First, let’s just summarize how Japanese vintage has been perceived for the last many years.
Host to the hobby’s most interesting and eclectic releases.
Generally an approachable category to break in to with lots of affordable cards and sets.
Usually has a consistent and predictable market, especially compared to English.
Often considered undervalued by western collectors.
I think western interest in Japanese vintage has grown slowly over time. I myself am a WotC to Japanese vintage convert, as I felt that when I took WotC as far as I could it was this broad new category that simulated the adventurous and studious feeling I had in the hobby when I first started. Many collectors and speculators think this market might be due for its moment in the sun and that a surge in demand and perceived value is inevitable. While these conversations have played out for a long time, I don’t think there have been any major shakeups to the status quo of the whole hobby to be a strong enough catalyst for the prophecy to come true.
But I am wondering if maybe that time is finally coming, and I’m curious what others think as well.
Exclusive modern Japanese cards are currently in the spotlight, possibly raising interest in exclusive cards from other eras as well.
Chinese collectors seem to have an inclination towards Japanese cards versus English cards, being the first major market outside of Japan itself to hold this preference.
Japanese collectors are far more activated than they have historically been and they are starting to view Pokémon cards as a collectable commodity similar to western collectors.
English collectors who’ve expended their interest in WotC cards have made the migration to Japanese vintage as a replacement (such as myself).
Knowledge and access to information on these cards, their releases, and their nuances is higher than it’s ever been.
Interest in the hobby has grown enough that incoming collectors do not always have an explicit history with English WotC, producing nascent collectors with broader starting points than the assumed and presumed heyday of the TCG.
Given this environment it feels to me like if it was ever going to happen it would probably happen soon. Consult your orbs: is Japanese vintage about to have its moment?
EDIT: There are really two categories to consider here, regular set cards and promos. I more had the latter in mind when I made this thread, but both are worth considering.
I think the art on a lot of vintage cards is too quaint for modern tastes especially when it comes to the modern alt art and trainer crowd scene. And lets face it Japanese modern is just too much fun for a lot of people right now with all the shenanigans going on.
I have a couple of thoughts, but these are just me using my own observations of the Japanese secondary markets etc. with absolutely no data to back anything up. So more feelings than facts.
I personally feel that most of the barriers don’t exist for Japanese cards today for the average collector. The learning curve is not so steep and also there are a lot of alternatives to get Japanese cards much more easier.
However, vintage is obviously not scaling the same way modern is. The way modern prices are becoming unsustainable, I feel people will either 1) Switch to English 2) Collect Japanese vintage to scratch the itch.
I think vintage promos will get stronger demand wise, maybe not price-wise, although they are supposed to go hand in hand. I see a lot of appreciation for the CD promos, GB promos, Grand Party etc. They are still very much available, gettable and are gaining a lot of traction. If Japanese vintage has to spike, it will be the promos. I think modern is too exciting for any other vintage set cards to feel the same.
“I’ve got balls, but none of them are crystal” - Sebastian Vettel
Honestly, no. Not across the board anyway. I’ve been thinking it will happen for 3 years now It’s worth mentioning that certain cards, such as crystals and shinings, definitely have stonked, but plenty have been the same price for years now.
The line of thinking has typically been “eventually people will look beyond modern set cards, and some will funnel into older promos”. While that clearly has happened to a degree, there’s so much happening in modern right now that it’s extremely easy to not find that path to the past.
With that said, a lot of vintage Japanese cards are so much less available than popular modern cards, that you only need a small number to cause a big shift. Perhaps more importantly, old Japanese cards have a very different feel to them. That is to say, you’re collecting something different enough that it can feel like discovering a new thing.
The examples I hear the most are gold stars, promos, and Base Set holos, which I agree all have potential to stonk, especially when Lillie set cards are worth multiples more. If nothing else, some people selling those now might be doing so with the intention of buying vintage.
I do think most older Japanese cards will continue to grow, but at a steadier pace. To be honest, I much prefer that; I’ve found that sudden spikes are more stressful than anything else, and being able to calmly collect cards that feel like I’m getting good deals on is much more appealing.
Edit: I feel like I should add that there is plenty in my Flipper Inventory that I’m not selling because I refuse to sell at current prices.
I wonder if modern is too attention grabbing. As these collectors expand, however, they may find JP ecxlusive promos in the future, but I wonder, from the point at which someone entered the hobby, how long does it take on average, to branch into other adjacent areas? How did they connect the dots? Started with english, moved to JP sets, then discovered JP Promos? Are vectors to variable to draw useful conclusions? I think I see rumblings of play promos growing a bit quicker. (They’re the only thing I keep an eye on.)
I think it depends on where they get their information from.
I got mine from Pokebeach and pkmncards before returning, so I was semi-aware of all the cards that had been released and what I wanted to get.
Then it just takes a single exclusive card being posted for sale in FB/IG/Whatnot to start someone on a search for similar cards.
In that sense, I don’t really think any cards that are already also in ENG will make much of a mark.
Also, you have a point about being too attention grabbing. There are so many sets these days, people can’t keep up financially, so why would they go back looking to eras they missed when they can’t even finish the current ones? Especially when the card art and styles are not the same.
I am A-OK with Japanese modern hogging the spotlight if it means less attention on JP vintage promos.
Considering the age, distribution and artwork of some of these old back and 2000s-era promos, their prices feel like highway robbery compared to modern cards.
I think Western collectors severely underestimate the population of many Japanese vintage cards. There is so much still hanging out in Japan that has not seen the light of day in decades.
A good example is the Dragonite GB Promo. At the height of the pandemic, that promo was selling for $800 in a PSA 10 and over $500 in a PSA 9. I remember seeing many of the North America-available copies sell out on eBay, which further held the price.
The following few years have seen a massive number graded at PSA. In the past year alone, the population of graded Dragonite GB Promos has nearly doubled (~90% increase: 1,869 → 3,545).
I mention supply because it is directly related to the cheaper prices of many Japanese vintage promos and set cards. In my opinion, this has largely prevented the “stonkability” of Japanese vintage cards, with an exception here or there. As long as Japanese vintage is continually graded en masse and widely available in North America, I don’t see a Western boom happening.
It is possible that the Western market will be influenced by an Asia-led increase in interest (i.e., primarily Chinese and Japanese collectors). However, I just don’t see the mainstream North American or European collector caring much about Japanese vintage.
Collecting Japanese cards is already pretty niche for non-Japanese and non-Chinese collectors, even more so when considering that the cards have less “flashy” and “desirable” artwork by today’s standards.
TL;DR: The massive supply of vintage cards in Japan is not well-appreciated or understood. Until that supply is consumed by Asia-led demand (i.e., Chinese and Japanese collectors), I don’t see major upticks in Western countries.
Vintage JP set cards I view as a slow and steady game that won’t see a massive change unless there is unprecedented demand on the horizon. I think of it like a blue chip stock, or a core + asset that will appreciate slowly over time as the hobby grows and there are “overflows” from other parts of the hobby like modern or English WOTC.
JP promos on the other hand I think are more susceptible to changes depending on the release and distribution of specific cards. If a supply constrained JP promo received 1% of the overflow of demand from the FA waifus, you would see massive demand, and not enough product to satisfy that demand. The key here would need to be a heavily supply constrained JP promo, massive unsatisfied demand overflowing from other areas of the hobby, and a spark that ignites that fuel (insert Logan Paul, Pokémon GO, stonk of your choice).
A continued slow and steady growth would easily be the best outcome for vintage Japanese collectors. I get enough excitement from watching the shenanigans of modern and English from a safe distance
While I agree with pretty much everything else you said, I’m not so sure about this point anymore. I don’t think there are as many mint vintage Japanese cards out there as you think (assuming you were referring to mint condition cards).
For example, I have noticed less and less Japanese old back holos available on eBay over the past couple of years, and a couple of the Japanese sellers I have developed relationships with have told me they are having an increasingly difficult time finding those cards in mint condition.
While your point may have stood in 2018 or 2019, I no longer think there are countless closets, attics, basements, etc. in Japan that are rife with old vintage Japanese cards. Most people in Japan are very aware of their value now.
I’ll also ride on this and mention that when I was buying CoroCoro promos last year it was surprisingly difficult to find a lot of them in adequate condition. Old Back cards were played far more than they were collected, even promos, and it really shows with what is available.
It’s worth mentioning that certain cards, such as crystals and shinings, definitely have stonked, but plenty have been the same price for years now.
