I will be attempting to break down the various variants for Gen 1-3, and discussing their relative rarities, and covering other pertinent information with an effort to keep the information concise.
This guide is designed to be an intermediate guide, and assumes you have a general idea on Pokémon game variants, if you are looking for a guide that breaks down each variant with pictures.
For consistency, I will be using the Wata terminology for variants.
< XXX > indicates wata pop as at June 2023
The main items that I will be discussing and exploring will be as follows :
Relatively rarity across the generation
Relatively rarity across variants
Conditional rarity across generations and variants
General comments
Getting into some overarching generalizations that can maybe be seen across multiple generations that will result.
Box Type
There are two types of boxes that can be seen that can have an impact on inherent risk of damage.
Double-Ended boxes - these are boxes that can be opened from either end and have built in cartridge trays.
Y-Fold Boxes - these are boxes that can only be open from the top, and have a removable tray.
In general, the double-ended boxes are more fragile, and can crease more easily. This is due to not having the support of the removable tray that adds support and rigidity.
Distribution
There are a couple of ways that a game could be retailed.
Case Pack to retail shelves - the games would be mailed out from the distributor to the big box stores in sealed “case packs”, these packs would be opened by the retailer and placed on the shelves. This is by far the most common form of distribution.
Plastic Blister with guide - these would be packaged up with a players guide and sealed with a blister package. These were commonly sold at places like Costco.
Plastic Blister with console and guide - these are similar to the above, but also includes other items such as a console and other pack ins.
Given the above forms of distribution, there are possibilities for games to survive in good condition. Not all variants had the same amount of items packaged in blister packaging, and it is possible some variants / titles did not receive any blister package distribution. We will cover this on a case by case basis below.
Pokémon Red variants <187>:
Sandshrew Screenshot <67> 36%
Rattata Screenshot <96> 51%
Solid Rating <24> 13%
Pokémon Blue variants <194> :
Sandshrew Screenshot - red text <11> 6%
Sandshrew Screenshot - blue text <55> 28%
Rattata Screenshot <98> 51%
Solid Rating <30> 15%
Pokémon red and blue were released at the same time (Sept, 98) and yellow released later (Oct 99).
Release variants were sandshrew (red and blue) and pixelated (yellow). There were several print runs of sandshrew red and blue after release. For yellow it appears there was a big release of pixelated, and subsequent prints were no esrb /solid.
Red/Blue
Blue - red text error - it is likely that early production, they noticed the error and both red and blue text were available at release.
When they started printing yellow, they switched to ratatta (summer/fall 99). This was likely a large print run to restock for Christmas 99 and for planned demand from the release of yellow in Oct 99.
They switched to solid rating late fall 99 with some production runs as late as fall 02. I would expect that these were primarily made to demand, as there appears to be a large print of Rattata copies and gold and silver were released Oct 00. Demand for red / blue would have dwindled and limited new games would have been produced.
Conclusion: Sandshrew - although they were printed in a large quantity, the demand was unprecedented, and the survival rate would be expected to be low. Case packs of these would be extremely rare due to the fact that they were flying off the shelf. Sandshrew red text blue - these would have only be available as a small subset of the launch titles, there was no reprint, so finding a copy in any condition is extraordinarily rare. Rattata - given the short time frame these were printed before switching to solid rating, the print run is expected to be large, and there is a higher likelihood of survival than sandshrew. Solid - likely a smaller print run, but also has the highest survival rate as these were the tail end of production and any remaining unsold copies would be discounted.
The splits between red and blue are similar, so it appears neither would be expected to be more / less common.
Analysis on relative rarity by generation:
Pokémon gold and silver were released at the same time (Oct 00) and Crystal released later (July 01).
There is only one variant for Gold and Silver, and two variants for crystal (one double ender and one y-fold). There is evidence that there were multiple print runs of gold and silver, but since they are all the same variant, there is currently no way to determine which were available at launch.
Given that all prints of gold and silver are considered first prints, and there is evidence to support that there was an additional run in July 01 with crystal (around the launch of the GBA), there is a decent chance of survival of sealed copies.
Silver had proved to be more popular than gold at launch, and could account for the lower pops today (More popular = more opened and less sealed copies surviving).
Crystal was release right around the launch of the GBA (June 01), and although the GBA was compatible with GBC games, and it is seen as the least commercially successful mainline game. NA sales information is not public, but comparatively, I’d expect around a 3-4X decrease in production compared to gold or silver.
Hello, I’m new to the forum, but I read the thread and I was wondering if there is a database or thread to see the versions of the Japanese Pokemon games? Thank you so much
I could see this being extremely helpful too. I’m sure eventually I’ll try to get the gen 3 games and currently I know nothing so having this will be great
Thanks, it’s probably going to be useful to a small portion of people who are ready to transition from the basics to the intermediate for sealed game collecting. But I hope it helps someone in 5-10 years when it becomes more mainstream.
