx 20,000.00?
With prices still rising for first ed base and the minimal downside for getting an 8 I would personally ask for the price of a 9 + a gamblers premium for the off shot 10. How high that is you´d have to determine but I´d ask for at least 25k. An interesting gamble for sure.
A determining factor is also when this card will actually be graded - the faster the less I´d ask since I´m strongly believing in increasing prices of first ed base over the next months.
Only someone living in Vegas will consider a deal like this!
Just sell him an 8, a 9, or a 10 that you already have for the price you’re both comfortable with? If not and because the long-time customer believes that the card will get a 10, even though you’ve pre-graded it a 9 because that’s the only incentive or reasoning that makes sense for this individual to want to rush and put such pressure of a sale onto you, then like the above person mentioned, price of the 9 which is the assumed pre-graded grade + a gambler’s premium you both feel comfortable with for the possibility of a 10? But definitely wouldn’t sell it for less than the price of the 9 if that is what you are asking or what the individual is hoping to get.
If the person is just concerned that by the time the card returns, that prices will be higher than today’s price and for those reasons he is stressing the sale. Because he also knows and trusts and is confident in the source of the card vs. risking (if he could even find one) of purchasing elsewhere, then how about you create ANOTHER new precedent (referring to your buddy Steve buying % equity ownership in part of your collection)… then wait for it…
Conduct the first ever (to my knowledge) Pokemon FUTURES contract deal!
He pays you the price you would take today for a 9, and does this today.
You both agree on the price of a 10 today and you both agree on some type of premium or % rate based on time or grade and all that (because you need to factor in your upcharge potentially as well as your OC opportunity cost of now being in possession of a 10 and not a 9), but he gets to “lock” in that price and understand he needs to pay that difference OR you need to reimburse him his paid $ in X days after card reception. In the event he takes his $ back because he can’t afford the new price of the 10, then you managed to borrow 20k (example of the price of the 9 you take today) for essentially 0% interest right.
And in the event the card comes back an 8, you agree to reimburse him the full amount of what he paid for the card (again interest-free loan on your end) OR you pay him back the difference of what the 8 is worth at that point. For all you know, the 8 might actually be worth the original amount he paid for the 9, in which case you’re still a winner.
You covered any possible downside, and he secures *potential* upside.
make history Gary!
100% this. Nothing about this deal Gary works in your favor, unless you’re looking for cash today. 1st base seems to be soaring, depending on what service level you submitted it at, I would wait it out. Even if it grades a 9 as expected, who knows where the 9 pricing will be in a month or two.
The going rate of a 9 (roughly 20k) + plus a premium. Maybe 15%/20%?
If it has a shot at a 10; i’d say charge at least 20.000 which is the actual value of a 9; plus a %… You guys decide that gambling % 
!
If you think it has a chance at a 10 theres no way I’d sell until I received the grade. Unless he’s willing to pay 9 prices plus a premium. So perhaps 25-30K.
One person is going to be unhappy in the end so…I’d say pass on the opportunity.
Gary with problems no one else will understand
Whats a 1st edition Charizard?
The factors you would have to take into account here are:
In theory it could be something like this:
So in this scenario the “expected value” of the card would be $26.3k.
I just took a shot in the dark with the numbers, but adjust them as you see appropriate.
Then there’s also the idea of risk tolerance and risk aversion. Does the fact that this would be a gamble make the deal more or less appealing for the buyer? As a seller would you rather take this money or would you prefer to roll the dice on getting a 10? These are subjective factors.
Ask him to buy post grade with price offers he can lock in pre-grade for 8/9/10.
Why risk it and sell before the grades are in is my tough, but im no gambler at anything in life so
My opinion would be this.
If you think that card has say a 10% or less chance of getting a 10, and maybe less than 10% of getting an 8. I would sell this card as a 9 with a 25% premium.
Seller gets a card back that’s probably worth what they paid by the time they get it back. At these rates of growth. You get the cash now, with a premium. On what likely is a 9 anyway. You are removing the risk, but also the upside. As a business, I would rather have cash in my hand above current market rate. Than take a flier on a card that’s probably just going to grade what you think it will grade anyway.
I’m just more surprised to see Gary even considering selling a 1st ed Zard in general lol
I don’t see the advantage of this deal to either party? Both ends are taking huge risks when you can both just wait to see what it grades.
Raffle it
dang gary has problems that we peasants cant even fathom
If you’re okay with losing around fifty thousand if it’s a 10 for the chance to gain around ten thousand if it’s an 8, then go for it. Chances may be low on either end and high to break even on a 9, but I personally don’t have the stomach for a deal like this.