Have you guys seen the dip in the staffs recently? I bought two 9s two months ago for $600 a piece and that was a good deal. Now there selling in the low 500s and high 400s what’s going on? I know the pop has gone up but not by much. The only thing I can think is that there have been recently a lot of them on the market for sale. This is making me nervous and regret getting mine back then. And back a few months ago when the pop was 4 on the psa 10 one sold for 5k then last month 3.5k now one recently sold today for 2.7k? Even if the pop went up there should not be such a high dip in price like that. Just wanted to see what you guys think cause now I’m getting worried about holding on to my two 9s 
I honestly wouldn’t worry, I think the price was so high it may have been turning people away. That and I think serious collectors were trying to get their hands on them and was willing to pay the hefty price tag, the demand may not be as high as what is on the market. I bet the prices will jump back up eventually, everyone buying them will add to their collection and bring the amount on the market down.
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I sold one of my PSA 9s for $680 in March…I didn’t really think the 9s had much staying power because the POP was gonna climb substantially for the 9s.
Now PSA 10s are a different story…that’s gonna increase in cost as it’s likely to stay low-pop due to the print quality (or lack thereof) of the Evolutions set and the way that these were distributed (and their already limited nature).
What you have to think about is STAFF cards have never really taken off and there’s a lot of hype built around them at first, particularly for Charizard since it’s a remake of the original, but when you’re flirting with prices that high for a PSA 9 people are more apt to divert funds to actually go and get a graded 1st Edition Charizard instead of “Settling” for a STAFF reprint…not to mention most serious collectors probably got their own copies out of the way already and you’re now starting to see prices dip.
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Its always like that with new charizard cards. Whoever can hold them longer, gets the most return. Also owning 2 MINT STAFF zards is pretty sweet.
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Welcome to the Pokémon market. This always happens with new releases. The market can be unpredictable at times but there are also trends that almost always follow new releases.
- Rapid Price Increase
- Price Plateau
- Rapid Price Decline
- Slow Growth
You should not regret buying the cards. Just enjoy having them. They will settle at a fair price and probably grow from there as cards find their way into permanent collections.
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This is where people get burned. People have bought it to flip it, suddenly it doesn’t sell that well anymore and the flipers try to get rid of it. A STAFF charizard with a high grade / low volume and a base set artwork will increase, no doubt in my mind.
But its gonna take time, dont stress it
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Personally I thought they were extremely overpriced from the start, and still are
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It’s not like people can just open more of them, just hold on to the cards, they will for sure go up in the future if not plateau at a certain price.
UPDATE:
The Staff Charizard PSA 10 POP is 19 and the PSA 9 POP is 120 with 178 graded (78% PSA 9+ or 10.67% PSA 10s).
www.psacard.com/pop/non-sport-cards/2016/pokemon-xy-evolutions/139659/
I think this is a good time to talk about market capitalization or why many people are betting down vs up. Let’s assume this card is selling for $3500 today as a PSA 10. That would have a market cap of $66,500 (19*3500). When another is introduced in the market, this increases the supply, but not the quantity demanded (assuming no time has passed). So should the overall value of this card jump to $70,000? Probably not. The next guy might be willing to pay $3450, so it’d be $69,000 (20*3450). This concept makes sense when the supply rapidly increases. The demand has not had time to catch up.
Pokemon markets are loosely based around these ideas as we have many impulsive buyers in our market. If you apply the same method to the 1st ed base Charizard, it makes sense as well. The Pop has risen almost 20 or 16% in the last year. I’d argue without this increase in supply the price would be much higher as it is. Demand is growing on this card faster than any other, but supply is satisfying demand. Without expanding too much more on the subject, what are your thoughts?
Disclosure: I will buy the Staff Zard someday.
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While I do agree with you on your analysis of the supply side, it’s exponentially more difficult to quantify the demand. I can’t speak much for the staff charizard in this case, but for the first edition charizard, prices have increased solidly over recent time. With the supply increasing 16-20% as you said, and price rising over time, that must mean the demand is increasing as well. This demand isn’t steady/keeping up with the increase in supply at a steady pace as we see as of right now, meaning their must be large spikes in demand (spread over time, not happening instantly/relatively quickly) that are furthering this price increase over time.
My retaliation is when, or if, will these demand spikes cease? A cease in demand at it’s current rate, given the continual 16-20% increase in supply we are seeing now, could potentially drive prices down. Interesting question gemmintpokemon !
I believe most people in Pokemon treat demand like inflation; slowly growing over time (always growing). These supply moves are quick and strong that irrespective of demand, price should go down. The 1st edition base Charizard is the counterargument to the staff zard. Demand is so strong, that price continues to increase even with the 16%+ increase in supply. You’re holding the card underwater and it’s still coming up for more air.
The most baffling part of the 1st edition zard was the 15-16k sale. Let’s assume the pop was 100 at the time and the last public sale was 10k for ease of example. Market cap jumped 500k (5k*100). wtf? There were articles, public attention, etc. But 500k? That’s crazy. This played more of the “it’s only 5k for a card I’m desperate for”, but the effects overall were noteworthy.
This is an interesting topic and comparison. I’ve noticed a few things over the past few months/ years that could really impact these numbers that I wanted to toss into the mix.
With the Staff Charizard I’d expect a sharp decline in the number of submitted copies from here on out. I think that most of these cards are now in the hands of collectors. Many have been graded at this point and (aside from weirdos like me that drag their feet getting cards graded) most that intended to submit them to be graded, have done so. So I expect new supply to taper off sharply. Though prices may dip a bit as demand has also cooled off substantially.
With Base 1st Charizard it has been very interesting lately. Over the past few months there have been many that have come up for sale ungraded. Nearly all of them, if graded, would be sub PSA 7. It’s so rare to find a NM or better ungraded card in today’s marketplace. This varies significantly from even 9 months ago when I was able to pick up multiple NM+ copies of the card for far less than current market prices. Does this indicate that fledgling sellers have become aware of grading and are less likely to sell ungraded 1st Charizards (before grading them)? Or that with popularity spikes (PoGo, Pawn Stars), word of mouth, record setting auctions that this has shaken loose the hidden childhood collections of these cards and now we are less likely to find NM ungraded cards?
Bottom line is there are outside factors at play driving demand and availability of both of these cards. I don’t think we can expect the same growth over time of top-tier graded copies of either of these cards.
It has been interesting seeing how many prepared buyers there were at $2750-3000 the last three times I was involved in the sale of a PSA 10 STAFF Charizard. All three happened in the last three months. After selling the last, I had two more inquiries about locating one. So what dip in price there has been doesn’t seem to come in the absence of demand. Rather, it seems the supply only temporarily exceeded the demand. There hasn’t been nearly as many of these as people tried to make it out to be when they first were released. Historically, STAFF promos are also less protected than their non-STAFF, Prerelease counterparts.
What do you mean by less protected? I’m guessing you mean literally, the prerelease are securely sealed in those prerelease boxes. Whereas the STAFF cards were not sealed?
Never buy Pokemon cards in the first year after release, wait for the hype to die down.
Staff cards come loose in prerelease kits. I’ve seen them literally bent in half before.
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I don’t think this applies to this card. I understand that cards that are still being printed are not the best investments but considering this is in regards to a STAFF card, the quantity and quality is limited. Now, are they priced too high in comparison to other cards that are better established? Sure.
Agreed. Don’t think you’ll touch the prices of when they were first hitting the market ever again. It has a number of factors that make it unique among newer releases.
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