I know people might think that my comments can potentially be geared towards suggesting or challenging certain statements and opinions… buuuuuttt… on this topic I’ll confidently say that the way things are going, have been going, how things are trending, the market as whole, etc. I really do NOT think prices will correct themselves or retrace for specific and sought after graded slabs and a few of the sealed booster boxes…
But, everyone hoarding sealed product, modern and “not so modern”, might be in for some surprises. The market is nowhere near as liquid and many people are beginning to realize this. They are too embarrassed or “scared” to list their “discounted” (I’m saying discounted, because of the price they are personally willing to take, that is still way over what they paid for) sealed boxes, but don’t be fooled, they are ACTIVELY seeking buyers on other platforms and through other means, which suggests that some people might be overleveraged and became a little bit too confident in their buying habits thinking that the few recently sold public listings automatically implied the new market price for the sealed stuff they had. Not to mention, a LOT of TRADE deals have been going down, more than usual. And by trade I mean transactions that include anything but full cash payment.
A lot of the more scarce (what can artificially be seen as scarce possibly) sealed boxes are making their way into other collections by means of trade (mainly for slabs and cash subsidies) and those boxes are usually doubles, triples, part of a case, etc. that the seller has. So I expect this segment of the market to continue to fluctuate 1000%. Collectors/investors who have been focused on slabs, acquiring and grading either raw cards, binders, sets, bulk, etc. tended to stay away from also doubling their collection efforts in the sealed segment (which is normal, not everyone is as rich and wealthy as people may seem to think in the sense it’s not an easy task to both make and be willing to dish out 4, 5 and 6 figures. So they face the “problem” of maybe having many doubles, triples, dozens of them in different grades and are looking to amp up their sealed collecting and the opposite is true for those who have taken the other approach. In other words, many collectors/investors/speculators might be a little bit scared of the current market conditions and are just doing the best and most viable option which is to hedge or protect their assets/collections.
But don’t get it twisted, there is a plethora of NEW money coming in and NEW collectors/investors entering the market who have a lot more money than we think. It’s not just people spending government cheques and a couple grand, there’s big big big big money coming into the market. So don’t expect there to be some type of isolated Pokemon market crash bubble explosion lol… if and when Pokemon “corrects” itself, it’s because everything else around you and us will be correcting itself, it will not be isolated to Pokemon and your buddy who invested just as much in tech stocks will be just as equally hit, and your other friend who left the = amount of cash you spent on Pokemon under his mattress in cash, well his buying power will be much lower as well, it all works together.
I have pretty solid and factual data to be able to confidently come out and say that the buying and selling trends in the Pokemon market as well as the prices increasing and creating new market values, price floors, breaking price ceilings, etc. has NOT slowed down and is NOT showing signs of it either (while other markets and niches/sub niches, which were subject to identical reasonings for increased consumption in the same time frame, have already plateaued and began to decline or declined period. The only things that are “to come” will likely only be positive changes to the hobby, positive new products, new services and all that. So all I can advise anyone is to just make purchasing decisions based on individual goals, be it collecting goals (what you genuinely like and appreciate), investing (what you’re not necessarily in love with or find boring, but that you think holds values to others) or even just flipping and making tiny gains by buying and selling different items to help you reach your other 2 prior goals, it all works
Is the market manipulated in some way? Sure most likely, but so is 99.999% of the collectibles market and to a much tinier extent, every other market. There’s currently absolutely no reason that your groceries should have gone up by 20-30% in the last few months… it’s ludicrous. Go up by a bit, fine, but not like we’ve been seeing the past few months. But the one thing I can confidently say is the the current demand and interest in the market, the hobby, call it whatever you want is 100% organic.