Would like to know what everyone’s feelings are in terms of how they view the supply of raw cards, mainly WOTC-EX era and what you foresee to happen within the next year or two.
I am having real difficulty getting anything raw ungraded now, my main source is always ebay however I am finding it practically impossible to get anything near mint - mint in unlimited or 1st edition WOTC of ANY card.
Ebay has gotten to the point where if I do the usual newly listed search and refresh 100+ times a day and grab a raw card for cheap, the transaction is cancelled within 20 minutes and relisted for twice the price…what im finding is the listing is still showing in the search for those 1-2 minutes and other people are contacting the seller and basically saying they will pay more for it.
Just gotten crazy to the point I think this avenue is now pointless, this is my only source of trying to get deals as I dont know anyone in real life who collects so sourcing raw cards that way is also not an option.
Facebook Groups dedicated to buying and selling are as active as ever but its a similiar process where you simply put an offer in and you are overbid to an extreme level where after grading the card the purchaser would be at a loss (they dont know how to assess the condition and assume its say a 9-10 grade when its actually like a 6).
Im curious to see whether this was a similar phenomenon around the Pokemon Go boom and if this was the type of behaviour/market and it settled back down?
I have been in and out of the market since 2010 but I haven’t experienced anything like this so very curious to see what the view is, everything is focused on the prices of cards and the demand but nothing is really being discussed around supply of raw cards.
I honestly believe the WOTC raw card days are over for any auction sites like eBay. That critical mass point in terms of collectors has been reached, and I don’t see this changing since there is always a margin of profit to be realized from raw to graded. Too many collectors are competing for the smallest margins, and I don’t see the attrition to new collector ratios shifting enough to make any difference given the dwindling supply. Even if something like the 25th Ann brings more awareness and binder collections out of hiding, you won’t be able to get them for a “deal” on eBay. It’s too easy to sidestep eBay and sell off it, and too many viable non-eBay means to broker sales. You will have to shift off eBay to have any hope of scoring raw deals. I think about April or May 2020 was the death knell for that on eBay, unfortunately. You buy raw now on eBay, 50% chance you take a zero margin outcome on auction or BO formats. I hope I’m wrong but I doubt it.
Edit: when I say eBay, I really mean any platform in which there is a reasonable level of visibility, fb included.
This is just a symptom of the fact that more and more raw cards are being converted into graded cards. My theory is that the split between raw card collectors and graded card collectors hasn’t changed much, but that the split between raw cards/graded cards has changed a lot. So, in effect, too many cards are being graded.
We will reach a point where raw card collectors who want NM+ cards will have to resort to cracking out PSA 8s and 9s. Right now, there’s both a dearth of raw cards AND graded cards (because of the backlog at PSA). But as the supply returns from PSA, there will no longer be a dearth of graded cards but there will still be a dearth of raw cards. It’s an interesting phenomenon and I have my suspicions about how it will play out, but no one knows for sure.
I’ve picked up a lot of raw WOTC holos this year for under market value and a lot of them were good enough to grade decently but I have definitely found that things have changed in the last couple of months. Most people are listing for overinflated prices and NM+ is getting rarer.
The increased demand explains this but I also feel like something had to give way with thousands of people grading cards. The raw-graded margin was too big it was literally like printing money. I think that maybe true NM+ raw cards will continue to narrow that gap by increasing in value whilst played ones will only slightly increase
This has been something I’ve assumed is happening and isn’t really sustainable over the long term. Most new, naive flippers will take a loss only once or twice before they give up. Cardnall gaming YouTube just had a video going over exactly this scenario… Some guy thought grading any Pokemon cards = mega profits, ended up grading a bunch of newer relatively common promos as 8s, and then had to sell for cash urgently, and took a significant loss compared with the cost of cards + grading. I’ve heard on numerous occasions facebook sellers of large collections getting offers for 2x or more the going rate of the cards on eBay.
So either the price of cards needs to keep climbing exceptionally fast like it has in 2020 (so even if you buy a 6 for the price of an 8, you profit x months later), or the stream of new, naive flippers stays strong. Only time will tell, but I suspect one or both of these will dry up eventually.
Raw mint wotc (holos) were already abundant way before this influx of new collectors/virus. Competition grew and and supply is non existent, it’s basically impossible to go on eBay and casually find good deals.
Best deals can be found where not too many eyes are looking, eBay is certainly not that venue if you’re going the route of buying ungraded to grade.
I am one of those new collectors that started back up during this hype. I have been searching Ebay religiously for NM+ cards from Gym Series/Neo Sets, as those were the ones I didn’t finish as a kid. In two months I have purchased 50 NM+ holo cards from Neo/Gym at an average price of $20.50/each.
The amount of NM+ vs LP/NM cards is staggering, Id say easily 10 to 1, 20 to 1 if you count all of the MP cards listed as LP/NM lol My best purchases have been from 0 feedback sellers that were just cashing in on their well taken care of childhood binders.
Craigslist/Facebook has been a lot of wasted time driving around to see supposed NM+ collections that turn out to be LP/MP. The true NM+ card sellers all want graded 9 prices for their ungraded cards. I feel like I got a solid discount on these cards vs the current graded 8-9 prices and would have really gotten nowhere with my collecting goals without Ebay.
Overall I have had a great time collecting these later sets and the Neo artwork blows Base set out of the water. It has been fun watching the market and will be interesting to see if the market can absorb all of the graded cards once they return. Facebook Market Place is already starting to flood with the quicker turn around CGC graded cards, almost all 6-8 grades…
Except I think I was a bit naive on the timeline as we’ve already seen some attention focused on Japanese cards, though it’s still typically the big league cards (trophies and such) for the most part. English cards in “NM” condition are in short supply and even Unlimited Base set is rising by $10 to $20 over the past few months for the average holos.
I do agree with these. I’m an avid NM-M buyer of wotc cards and for the past months almost a year it has been practically impossible to fetch these, reasons are pretty obvious. Why sell for a reasonable price when you can grade it and charge triple or even more the price? Also, almost everyone gets to know what they have in their hands.
Only some 0 feedback sellers that want to cash in fast have some surprisingly good deals for good condition cards but you gotta take the risk for that seller. Overall it has reached the critical point of no return for ungraded wotc cards.
Yes and as someone mentioned, the sharks seem to be getting to those sellers even when you do find the good deals, resulting in a higher percentage of cancellations. Finally, the Pokemon market is operating in the direction of optimal competition! But even if the newer, higher paying flippers start dropping off when they get burned by overestimating the grades of the listings and getting their PSA 6/7 returns, the raw WOTC first editions and holos that are being listed are just too few and far between–from what I can tell anyway. Granted, I’m seeing some cards getting purchased for prices that are higher than they should be getting, but I am happy to let those go to whoever wants to make those mistakes. Otherwise, I am ESPECIALLY seeing many Japanese sellers on the US ebay making their last ditch efforts to get inflated prices for raw, damaged cards using terrible pictures and completely unhelpful descriptions. For a few months there, some cards I was looking for like no number blue backs, no rarities, and Cardass checklist cards seemed to completely disappear from the US ebay listings. Then as prices started dipping, out they came again in droves but still at inflated prices for such poor condition cards. I swear a lot of these Japanese sellers must just laugh at us stupid Americans for paying such high prices for “poor” condition cards–but many seem to know who the target audience is for maximizing their profit margins. For the ones who are smart enough and willing to make themselves available to the US market, I have to think they get at least triple of what they could otherwise get listing on anywhere else.
It’s inevitable these are going to go down, following 1st edition shadowless imo but of course people who don’t want to grade and just want to sell (easier) will continue to be a thing for years to come