I watched a vid last night on YouTube and the channel Twicebakedjake claims that the 151 release in English will have massive supply glut like SWSH Charizard UPC did last year and that it’s basically “all hype”. For some reasons I feel he is very wrong:
151 is very popular with huge demand. Gen 1 has a massive fanbase. Most people including myself actually want to collect/complete the whole set and not just chase the most valuable singles.
S&V has been a pretty lackluster block compared to SWSH. 151 is clearly the best set in S&V yet and naturally people are going to be absorbing this set much more.
No true booster boxes on the English side like Japanese. This will inevitably impact the supply early on and maybe even longer term depending on how much is actually released.
Charizard UPC while cool is really nothing special outside of the promo cards in came with. The rest is just random SWSH packs and some other OK accessories.
Anyway, it’s entirely possible that Pokemon Company will flood the market and keep it well in stock. But at the same time, I still do not believe something like the 151 UPC is remotely comparable to Charizard UPC.
People were tripping over themselves to get pre-orders in for like $300 on the Charizard UPC because they all thought it would be like Celebrations UPC. Its the same thing now. We have no idea how it will go. Either wait for the dust to settle and be willing to pay over MSRP if you must have it and it turns out more Celebrations than Charizard, or be willing to get it at MSRP and eat the difference when it goes for $80 2 months after release.
Personally, I intend to get the Mewtwo promo as a single, UPCs take up a ton of space and I don’t really care about the metal Mew card in this one.
I think both of you are right… it will have more demand to actually open than a Charizard UPC like you said, but TPCI is no fool and likely anticipates the large demand and has the capacity it seems to meet it.
I think 151 will be abundantly available in English and you will be able to get it for near MSRP in the foreseeable future.
The English TCG hasn’t seen supply problems in a long while and I believe it’s safe to assume that TPCi has this part unter control. ETBs can now be preordered for as little as USD/EUR 40-50 and the allocation will probably be huge.
With the exception of Evolving Skies, there’s no set in the past few years that’s significantly increased in value, meaning that supply still exceeds demand even for 2-3 old sets. This shows how much of them was printed.
Even special sets like Hidden Fates, Shining Fates, Champion’s Path, Celebrations, Go and Crown Zenith have barely budged.
Besides there’s also a “booster bundle” right now which is the closest thing to Japanese booster boxes we’ll get – and thank god, ETBs are such a criminal waste of resources.
I’d also say it’ll probably behave more like CZ than the Charizard upcs. Honestly it’s kinda a lazy youtuber take to suggest that since both are upcs they’ll behave the same. One is a set full of old reprints and one is all new stuff. But you must keep the algorithm happy, please do not listen to YouTubers for advice though
There is no indication so far that the 151 release will be limited in supply. I do expect high demand, but also high supply. Just be patient and you will be able to open plenty in the near future.
There will be so much of this set that itll sit like Pogo. Its far better than pogo, but the sheer volume that English prints at will make this easy to pick up as time goes on. Once the next hype set comes around people will forget all about 151. People buying fomo listings for 151 need to not do that. There also doesnt seem to be any sort of masterball chase at this time ( it will happen) which further lessens the demand.
The 151 UPC has the metal card like celebrations. I wonder if this will mean harder to produce/print so less UPCs than the Charizard UPC? Probably more than celebrations though either way
I think there’s going to be both massive demand and massive supply. I don’t really think the lack of booster boxes necessarily matters that much. You can still get a Shining Fates ETB for MSRP or less, two and a half years later. Obviously these are very different sets, just comparing them in the sense of having no booster boxes.
I personally think the set is going to be incredibly available given enough time.
The 151 UPC has been available to preorder at Gamestop for over 2 weeks and it’s already below MSRP as Pro members get a 5% discount. There is going to be a lot of these UPC unless Gamestop is taking preorders they can’t fulfill. Either that or maybe people are turned off of preordering due to Charizard UPC. I personally think there will be plenty of this set to go around for years.
This will be the biggest problem with this set. Same like Generations, Celebrations and the other special sets. All packed in horrible packaging making the set way harder and more expensive to collect than in Asia, where it just comes in a normal booster box.
I really hope that TPCi will adapt the Japanese booster box system now they also adapted to the Japanese card framing.
So 10-11 English sets per year then? Consumerism in the US is geared toward purchasing larger products (food portions, cars, etc) so unless that changes too TPCi will keep catering to it
TCPi caters to more than just the United States. What about Europe? Oceania? South America? A new set every month will be killer for shops in the west. But if they by start stop messing about with sets for non-Japanese markets and give us just the combination of the SV1a and SV1b in one set, 100% identical to Japan. Without removing cards to turn into blister/tin/etb promos.
Yes of course they have a global reach, but the range of merchandise they provide is the outcome of its prioritised interests. Which language and country has the largest customer base, and which ones will be an afterthought?
Already a big chunk (I would almost say 50%) of the merchandise the US is getting is not coming to Europe. We have no access to the Pokémon Center webshop. Product is coming to shelves here later than the US, when it comes to restock Europe is always the last in line. With Celebrations, when everybody online was chanting that there was a restock, we didn’t even see Pikachu Figure boxes on shelves yet, the UPCs never made it to public market because all of them were sold in pre-orders and hoarded by individuals. TCPi knows the European market is booming, but they seem to also ignore it. And that has nothing to do with that they have to print cards in three extra languages (German, French, Italian) because if it had anything to do with language they would’ve never decided to print Pokémon TCG in Thai or re-enter the Chinese-language markets.
I did manage to get my UPC pre-order in on Pokemone Center site, but it sold out so quick. I still think Twicebakedjake is wrong. He made a vid last night stating that the prices in Japanese will come down once the English supply starts hitting the market, but I have a feeling it won’t be the case. Demand for Japanese is stronger than ever from what I’ve been seeing. So it could come down, but this idea of a collapse similar to Charizard UPC for such a strong set like this? No way!
it will happen) which further lessens the demand.
Consumerism in the US is geared toward purchasing larger products (food portions, cars, etc) so unless that changes too TPCi will keep catering to it
