After the craziness of the 2016 XY/Pokemon Go boom, the Pokemon community shrunk back down during the Sun & Moon era. It wasn’t until the COVID-19 pandemic and the boost from influencers in 2019/2020 that it boomed again during the Sword & Shield era.
Do you think that the Pokemon community will shrink again during the Scarlet/Violet era now that the free tendies are gone?
Why/Why not?
I think things are just getting started
Answer is yes
Every set starts out fairly weak. S&V is no different. People were whining about sword and shield, sun & moon, and XY when they first came out.
The people dumping their collection are only doing it because the economy is in the trash and student loans are about to kick back in. They need the money compared to when they bought In off shimmys with student loans paused… No one is selling with the $600 threshold looming because they want to.
When people sell because their arm is being twisted, they’ll come back.
I think it’ll shrink. I don’t think it’ll shrink as much as the post Pokémon GO spike, since the cards are worth way more now than back then. But the margins on flipping having come down will drive some of the extreme scalpers to more profitable hobbies, and a lot of casuals who came during the spike will have had their fill and move on. I think the community has grown permanently in size for better or for worse (looking at you Pokemon Center Promos), but time wise it seems right for people’s attention to shift to the next big thing.
I think anyone honestly and truly declaring a belief that the Pokemon Trading Card Game is dwindling in any way is looking through a fogged lens. It’s easy to make comparisons to “During the Boom” periods in 2016 or 2020 and assume interest or demand is going down, but when you look at growth in larger increments of time it’s apparent that PTCG is currently and has continually been on an upward trajectory.
I don’t think Pokémon has actually shrunk since the early 2000s. The Sun & Moon era was an increase in product printed. Evolutions sold out and was a wake up call distributors hadn’t experienced in ages. The result is each following set received more product, as if it were equal demand to evolutions, but of course they weren’t, which is why crimson invasion boxes were dumped.
The cooling off was similar to today. New wave of demand on previous supply = record prices. Then more supply hitting the market in reaction to record sales = lower prices. That happened across the board with graded and modern sealed, perhaps excluding Japanese. However I wouldn’t consider any of this a shrinkage.
I even keep forgetting about the taxes. damn im screwed too cause i am not a business and cant write off expenses and ebay doesnt have cost basis. I gotta save some $ for taxes!
If you get a 1099 you can file as a hobby and offset your sales by the expenses of the cards. You can’t write off stuff like shipping or supplies though
I think things will cool off but popularity keeps getting bigger. Pokémon is so so popular. I think scarlet and violet the games sold 22.66 million which puts them right behind the sales of gold and silver at 23.73 million respectively. Who knows though. Look at the recent Pikachu promo. Everyone still goes crazy for Pokémon.
at a micro level participation will probably decrease slightly until the next game is released, but at the macro level the overall community population is still growing
Oh really? Im filing as a regular individual not married so I always thought you cant do cost basis. I pay taxes on the money stated on my 1099 from ebay and unable to add in my cost of said item on the 1099. Maybe im misreading the irs doc here: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tips-for-taxpayers-who-make-money-from-a-hobby
I’ve been playing the pokemon tcg competitively (league/challenges/cups/regionals) since late XY and the beginning of Sun and Moon. IMO i have never seen more engagement, more players, and just an overall aura of excitement than I do right now. Locals were on life support or just non existent from 2017 until Cosmic/SWSH base. That isn’t the case anymore. Regionals sell out in minutes and there are always 10 or more players at all my local events.
At the end of the day, this is a TCG and the game aspect of it is the healthiest/most popular than it has ever been. It’s showing signs that its continuing to grow and becoming even more popular. Which is something i never thought I’d say after enduring the 1 to 5 person locals that defined the XY block and early Sun & Moon block.
The only people complaining that SV has started out weak are investors and Pokeboomers. Just give up and leave at this point.
What is the actual difference between Urshifu, Calyrex, Duraludon “alt arts” and what we’re getting in SV?
It’s not like the former are even that expensive now either.
Although I already know the answer, this amount of mind-warping is still incredible to me. Strip everything down and it’s really maybe 5 cards or fewer that these investobros care about - and if the price on those drop, then interest evaporates too.
How can one be genuinely interested in a set chasing 1 card? What are the odds of getting that singular card that you care about only because of the $ involved? Why would you spend more $ on chasing the card than what it’s worth?
Just move on to Lorcana, please. Or go back to crypto. I hear the next boom cycle is coming, gotta get in now before it’s too late, apes.
SV is starting weak? interesting take.
people have been saying that the hobby is dying since battle styles.
Pokeboomers 
I agree with some of the overall sentiment here but this is strangely aggressive over a pretty benign opinion. @pokenoob hasn’t been very active here lately but he’s been around for years so I wouldn’t just cast him off as some boom cycle hype investor.
honestly, i think SV have been the strongest start an era has had since like base set 
i truly can’t understand the complaints i hear. SV has been absolutely killing it imo. SM & SWSH base are probably some of my least favourite sets. I think SV rly breaks that weak start trend
I’ve thought the same which makes me think, how are they gonna top this? Im sure theyll do something though, they always do.
i feel like we’ve been lacking in the promo department. there’s been a lot of really amazing events in the past to distribute incredible cards. if they stepped up the promo game, modern would probably just explode my brain