I compiled data from the three major consignment auction houses (PWCC, Heritage, Goldin) for PSA 9 Base 1st Ed Charizards from 12/2020 to 5/2024. A floor of $15,000 is evident.
I was impressed with the consistency of the market, though auctions occurring days, weeks, or one month apart often deviated by several thousand dollars. This variability is likely due to the subjective appraisal of the card by bidders (i.e., “strong” or “weak” grade), the cert number, the stamp thickness and coloring (i.e., thick vs. thin vs. gray), the auction house, availability of BINs on eBay, among other factors.
Would be cool to go 3-4 years further back on this figure. This card was sitting stable at around $5000 for a long time until things got crazy in 2020.
Would also be interesting to see number of sales over time. It seems like fewer cards are being sold recently. Anecdotally, this card in PSA 9 used to be auctioned at PWCC every single month and often several copies in one block.
I made a video on this subject recently . . . most vintage Charizards, especially in PSA 8 and 9 grades seem to have found their floors in 2023 and stabilized into 2024.
This thread is nice to look back at. At the time I felt like I overpaid seeing a copy sell for $700 less than one I bought previously for $5300. Best purchase I made seeing it now at 20k.
I went back as far as I could on the auction house websites. The older sales can be seen on TCGFish. Note that they include many other sources including eBay and private sales.
The lowest outlier from the sample size? Because it doesn’t look like too many hit that floor
Also the fine card just posted this on ig
Obviously the numbers vary a ton and these are just single data points but the relative discrepancy is pretty normal. CGC/BGS are about equal and PSA is good but more
The floor is a value that will not be breached due to consumer demand (i.e., a minimum price). It can and will change over time. However, for the past four-ish years, that value has stayed stable at ~$15,000.
This suggests that most PWCC, Heritage, or Goldin auctions of PSA 9 Base 1st Ed Charizards will attain ≥$15,000 if they’re properly listed and authentic. Each grading company and grade will have different floors.
Estimated floors are useful for consignees and those wanting to determine their collection’s value if sold in auction. Of course, outliers may occur.
