In the upcoming PWCC auction, there are 7 1st Edition Fossil Boxes and 7 1st Edition Rocket Boxes, ending probably at the same time.
7 of these ending at once will make the price end up all over the place.
In this scenario, ASSUME:
All boxes are the same quality
All boxes look authentic
This is my philosophy, poke holes in it.
Let’s immediately get rid of box 6 and 7. With the items ending at the same time, I feel like by the end of the group, people are panicking that they didn’t win one of the earlier boxes, so they put in the higher bids at the end.
Box 1 is going to be the first one in the lot to go, and people might be waiting for it to end to see the rough price point they should bid on for the remaining cards. Or people are wanting to bid on the first one to get it out of the way and if they lose they have time to bid on the later ones.
Box 2 might be too close to Box 1 for people to react to the ending price of Box 1, meaning they don’t get their bids in time, might be a good box to bid on.
Box 3 and 4 are the ones I think most people thinking about bidding on this lot are going to bid on, because they have thought about this process and want one of the boxes in the middle to forego the problems with the edge boxes I listed above.
But what if most people think this way and don’t end up bidding high on the edge boxes!?
I’m a gambling man. Backed up by no logic. Great setup, right? Anyway, I win the 1st auction. Thoughts being 50/50 I win or lose. With it being the first and having no price history of the other boxes I get to be part of setting the precedent. Afterwards I will either look like a fool for overpaying or a genius for buying the first before people realize what the true price is.
Bid ~75% of what I’d pay on all of them on day one. Check back final day and if and when those are outbid then bid 85-90% on one to two more at a time. Bid my absolute max on only 1 that remains if any in the waning moments.
I won a box last time like this and I got the cheapest one that night so this works 100% of the time clearly. Pro tip I won a non PWCC box that ended during PWCC auctions. I’ll probably look to do that next time too.
Just use the “group” feature on gixen so if you win one all the future bids are cancelled. Then you can vary your max bid based on quality and not worry about playing mind games with dozens of people you dont know
Does this work though? I thought gixen gives a warning about not being able to cancel bids within short time windows (which PWCC microsecond auction times would coincide with). If it works this is logistically the best but I would double check before putting 20,000 bids on 7 boxes.
Yeah, Im not going to use Gixen cus Im an idiot and will end up buying all the boxes and going bankrupt, then living in a van down by the river on the run from PWCC agents
Just felt I should point out gixen advises against doing this for items that end within seconds of each other since they don’t guarantee that it will register on their servers in time to stop the subsequent bids should you win.
I’d wait until the closing minutes then bid September prices (~$8k-$10k) on all of them and see if the prices have finished falling back to that point yet. If that doesn’t work, wait for next PWCC block. I am being semi-sarcastic, but booster boxes do still seem to be going down in value from the October spike.
One of the main reasons for that retrace is PWCC’s listing method of multiple boxes ending at the same time. They set the market standard for some of these items but it’s inevitable for the price to tank even if they could be absorbed at higher prices. Even in a bull market this format is just atrocious for these type of items.
Might aswell bid em all at 60-70% of their expected if you could afford it.
I’ve seen it happen multiple times with box breaks where the first couple packs sell the lowest of them all at 85ish% market and then almost up up the last go for 100 to 120% market. Could be flukes but who knows
