No need for me to preface this – just read this post (for those who aren’t aware Peter Adkison founded WotC and ran it for close to a decade, so he’s literally the most credible source possible):
So this is actually pretty significant news. The print run of Alpha rares was actually nearly 10% smaller than previously believed. The print run of Beta rares was somewhere around 5% smaller than previously believed. The reason for the differential is now we know the exact split of starter decks and booster packs. It’s awesome to have precise official numbers (the original numbers we relied on were from credible sources but imprecise). Posting it here since I figured some members might find this interesting (@jonandek comes to mind).
Yeah, I thought some members here might think so! One interesting thing about it is it means that the official print run numbers for the WotC Pokemon sets are definitely out there, and likely in the hands of Cartamundi executives.
Would be fascinating to see what (if any) Pokemon cards/product he still has. He was CEO up through Neo, so I imagine that he has quite a bit. He’s never spoken about it or showed it, though. He’s actually shown some of his MTG decks before, though, and he has some pretty damn impressive stuff (unsurprisingly).
EDIT: found some interesting comments of his on Pokemon:
Zorloth thanks for posting this here. I did see it today. On the one hand, it’s not terribly different than the estimates that were already out there. Also, an estimated 5% of beta starter decks contained alpha rares which would make the actual number of each rare roughly 60 higher. On the other hand, it’s fairly monumental because it provides definitive confirmation of what had previously just been estimates. The takeaway - alpha is incredibly scarce!
It would be amazing if he would give similar information for Pokemon. One would think he COULD do it with a bit of digging. He doesn’t seem as attached to it though. I’ll ask Daniel if he has any Pokemon info or importantly any cards. In my recent re-entry into magic I managed to only buy one card from Daniel but it did put us back in touch.
Exactly; the previous estimates were relatively inexact. Tavis regularly made a point of mentioning this – that 1100 could’ve easily been 1200 or 1000. So to have an exact amount should solidify the market’s confidence in Alpha. I think a lot of Pokemon people haven’t fully internalized just how rare Alpha is. It wouldn’t be remotely surprising if there were <150 NM copies of some of the playable Alpha rares in existence. We’re talking about a nearly trophy card level of rarity. There’s no Pokemon set cards that come anywhere close to Alpha (or Beta, for that matter).
The information absolutely exists. It’s possible that the contract with Nintendo included terms that prohibit disclosure of it. Honestly, if the information was leaked, it would probably destroy many consumers’ confidence in the Pokemon card market. I did some very imprecise math on print run numbers in the print run estimation thread. And even for “rare” cards like EX Deoxys gold stars, we’re talking about minimum 10k copies of each printed, and possibly as many as 50k. Super broad range, but that’s as narrow as anyone can get with the available information. It would be amazing to narrow it down further.
I asked and reply was no data about Pokémon. Also couldn’t resist asking if he had any niche Chansey items since he had mentioned selling cards; alas, no.
I confirmed there will be no Pokemon cards sold at all. Not clear if he has any TBH. I saw a picture with 6 alpha black lotuses, 4 each of time walk and ancestral recall, 10 Mox Sapphires, and an opened starter brick of 10 sealed decks. Presumably all Alpha. The brick looked freshly opened, presumably also to confirm it was alpha as that’s the only way to know. The brick box and the sealed decks looked really minty and were all signed. Wonder if that’s all he has or if that’s just all he’s selling. Would guess (and kind of hope) it’s the latter. If it’s all he has, as epic as it is I kind of expected more.
EDIT: apparently the starter decks are all empty. #alphasupplycrashnotcoming
